Clinton Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 For a system just 2 days away there seems to be a lot of question marks. One model shows me with 1" and another model puts out over 6". Local mets talk about how complex this system is. Hopefully after the 0Z runs tonight there will be a more solid consensus.The energy will be onshore tomorrow morning so it might be 24 more hours Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 The energy will be onshore tomorrow morning so it might be 24 more hours Thanks. I was thinking it was tonight so more waiting. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 8+ for me on the NAM. Lock it! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 Icon looks brutal for Missouri 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 Icon looks brutal for MissouriBring it on! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 Well, the models are still suggesting there could be a pretty nice band of snow somewhere in Iowa. Each model streaks that initial band out across Iowa a bit differently, some north of CR, some over CR. 3-6" is still possible. Heck, the new ICON spits out 0.75" in Waterloo... likely overdone, but. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 Something to point out so far in today's 12z runs from both the NAM's and ICON is the placement and strength of the Fronto Banding which lines up with the 06z Euro earlier today. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 12z ICON total precip and snow.... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just from gauging at this distance, the look of the fronto banding looks nasty. Wherever that lines up will certainly put down some great rates. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 LOL. Some of the snow maps being spit out by the models are amusingly patchy. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 12z GFS looks pretty similar to the 06z run so far, maybe slightly further south. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 Pretty similar to the last run. Maybe a little stronger in E Iowa / N Missouri Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 12z GFS a lot better on the north end than the 00z run from last night...not good for NE peeps...Lehs showing up clearly across E WI into NE IL. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 12z GFS...close up using kuchera method... http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2019011612/078/snku_acc.us_mw.png 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 A couple of these models are quite far north with that initial wave. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 I fly back home Thursday night. Here's hoping I come back to a moderate nowfall. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 Woah, that's a big uptick from the SREF's... http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/sref/09/sref_namer_087_snow_total_sprd.gif 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 Improvements from the NAM & GFS this morning, that's good to see. I think that initial band will hit northern Iowa hardest though, so I think in Iowa that will be where we see the heaviest totals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 Woah, that's a big uptick from the SREF's... http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/sref/09/sref_namer_087_snow_total_sprd.gifI think this should have everyones attention. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 Northern stream looks more intense with today's 12z runs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 12z FV3 is a bit of an improvement as well. The moat has filled in some. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 12z Canadian... farther south with the northern wave than other models. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 I'm right in the bull's eye with that weenie band. But it's so far out, I feel like this is all just going to be taken away from me. Models are a cruel mistress. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 12z CMC matches exactly with what I have been thinking. This is the one I am looking for. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 Not a great morning of runs for Nebraskans. Hope the next 24 hours change things a little for us. My guess is a 1-3", hope I'm wrong and we could get a 3-6". 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 Not a great morning of runs for Nebraskans. Hope the next 24 hours change things a little for us. My guess is a 1-3", hope I'm wrong and we could get a 3-6".Yeah I'm about to bail on this storm :/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 How wHeird. Models coming into agreement. It's bound to collapse. http://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gdps/2019011612/090/snku_acc.us_mw.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 For Iowa City; models this morning show: NAM - 6.1"GFS - 5.6"CMC - 5.6" 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 CMC with Kucherahttp://maps3.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gdps/2019011612/108/snku_acc.us_mw.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 My hope for this storm is starting to wane (for KC). But I will say that two days before the November blizzard in KC, most of the models had Des Moines getting clobbered while KC got rain. So one never knows. NO. KC is in a good spot, better spot than I am on these maps. This storm should really organize over Oklahoma and have good structure as it moves across northern Arkansas. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 New GFS Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 12z UK 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 12z UK us_model-en-087-0_modgbr_2019011612_96_5660_220.pngI think a forecast of 3-6” seems pretty plausible at this time. Models seem to be in decent agreement with that. Of course, that probably means we’re going to be thrown a curveball soon lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 Yeah I'm about to bail on this storm :/I'm with you. The one next week actually looks a little more promising. This one might just get us a little snow cover unless the fluffy snow just blows around. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 Multiple models are spitting out 0.60+" qpf in that band streaking through northern Iowa. With good ratios, that's a darn good storm. We just need that to edge south a bit. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 I'm with you. The one next week actually looks a little more promising. This one might just get us a little snow cover unless the fluffy snow just blows around.I'll wait for the 00z runs for the data but probably going to bail. Looks good for others in this forum which is cool. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 12z GEFS total qpf... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 I'll wait for the 00z runs for the data but probably going to bail. Looks good for others in this forum which is cool.Good idea. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 16, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 SREF's looking pretty good at this range... http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/sref/03/sref_namer_087_snow_total_sprd.gif Will comment again - massive area of snow from 1 system 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 16, 2019 Report Share Posted January 16, 2019 Still liking the LES signals for this weekend as who/where this band sets up will be in for a real surprise snowfall. Looking at a long duration heavy snow setup with several inches of snow very likely. Going out on a limb on this and will say that by the time it's all said and done that there will be areas around LM that see over 12" of snow. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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