MossMan Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Nighty night... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Beneath all the arctic excitement there has been a definite wetter trend in the models as well. Glad to see it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 MJO over the Maritime Continent once again showing its significance. Best LR tool out there imoThat favors a cold pattern for us? I have some knowledge of the MJO, but it is VERY limited compared to you and Phil. Your analysis of it, how it affects long range patterns is appreciated. 6z GFS in 1 hour 49 minutes 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 It’s interesting that Andrew is showing maps that don’t look as good and nobody gets on his case but if Tim was doing that people would be going nuts on him... Bingo. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 CA06A03A-C3B6-44AE-9988-C517004C7901.jpeg Is this real life?Is this just fantasy?Caught in a landslide no escape from reality. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 That favors a cold pattern for us? I have some knowledge of the MJO, but it is VERY limited compared to you and Phil. Your analysis of it, how it affects long range patterns is appreciated. 6z GFS in 1 hour 49 minutesWhen the MJO propagates into the EHem, specifically over the Indian Ocean/Maritime Continent, the jet relaxes and allows heights to rise over the Aleutians. Doesn't guarantee a cold and snowy scenario, but it presents the opportunity. Nice thing about the MJO during an El Nino, is that it can and often will override the current background state, giving us some potential in between the split flow. I thought we had a chance at something good about a month ago, and while we had some good model runs, nothing ultimately came together except a couple wet flakes that last all of 30 minutes. I've been watching this time frame for weeks... would love to see us all get some snow 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 With the consistent EPS as the backdrop... it seems like all the models are just figuring it out at their own pace but all headed to the same point. And the 00Z EPS is no exception... it has been rock solid and has not wavered. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 When the MJO propagates into the EHem, specifically over the Indian Ocean/Maritime Continent, the jet relaxes and allows heights to rise over the Aleutians. Nice thing about the MJO during an El Nino, is that it can and often will override the current background state, giving us some potential cold and snow in between the split flow. I thought we had a chance at something good about a month ago, and while we had some good model runs, nothing ultimately came together except a couple wet flakes that last all of 30 minutes. I've been watching this time frame for weeks... would love to see us all get some snowAhhh, and this favors the -WPO tanking shutting down the Western PAC jet. I get it. This all sounds very promising for us. Thanks. An error occurredYou have reached your quota of positive votes for the day 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 And the 00Z EPS is no exception... it has been rock solid and has not wavered. Looks nice. Does it drop southward next frame? Thanks for posting all the EPS, ECMWF maps. It is appreciated. 6z GFS in 1 hour 36 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Looks nice. Does it drop southward next frame? Thanks for posting all the EPS, ECMWF maps. It is appreciated. 6z GFS in 1 hour 36 minutes Yep... follows the operational run. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 And the 00Z EPS is no exception... it has been rock solid and has not wavered. The 00z EPS is much colder than both the GEFS and GEPS at day 10. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 I'm going to take a short nap. Will be back for the night shift. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 The 00z EPS is much colder than both the GEFS and GEPS at day 10.Yeah. Looks like a real northerly cold shot. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 I still see some potential for colder runs ahead. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 And the 00Z EPS is no exception... it has been rock solid and has not wavered. Cut the crap, Tim. 3 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 35 here. Got sunburned earlier. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Looks like the cold is a lock now. This EPS run was way colder for heights and 850mb temps. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Looks like the cold is a lock now. This EPS run was way colder for heights and 850mb temps.Hopefully we get some snow during the onset that sticks around for days...or longer!! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 30, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Looks like the cold is a lock now. This EPS run was way colder for heights and 850mb temps. Even colder than before? Wow. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Looks like the cold is a lock now. This EPS run was way colder for heights and 850mb temps.I agree... the EPS has led me to believe this is an absolute lock. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Hopefully we get some snow during the onset that sticks around for days...or longer!!The snow that falls is going to be around for quite awhile. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Hopefully we get some snow during the onset that sticks around for days...or longer!! I like the odds of that for convergence zone prone areas up north. Several euro runs have shown that signature up there. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Perhaps a repeat? https://youtu.be/lhc_8_W3hRM 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 00z NAVGEM in comparison to the 00z GFS Ridge looks a bit more potent and the cold air digs a bit further south. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Looks like the cold is a lock now. This EPS run was way colder for heights and 850mb temps. The OP GFS is the warmest model around now and even it still brings -8c 850mbs to PDX and is itself a warm outlier relative to the GFS ensembles. I think we're in about as good shape as you really can be 4-5 days out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 It seems pretty crazy how suddenly this showed up. The weather app now has snow of some sort in the forecast each day Sunday to Wednesday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 The OP GFS is the warmest model around now and even it still brings -8c 850mbs to PDX and is itself a warm outlier relative to the GFS ensembles. I think we're in about as good shape as you really can be 4-5 days out.It’s crazy to think that just what two days ago the ensembles hardly had any members running below 0 mark for the 850’s through the extended. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 6z NAM compared to 00z air mass is much colder in BC when looking at both the 850/surface temp anomalies and has progressed significantly further south at Day 3.5 nice. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 6 NAM compared to 00z air mass is much colder in BC when looking at both the 850/surface temp anomalies and has progressed significantly further south at Day 3.5 nice. We are moving into NAM territory...it’s getting real now!! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 We are moving into NAM territory...it’s getting real now!!Yep! Question is whether or not a good chunk of that makes it southward over us. Awaiting the 6z GFS in 26 minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 6z NAM compared to 00z air mass is much colder in BC when looking at both the 850/surface temp anomalies and has progressed significantly further south at Day 3.5 nice. That is some bloody serious cold! The Fraser outflow will probably be brutal with this. Often lower level temps are colder than would be expected based on 850s alone with type of air mass. I still can't believe this kind of cold will be available when so much cold is east of the Rockies at present. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 30, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 This is exciting! Would anyone have expected these model outcomes looking at them a few days ago? Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 With all due respect' I believe this will be our finest hour! Where’s my white vest 32* and back to sleep 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 Is it time to get excited yet? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 This is exciting! Would anyone have expected these model outcomes looking at them a few days ago? The FV3 and ECMWF ensemble were keeping the hope alive when other models backed off. The FV3 did back off on this cold wave for a couple of runs, but still got it cold eventually on every single run. Assuming this verifies I would give the FV3 an A-. This could make tracking coming cold snaps much less dicey in the future. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 That is some bloody serious cold! The Fraser outflow will probably be brutal with this. Often lower level temps are colder than would be expected based on 850s alone with type of air mass. I still can't believe this kind of cold will be available when so much cold is east of the Rockies at present.Yep, definitely is! Can you fix this? An error occurredYou have reached your quota of positive votes for the day Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 30, 2019 Report Share Posted January 30, 2019 1:20 AM Columbia Basin cold poolContinuing to deepen and expand. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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