gosaints Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 Could go for a last minute jog north... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 Today is when models will have a better understanding in how this storm will evolve, especially later this afternoon. Lets see if the storm will phase or not. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 Could go for a last minute jog north... I could as well, but this isn't the storm for mid-michigan. Beginning of December to now January 17th! with 0 snow cover. Is that a record WESTMIJIM??? Unbelievable for here.  1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 On my phone for the entire day, but wow, NAM goes bonkers for Chitown! It even develops a meso low on Sun. Crazy run. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 12Z NAM with Kuchera.http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2019011712/078/snku_acc.us_mw.png 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 17, 2019 Author Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 Interesting development per the 12z NAM as it tracks across the S MW. Rather than shearing out it looks like it’s intensifying thru Hr48. Let’s see if the others show better phasing like the NAM is starting to show. Gets down to a 997mb storm in W KY at Hr54. Goes slowly into KY gets down to 996mb but gains like zero LAT? Seems h*ll-bent on being an IN/OH storm and missing me with the good stuff (defo band) Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)  Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"  2021-22 = 35.6"    Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"  2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 12Z NAM with Kuchera.http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2019011712/078/snku_acc.us_mw.pngMy God. This thing isnt letting up at all. This run gives me a foot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 Goes slowly into KY gets down to 996mb but gains like zero LAT? Seems h*ll-bent on being an IN/OH storm and missing me with the good stuff (defo band)Both NAM’e trending favorably for our region. Looking good buddy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 12Z NAM with Kuchera.http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2019011712/078/snku_acc.us_mw.pngI'm still not backing off the idea of local areas around LM see 12"+ from this system. One of the better setups we have seen on the western shores for some time now and it could rival those. Nam has been showing 24hrs of pure LES for a couple runs now and you have to add to this lake enhancement which will add to this equation. Really getting jacked for this event 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 Do you guys think those Kuchera maps are possible? DMX was saying at least 20:1 ratios. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 I'm still not backing off the idea of local areas around LM see 12"+ from this system. One of the better setups we have seen on the western shores for some time now and it could rival those. Nam has been showing 24hrs of pure LES for a couple runs now and you have to add to this lake enhancement which will add to this equation. Really getting jacked for this eventLock and load! Now we just need it to verify. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 Do you guys think those Kuchera maps are possible? DMX was saying at least 20:1 ratios.Probably slightly over done. It takes perfections to fluff that much for the duration of the event. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 Do you guys think those Kuchera maps are possible? DMX was saying at least 20:1 ratios.Those ratios are hard to come by but not out of the question. A good middle road I think would be 15:1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 Lock and load! Now we just need it to verify.Yea, nothing is guaranteed but the current runs are favorable and heading in the right direction. If it continues then we should be golden. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westMJim Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 I could as well, but this isn't the storm for mid-michigan. Beginning of December to now January 17th! with 0 snow cover. Is that a record WESTMIJIM??? Unbelievable for here.  Yes, from December 1st to today the total snow fall here at Grand Rapids is just 4.4" and there has just been 1.2" this January so far. The most snow on the ground this month at Grand Rapids has been just a trace. The most on the ground in the last 48 days has only been 1" and that has only been on 5 days. This is the least amount of snow here in recorded history from Dec 1 to January 17 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 This is why you can't lock in any nam run. It's just too inconsistent. The 12z is a big step back for central Iowa. While central to sw Iowa goes from wet pocket to dry pocket, far southeast Iowa into northern Illinois goes from dry to wet. It's impossible to buy it when it fluctuates so wildy. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2"   '21-22: 27.1"   '20-21: 52.5"   '19-20: 36.2"    '18-19: 50.2"    '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 I like how the NAM keeps getting wetter but offices dont seem to buy it. Be funny if that model won out.It won out last weekend lol. Any office would be stupid to 100% discount it. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 Lock and load! Now we just need it to verify.Congrats this looks huge for you, and LES on top of it! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 This is why you can't lock in any nam run. It's just too inconsistent. The 12z is a big step back for central Iowa.And Omaha. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 6z nam was a big fluke run thats all i can say. The amounts were ungodly but came back to there senses. Oh well, it was a fun 5 minutes of wishful thinking! Haha Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"Â For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :Â https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 Yeah that LES signature keeps showing up. Chi town gonna get slammed! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 It won out last weekend lol. Any office would be stupid to 100% discount it.Yeah the nam has done very well here this year. So not sure what to think yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erburns18 Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 I like that I'm on the Iowa side of the river . The system is running from Craig Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 Fun fact....I know the guy real well who made the kuchera ratio. His name is Evan, lives here in Omaha and works for the Air Force Weather Agency at Offutt AFB. Nice guy 1 Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"Â For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :Â https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 Initial impression of the ICON is not good at all.... just keeps shooting the system through more quickly, now has the initial fgen band way up in far northern Iowa. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2"Â Â Â '21-22: 27.1"Â Â Â '20-21: 52.5"Â Â Â '19-20: 36.2"Â Â Â Â '18-19: 50.2"Â Â Â Â '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 RGEM is again gonna be the northern end of the envelope. Chi-town does well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
badgerwx Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 Really praying for a big dump here in far SW Wisconsin. Come on! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 Really praying for a big dump here in far SW Wisconsin. Come on!You're looking good Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 Yes, from December 1st to today the total snow fall here at Grand Rapids is just 4.4" and there has just been 1.2" this January so far. The most snow on the ground this month at Grand Rapids has been just a trace. The most on the ground in the last 48 days has only been 1" and that has only been on 5 days. This is the least amount of snow here in recorded history from Dec 1 to January 17Thanks, 2012 and 2016/17? seemed bad, but not this bad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 RGEM is again gonna be the northern end of the envelope. Chi-town does wellWagons North? Bump North on gfs again Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 Wagons North? Bump North on gfs againThe fronto band is generally the last thing that models latch onto. We shall see. Would love to be in northern iowa Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 GFS looking strong for SD, southern MN, and northern IA Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 So far this morning, every model has been a step back for Cedar Rapids. We may have to settle for 0.25-0.35" qpf. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2"   '21-22: 27.1"   '20-21: 52.5"   '19-20: 36.2"    '18-19: 50.2"    '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 Wagons North?Bump North on gfs againSame with the GEM. Stronger and north. Gosaints and you might need shovels after all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 12z FV3 is terrible.... worst run so far, huge dry moat across Iowa, Â Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2"Â Â Â '21-22: 27.1"Â Â Â '20-21: 52.5"Â Â Â '19-20: 36.2"Â Â Â Â '18-19: 50.2"Â Â Â Â '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2019011712/060/snku_acc.us_mw.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
badgerwx Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 DVN issues WSW 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 TC getting in on it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 I’m not getting too excited until I see what the king says Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormy Posted January 17, 2019 Report Share Posted January 17, 2019 This would match up with the Dec 1st storm that created a blzzard across the mid section. Northern parts of Nebraska and parts of South Dakota were in a blizzard warning; my area was in a winter storm warning. I ended up with 5" of snow from that system. As far as using the LRC, you can only use it to get an idea when storm systems will be around; the cycle and pattern repeats but its the same but different. The next time around each cycle brings different seasonal differences compared to the previous cycle in terms of the storm systems. Thanks for your & anyone else’s input! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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