January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Phil]

50s-style patterns will never happen here again in our lifetimes.

I wouldn’t say that. It happened in 2008..that wasn’t too long ago.

 

I suspect it will at least make an attempt to happen again in the early 2020s, during the multi-year niña.

[Phil]

Posting this on PNW subforum because no one would see it elsewhere.

 

Anyone have any idea what a "Thompson Ridge" is? Google no help. From NWS LA Area Forecast Discussion:

 

I’ve never heard of that either. Probably in reference to a study/author describing a very particular type of ridge.

[Requiem]

For anyone who enjoys tracking historic storms or wants to chase a blizzard and has time within the next 3-4 weeks:

 

- there’s the potential for a bomb in the Plains/Central US between the 22nd and the 25th of the month.

 

- there’s the potential nor’easter next weekend that could dump a bunch of snow on someone

 

- there’s the big kahuna..the “archambault event” grand finale nor’easter during the last few days of January and first few days of February, as the pattern climaxes. This one could be a monster

 

As a nerdy, obsessed weather weenie addict, amplified patterns like this get my blood pumping. I’ll drive to the most exciting stuff if it doesn’t come to me.

Monster is a word I haven’t heard in a very long time in relation to our weather. Maybe some day. I wish I could go somewhere to find some interesting weather, but I’ll have to settle for this weak east wind instead.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Monster is a word I haven’t heard in a very long time in relation to our weather. Maybe some day. I wish I could go somewhere to find some interesting weather, but I’ll have to settle for this weak east wind instead.

Wouldn’t recommend moving to the south valley.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

That one even dropped 3" here. Would be fun.

Enjoyed seeing the old weather channel crew! Thanks for posting.

Here's some more video of that snowstorm.

 

[El_Nina]

Looks like the sun will come out again next week after the rainy system passes.

Rain is now the interrupter.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wouldn’t recommend moving to the south valley.

 

What if I want to protest cops for shooting an adult who pulled a gun at a school? Seems like the ONLY place to move!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

What if I want to protest cops for shooting an adult who pulled a gun at a school? Seems like the ONLY place to move!

 

You can do it as a topless woman too.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

People that were born after 1996 really haven't seen some of our greats. 2008 was amazing but 1985 1990 and 1996 were some crazy events. I would love for some of the folks on here to experience a 1990 type outflow event. Hard to believe it can be 10 degrees here with a 60mph north wind like in december 1990.

[Requiem]

People that were born after 1996 really haven't seen some of our greats. 2008 was amazing but 1985 1990 and 1996 were some crazy events. I would love for some of the folks on here to experience a 1990 type outflow event. Hard to believe it can be 10 degrees here with a 60mph north wind like in december 1990.

 

1985, 1990, and 1996 were all major Puget Sound events though. FAR less impressive in Portland and south.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1985, 1990, and 1996 were all major Puget Sound events though. FAR less impressive in Portland and south.

 

Well we had 13-14 which was pretty memorable.  Tillamook & coastal communities hit -10 going into the Dec 2013 blast. Pacific City had 10" in Feb 2014. I think the Feb 2014 event was a mountain wave situation where the gradient is so strong it can spill all the way over the Cascades and coast range.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I looked at the 12z EURO EPS ensemble members and more of them trended better in the long range. Members 6 and 22 were the best. Hopefully we will start seeing more and more members like these two in the runs ahead.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Down to 31. Upper 20s looking likely again tonight. 

[ShawniganLake]

I wouldn’t say that. It happened in 2008..that wasn’t too long ago.

 

I suspect it will at least make an attempt to happen again in the early 2020s, during the multi-year niña.

2008 was nice. A very moderated version of what was fairly common during the middle of the last century.

[TT-SEA]

Down to 31. Upper 20s looking likely again tonight. 

 

 

SEA switched to a north wind which is a little cooler... no downsloping.   

 

Its 42 there now and 49 in North Bend with a light east wind continuing.  

[MossMan]

37 currently.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

You can do it as a topless woman too.

