January 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest

[MikeInEverett]

We really can't deny the westward trend, it is unmistakable at this point and has maintained through several runs across multiple models. This wasn't a big snow maker to begin with but by shifting the trough that far west we end up neither all that cold or snowy. It is quickly turning into just a ho hum below average cool airmass. I think the fear over the recent runs is justified and not an overreaction.

 

That being said it isn't over until the euro waves the white flag.

Oh yeah things definitely have not trended for the better, but some of the reactions were just a little over the top. Still time for things to change for the better and lots of potential coming up over the next 10 days.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS Day 1

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

ICON is a bit west too but it still looks quite good.

 

 

ICON is snowy! You *******, Hasselhoff!

ICON looks pretty solid still.

If I'm not mistaken I think the ICON for the initial snow event last February 18 did well. It kept on showing snow for parts of eastern PDX Metro and that's what happened. I'll have to take a look back at last Februarys thread to see for sure.

[The Swamp]

Minor wobbles or wibbles as the low drops off the coast can bring dramatically different results to different areas from central Oregon to Vancouver Island.  We'll just have to wait and see if we get to build snow monsters or not.

[BLI snowman]

00z appears to have shifted a bit east again. Should be a less crappy run.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The ICON looks like it s going to give W. WA a snow event next Thursday.

[Deweydog]

ICON.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Wow look at the snowstorm on the icon late next week!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow. ICON brings a nice trough in late next week. Would be a good foothill snow pattern.

[Esquimalt]

The ICON looks like it s going to give W. WA a snow event next Thursday.

Switches over to rain at the end though as that low slows down too much. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Switches over to rain at the end though as that low slows down too much. 

 

Yeah, its a good run for up here as sub-528 thickness does the trick here. 

[Requiem]

Well, I definitely overreacted, guess I missed the memo that this could be a decently long period of cold. I think the 18Z ensembles REALLY got me down.

[Esquimalt]

Well, I definitely overreacted, guess I missed the memo that this could be a decently long period of cold. I think the 18Z ensembles REALLY got me down.

Understandable.  The 00Z is looking much better already 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

GFS looks about the same so far. Maybe SLIGHTLY better. 

[TT-SEA]

00z appears to have shifted a bit east again. Should be a less crappy run.

 

00Z GFS is not too much different than the 18Z run on Sunday night...

 

 

 

 

Here was the 18Z run at that time:

 

[Meatyorologist]

Yesterday I wrote a little write-up on the snow event, and I was recommended to post it here. Apparently it belongs here, which makes sense. It's just a brief analysis, so don't expect anything super in-depth. Critique if you'd like.

 

Link

[El_Nina]

Amazing the difference though east of our cascades when talking cold. I can work outside over there with a hoodie and jeans at ten degrees and it feels fine but over here doing the same thing at 35 degrees feels colder to me.

Maybe it's because the air just happens to he more moist on this side.

[Guest Sounder]

Well, I definitely overreacted, guess I missed the memo that this could be a decently long period of cold. I think the 18Z ensembles REALLY got me down.

 

Every single model could have suddenly shown 850s of +5C for the entire week and the reactions here would have been too much. Snow and cold are fun, but when it doesn't pan out it's really not worth getting as down as so many people on here get. It's just weather.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2.5 a notch further south than 18z

 

[MikeInEverett]

Yesterday I wrote a little write-up on the snow event, and I was recommended to post it here. Apparently it belongs here, which makes sense. It's just a brief analysis, so don't expect anything super in-depth. Critique if you'd like.

 

Link

Nice to see you on here!!

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS looks just like the 00Z NAM on Monday morning:

 

 

 

Here is the 00Z NAM:

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Guess the lack of amplification mattered after all. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Yesterday I wrote a little write-up on the snow event, and I was recommended to post it here. Apparently it belongs here, which makes sense. It's just a brief analysis, so don't expect anything super in-depth. Critique if you'd like.

 

Link

Very nice job. Welcome to the forum.

[HighlandExperience]

It will be sad if puyallupjohn was right all along

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS is basically the same as the 18Z run.   

 

Not good.  

[Esquimalt]

I was sure things would turn around tonight.  God D**n 

[Bodhijr]

[TT-SEA]

Monday afternoon... the low is chugging along down the coast just like the 18Z run.   

 

The 00Z run is actually a little west of the 18Z run and less organized at this time... so this run is not as good.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

WOW this run is HORRIBLE.

[Requiem]

WOW this run is HORRIBLE.

 

Didn't expect any better. This event is probably not gonna happen (unless the EURO sticks to its guns).

[Meatyorologist]

Nice to see you on here!!

Nice to be here.

[TT-SEA]

Monday evening... 

 

[Perturbed Member]

Complete and utter sh!t this 00z GFS.

[Deweydog]

[Deweydog]

Fred is gonna have a lot of work to do...

[Meatyorologist]

Fellas, let's be honest with ourselves. We'll be screaming like little children even if we see a single snow shower.

[TT-SEA]

WOW this run is HORRIBLE.

 

 

Its actually noticeably warmer on Monday than the 18Z run.

 

00Z run:

 

 

 

 

18Z run:

 

[Esquimalt]

GEM trending west. 

[TT-SEA]

Well... GFS is a complete non-event.

 

The ball is in the ECMWF court now.   Because the 12Z ECMWF showed a nice event for most of us.