Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 Don't focus too much on the finer details. What I like is the overall 500mb upper level pattern. It gets pretty cold on this run though. Finer details are the difference between snow and rain. Looks chilly but not arctic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 Improvement, but still a long, LONG ways to go. It is time for the undisputed champion of weather models to make its presence known. King EURO time! 3 minutes away 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 Be prepared. 06z futures are all in the red. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 Windy. Major storm if the track shifted 100 miles or so south 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 Windy. Major storm if the track shifted 100 miles or so south D59DDDB7-969F-4180-80BA-B9AC6B2BD6BD.gifIs that seriously a map for 64 hours out? Let’s stay focused on what matters. Thanks in advance for your cooperation. 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 Is that seriously a map for 64 hours out? Let’s stay focused on what matters. Thanks in advance for your cooperation.Some people are just not team players... cmon!! Focus!!! Let’s get back to only looking at 300+ hour maps. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 FV3 is a big fat turd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 Finer details are the difference between snow and rain. Looks chilly but not arctic.Yeah and those details don't really matter until we get right close to the event. The big picture is the upper level pattern and I liked what I saw from the GFS tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 The heavy rain and winds were fun earlier this evening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 Windy. Major storm if the track shifted 100 miles or so south D59DDDB7-969F-4180-80BA-B9AC6B2BD6BD.gifMore downed trees and hydro lines for VI! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 Is that seriously a map for 64 hours out? Let’s stay focused on what matters. Thanks in advance for your cooperation.At least he kept the theme of imagining what would happen if the map was moderately different. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 The 00z GEFS shows strong blocking develop very close to our sweet spot at day 14. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 Yeah and those details don't really matter until we get right close to the event. The big picture is the upper level pattern and I liked what I saw from the GFS tonight.An improvement for sure, but Like DJ said, a long ways to go. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 Yeah and those details don't really matter until we get right close to the event. The big picture is the upper level pattern and I liked what I saw from the GFS tonight.The upper level pattern at 300+ hours is about as meaningful as precip maps at 200 hours. Both are too hazy to read into at that distance. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 At least he kept the theme of imagining what would happen if the map was moderately different.This is a hardline issue. Keep it 300+ or 240 extrapolated or keep your TRAP SHUT. #newyearnewrules 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 An improvement for sure, but Like DJ said, a long ways to go.Yeah definitely, like I said this is going to be a wild roller coaster ride. This is what I love about weather and I wouldn't want to have it any other way. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 The upper level pattern at 300+ hours is about as meaningful as precip maps at 200 hours. Both are too hazy to read into at that distance. I'm not usually this excited about operational runs but right now we got great support from the GEFS AND EPS ensembles in the long range with the retrogression signal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 It does for the CONUS. Thanks to the big -EPO. But it would be cool - to put it mildly - if -NAO joined the party later.True. I’m only talking about the quick retrograde/blast for the PNW. The downstream block makes for a much more efficient mass-displacement and retrograde. If there’s a vortex up there the PGF is zonal and you’re dragging weak positively-tilted troughs into BC while the cold slides east. Not ideal. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 I'm not usually this excited about operational runs but right now we got great support from the GEFS AND EPS ensembles in the long range with the retrogression signal.The last few EPS runs seemed to be backing off on the retrogression idea. Maybe tonight’s will reverse the trend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 This is a hardline issue. Keep it 300+ or 240 extrapolated or keep your TRAP SHUT. #newyearnewrules There is a difference, though, between posting a 384 map or saying a run at day 10 looks "promising" or "I like where it's headed". One is based purely on model output, while the other is based on pattern progression recognition. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 I haven’t seen Andrew post the CFS in awhile. Hopefully it’s showing a super duper +PNA now. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 17, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 Windy. Major storm if the track shifted 100 miles or so south D59DDDB7-969F-4180-80BA-B9AC6B2BD6BD.gifEvery dang storm is too far north or two far south. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 I'm not usually this excited about operational runs but right now we got great support from the GEFS AND EPS ensembles in the long range with the retrogression signal. That's fair. If there's a clear signal in the ensembles that far out, it can definitely mean something. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 There is a difference, though, between posting a 384 map or saying a run at day 10 looks "promising" or "I like where it's headed". One is based purely on model output, while the other is based on pattern progression recognition.Flatironing in progress! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 Dr. No is running. #Suspense Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 EURO es no bueno. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 Flatironing in progress! The fun thing about "flatironing" is it can kind of mean whatever you want it to! Nice and easy. But way to give a reasoned, well-thought out response. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 Not in this given situation.Um, climo is always the most likely outcome. Unless you're wishcasting Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 17, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 EURO es no bueno.Cancel winter, EURO is awful. What a trashy model. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 More Greenland/Arctic block on the Euro thru hr144, however the upstream wavetrain is a tiny bit flatter. Not sure how it will end up. Cold for somebody. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 EURO es no bueno. You can ALREADY tell??? Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 The fun thing about "flatironing" is it can kind of mean whatever you want it to! Nice and easy. But way to give a reasoned, well-thought out response.Settle down. Both are a case of sticking your arm a little too far down the rabbit hole. It’s okay. It’s there and it’s fun to do. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 You can ALREADY tell???144 hour extrapolation! 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 More Greenland/Arctic block on the Euro thru hr144, however the upstream wavetrain is a tiny bit flatter. Not sure how it will end up. Cold for somebody. Looks fairly similar to last night's run at this point. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 144 hour extrapolation! Bingo. You are using the same logic as someone who "likes where it's headed" at hour 240, based on your pattern recognition skills. It's not the same as just posting model output. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 17, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 I’m going for the CFS, which has time and time again proven much better with weather in general than the crappy EURO and GFS. It handles every snow event absolutely amazingly. Waste of time looking at any other model. 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 I’m going for the CFS, which has time and time again proven much better with weather in general than the crappy EURO and GFS. It handles every snow event absolutely amazingly. Waste of time looking at any other model.#lildewey 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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