January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2 energy in Bering Sea a notch further west

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[Requiem]

Day 2 energy in Bering Sea a notch further west

 

Is that more in line with the EURO yet?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

This is like the start of the 3rd qtr of a ballgame.

[Gradient Keeper]

Is that more in line with the EURO yet?

Through Day 2 18z is very similar to the 12z ECMWF

[Requiem]

Through Day 2 18z is very similar to the 12z ECMWF

 

The similarities are striking, actually. FV3 and GEM are in agreement through day two as well.

[Gradient Keeper]

Looking at the 500mb pattern Days 2-3 it doesn't look like the GFS is yet moving towards the ECMWF/FV3.... Not yet anyways. We'll see how days 4-6 progress, but I don't think so.

[jakeinthevalley]

Looks like PDX NWS is leaning towards the GFS solution in the longer range

[BLI snowman]

Looking at the 500mb pattern Days 2-3 it doesn't look like the GFS is yet moving towards the ECMWF/FV3.... Not yet anyways. We'll see how days 4-6 progress, but I don't think so.

 

It's looking a fair bit healthier at Day 4.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

Arctic air much further west in BC compared to previous runs. Hmmm....

[MossMan]

Looks like PDX NWS is leaning towards the GFS solution in the longer range

NWS will pick the ugliest model to go with until probably Friday I bet. If the Euro still looks like the Euro of today on Friday then they might bite!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Looks like PDX NWS is leaning towards the GFS solution in the longer range

 

Safer bet at this point.  I'm going to expect this solution and if anything better happens then great.

[Requiem]

Looks like PDX NWS is leaning towards the GFS solution in the longer range

 

I'm sure it's just to be conservative right now, as they don't want to get hopes up.

[Gradient Keeper]

It's looking a fair bit healthier at Day 4.

Yep. GFS is moving a bit more towards the ECMWF/FV3.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

ICON also shows the block strengthening Day 4-5 with a good degree of amplification.

 

The 12z AUSSIE looks to be on board.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

 

Compared to 12z

[Esquimalt]

GFS gets so close.  Much improved over previous runs. 

[Gradient Keeper]

GFS still lacking the tilt/amplification of the EURO, but gradually moving towards that direction.

[TT-SEA]

Not that it means anything since its the 18Z run... but its much more like the 12Z GFS than anything close to the 12Z ECMWF.

 

Not surprising though.   I think the 00Z GFS will completely cave.  

[Gradient Keeper]

I like what I'm seeing. I like the trends. Look for improvements on the 18z GEFS.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Model wars suck like this.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Arctic air closer on the 18z for sure. Right at the border at hr 138

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6 merger with block, Aleutian ridge occurring much sooner this run.

[Gradient Keeper]

Past 4 GFS runs centered at Day 6.5. Dramatic improvements.

https://imgur.com/WubdOZh

[Blizzard777]

Looks like PDX NWS is leaning towards the GFS solution in the longer range

That should work in our favor

[Gradient Keeper]

18z FV3 running

[jcmcgaffey]

10day forcast just updated to show snow next Monday and Thursday for Seattle....doesnt give totals though.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

NWS will pick the ugliest model to go with until probably Friday I bet. If the Euro still looks like the Euro of today on Friday then they might bite!

Yep.

[Perturbed Member]

 

Past 4 GFS runs centered at Day 6.5. Dramatic improvements.

https://imgur.com/WubdOZh

 

 

Pretty decent trend there. Just need the 00z GFS to fully give in. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Not that it means anything since its the 18Z run... but its much more like the 12Z GFS than anything close to the 12Z ECMWF.

 

Not surprising though. I think the 00Z GFS will completely cave.

I wouldn't be surprised if the GFS takes a bit longer but I hope it gives in ASAP so we can have full model consistency across the board.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Day 4

Arctic air much further west in BC compared to previous runs. Hmmm....

Typical model push back. To be expected but hopefully only delays and does not equate to not delivering. *FINGERS, LEGS, ARMS and EVERY HAIR CROSSED* 

[Requiem]

Typical model push back. To be expected but hopefully only delays and does not equate to not delivering. *FINGERS, LEGS, ARMS and EVERY HAIR CROSSED* 

 

I thought that run was actually quite a step towards the EURO/EPS runs....

[luvssnow_spokane]

I thought that run was actually quite a step towards the EURO/EPS runs....

 

It was, just a bit delayed but progress.

[Jesse]

It was, just a bit delayed but progress.

“Typical model pushback” doesn’t make any sense in this context, then.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I haven't seen the 12z JMA posted yet but it's on the train.

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

18z FV3 at day 5. Here we go.

 

[Guest Sounder]

I think it's safe to say that the GFS operational is the outlier at this point. Very good chance the 00z caves tonight.

[Esquimalt]

Wow marked ensemble improvement again!  Ensembles averages now bottom out at -7˚C here. 

[Deweydog]

ANOTHER nice day!

[van city]

ANOTHER nice day!

Tim approved.