 

Point taken. Listing the house tomorrow.

[BLI snowman]

1985, 1990, and 1996 were all major Puget Sound events though. FAR less impressive in Portland and south.

1990 was extremely impressive all the way into So Cal.

[Requiem]

1990 was extremely impressive all the way into So Cal.

I don’t feel it was as impressive in OR and CA as it was up in Washington.

[Phil]

For anyone who enjoys tracking historic storms or wants to chase a blizzard and has time within the next 3-4 weeks:

 

- there’s the potential for a bomb in the Plains/Central US between the 22nd and the 25th of the month.

I lost my head. It’s the 18th - 20th for the Midwest blizzard. Got them mixed up.

[BLI snowman]

I don’t feel it was as impressive in OR and CA as it was up in Washington.

Have you done much research on that event? It was a contender for the most anomalous airmass of the century in CA and southern OR. San Francisco had a high of 38, Sacramento hit 18, and Bandon on the south OR coast hit 8 degrees. It was a nice event in WA but not as record shattering.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Here is a fun stat if we are going to bring up December 1990. 

 

SLE had 5 highs of 24 or lower (Counting the secondary blast later in the month.). 

 

12/20: 18

12/21: 18

12/22: 21

12/23: 24

12/29: 24

 

In the 28+ years since then

 

12/21/98: 22

1/5/04: 24

 

Totally nuts...

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Looking west from Seabeck.

 

Nice, that reminds me a lot of the view from a park where I grew up. This is the view from Beachcomber Park at the end of a peninsula, also looking west:

 

 

 

Better yet, here's one with snow (Jan 2005):

 

[Phil]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Crunched some numbers for SLE.

 

Highs of 24 or lower

 

January 1963-December 1990: 22

January 1991-Present: 2

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Here is a fun stat if we are going to bring up December 1990. 

 

SLE had 5 highs of 24 or lower (Counting the secondary blast later in the month.). 

 

12/20: 18

12/21: 18

12/22: 21

12/23: 24

12/29: 24

 

In the 28+ years since then

 

12/21/98: 22

1/5/04: 24

 

Totally nuts...

 

And yet, those kinds of events were pretty commonplace before that.

 

Sad.

[Phil]

Crunched some numbers for SLE.

 

Highs of 24 or lower

 

January 1963-December 1990: 22

January 1991-Present: 2

Some of that has to be UHI/land use related?

 

Was the station moved? At all?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

And yet, those kinds of events were pretty commonplace before that.

 

Sad.

 

Yes, that 1963-1990 period was a really good winter period though. So that is kind of comparing the present era to a high water mark. 

 

Also I believe EUG and PDX had highs of 24 or lower in February 2014. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Yes, that 1963-1990 period was a really good winter period though. So that is kind of comparing the present era to a high water mark. 

 

Also I believe EUG and PDX had highs of 24 or lower in February 2014. 

 

25 on Feb 6

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just miss a backdoor blast on day 10/11 on the 00z and then another one later in the run. Then I get slammed with this on my daughters birthday in Tulsa.

 

[crf450ish]

No one has mentioned the snowfall in the desert southwest recently. I don't have numbers, just a mere Facebook "sighting" that I stumbled across. The O.K. corral had a light dusting recently as did Carefree AZ.

 

We have family in Peoria and Scottsdale. They keep giving us incentives to move down there. It's tempting. Summer year round. Yeah, I can dig it.

[Requiem]

Have you done much research on that event? It was a contender for the most anomalous airmass of the century in CA and southern OR. San Francisco had a high of 38, Sacramento hit 18, and Bandon on the south OR coast hit 8 degrees. It was a nice event in WA but not as record shattering.

I was thinking more snow-wise. Puget Sound had the most intense northerly wind event in a long time, followed by an insane convergence zone dropping over a foot of snow in areas. Cold in addition. I’m sure the W. Valley got something, but I don’t think what we got was as impressive as that or the crazy anomalous temperatures in CA. Unless PDX and south did get a lot of snow, in which case I’ve been reading too much about only the WA aspect of that event.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

There was nothing "commonplace" about December 1990.  BLI Snowman was correct when he called it a "contender for the most anomalous airmass of the century in CA and southern OR."  "Most anomalous," by definition, is not commonplace.  Take a look at some of the records from that event.  They're insane.

 

However highs lower than my random demarcation line of 24 degrees were much more common. I posted the two dates since 1990 at SLE, here are the 17 dates in the similar time period prior. 

 

2/4/89

2/3/89

2/2/89

12/1/85

12/22/83

1/1/79

12/31/78

12/10/72

12/9/72

12/8/72

12/7/72

12/6/72

1/28/69

1/25/69

12/30/68

12/18/64

12/17/64

[crf450ish]

People that were born after 1996 really haven't seen some of our greats. 2008 was amazing but 1985 1990 and 1996 were some crazy events. I would love for some of the folks on here to experience a 1990 type outflow event. Hard to believe it can be 10 degrees here with a 60mph north wind like in december 1990.

Dude...I was a kid in the 90's (greatest time to be a kid, I swear) growing up in Graham, wa. Holy , I remember some epic events. Idk where to begin. In 1996, my mom and I made an ice dog in the front yard. Yeah, an actual life sized Labrador retriever from snow, then we misted it with a spray bottle full hot water and it turned into ice on the surface. My dad pulled the neighborhood kids and I behind the 3 wheeler around the block on a homemade sled that fit 5 kids. It was truly the Pinnacle of my childhood!

 

Inauguration day storm of 1993, I remember school getting canceled. But not before I stood a the bus stop with my neighbor friend leaning into the wind as if I was Michael Jackson on stage doing that weird lean thing he did. For real, I remember it like it was yesterday. It was amazing. I hope my kids get to experience something remotely close to what I experienced as a kid. Windstorms like that happen on average once every 30-50 years.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The most astonishing stat is SLE went 23 years (1990-2013) without recording a single digit low. That was typically about a once every 5-7 year occurrence before then. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

No one has mentioned the snowfall in the desert southwest recently. I don't have numbers, just a mere Facebook "sighting" that I stumbled across. The O.K. corral had a light dusting recently as did Carefree AZ.

 

We have family in Peoria and Scottsdale. They keep giving us incentives to move down there. It's tempting. Summer year round. Yeah, I can dig it.

I posted a video of it awhile back.

 

"On another note, snowstorm at the OK Corral! https://www.facebook...16805308810822/ "

 

https://www.facebook.com/historictombstone/videos/516805308810822/

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Dude...I was a kid in the 90's (greatest time to be a kid, I swear) growing up in Graham, wa. Holy s**t, I remember some epic events. Idk where to begin. In 1996, my mom and I made an ice dog in the front yard. Yeah, an actual life sized Labrador retriever from snow, then we misted it with a spray bottle full hot water and it turned into ice on the surface. My dad pulled the neighborhood kids and I behind the 3 wheeler around the block on a homemade sled that fit 5 kids. It was truly the Pinnacle of my childhood!

 

Inauguration day storm of 1993, I remember school getting canceled. But not before I stood a the bus stop with my neighbor friend leaning into the wind as if I was Michael Jackson on stage doing that weird lean thing he did. For real, I remember it like it was yesterday. It was amazing. I hope my kids get to experience something remotely close to what I experienced as a kid.

 

We moved to Salem/Silverton in 1989 so that through really 1996 was a pretty good period even down here...Then things went haywire. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

November 85 was a monster cold air mass for puget sound as well. Bremerton airport had 11 straight days with a high below freezing.

[crf450ish]

I posted a video of it awhile back.

 

"

On another note, snowstorm at the OK

Corral

! https://www.facebook...16805308810822/ "

 

https://www.facebook.com/historictombstone/videos/516805308810822/

Nice! I must've missed it!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The 00z GFS shows retrogression at the end of the run. Lots of potential ahead.

 

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2019011400/384/500h_anom.na.png