Iowawx Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 Closer viewDo you have that map with 10:1 ratios? This seems like it might be low ratio event. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 Great trends for Eastern Nebraska today, I have to say you have to think the King might just be on to something... we are due for a decent snow storm here.not really a trend, it's just 1 model run. GFS/nam are not good for Eastern Nebraska Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 I’m calling for 12-18 for omaha 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 Do you have that map with 10:1 ratios? This seems like it might be low ratio event. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 not really a trend, it's just 1 model run. GFS/nam are not good for Eastern Nebraska yeah but I’d rather have the king on my side! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 I’m going outside to pull that south about 25 miles or so 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 I'm doubting Euro. I feel like the storm cuts way too hard. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 First Fri/Sat storm a bust then the anticipated LES a bust now looking at rain for Tuesday.... Ultimate trifecta LOL!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 Wow that Euro run is crazy. But the nam really doesn't agree with this. Hmmm hard to say what plays out. Nam has my vote because of how spot on it has been, but I would love the euro to win this time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 I'm doubting Euro. I feel like the storm cuts way too hard.I agree. This is a weak surface low, even though there isn’t really any high pressure in Canada, I can’t forsee it cutting like that. EDIT: especially because the wave is shearing out, wayyy positively tilted and really not terribly defined. This isn’t a massive ejecting neg tilted longwave trough. This inevitably ends up flatter at the very least. Probably with an adjustment colder/south as well. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 Be Leary of that 10:1 Euro map. I did the raw #s here near and NW of DSM and in the beginning looks like 6:1 or so than 10:1 at end. I would conservatively do 75% of that map, at least here. Cant do others now as I have to drive. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 I wonder if watches will be hoisted later todayEven if DMX agrees with higher amounts compared to previous thoughts I think they wait another 12 hours. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH4NU Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 Obviously not trying to read into this too much, but for us here particularly in E. Nebraska, it was the EURO that identified the more eastern/drier solution with the last system. The GFS, FV3, and NAM packages all followed suit respectively, but not until 24 hours from onset. Food for thought! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 Prolly 4-6" in the heaviest band. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 Nice baro zone Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 Idk what the euro is on, but I want some. What a dumb outrageous solution (well unless it's right). Hard to trust any model if you can't trust the euro. Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 Nam further north a touch stronger at hr.42 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 Idk what the euro is on, but I want some. What a dumb outrageous solution (well unless it's right). Hard to trust any model if you can't trust the euro.what is outrageous? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 Nam further north a touch stronger at hr.42Still south and much colder than the GFS and CMC. Only a touch further south than the Euro. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 NAM is also dry. Very Dry. Only has 1 narrow band of decent amounts out in Nebraska and a 1-3" event everywhere else. I'd still take that in a heartbeat over rain. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 what is outrageous?I think the Euro cuts too hard for one. Whether or not this is what he meant is impossible to say. RCNYILWX largely agrees with my thoughts on this system. I actually think the NAM and the Ukie have the right idea with a shearing out, cold turd. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 Still south and much colder than the GFS and CMC. Only a touch further south than the Euro.Yeah definitely a change up from the 12z though. And to your other post the dry air really choking the snow amounts. Better track but that dry really sucks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH4NU Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 So 18z NAM hovers along SW Kansas border than shoots north/northeast towards Nebraska... Hits the brakes...Then scoots along & east staying just north of KC (similar placement to EURO). Interesting.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 18z NAM for those that are interested. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 I’ll take that over rain for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 18z NAM for those that are interested. That's some bad news for southern Wisconsin. That should be some rain. I feel like how these last few winters have been for everyone around me, that how this next storm turns out is a test if things have really changed here. Rain, it'll be just like the last few years, one or two good storms then rain and BS. If it ends up as snow, I'm really going to believe things have changed. I just got back from the snowmobile trails. I think their standards of when they are going to open up the trails or keep them closed has dropped significantly. Some fields were great, and some had no snow at all. Years ago they would have kept everyone off to try and build a base. If this event brings decent rain down here, the trails are done. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 18z NAM for those that are interested.I love that run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 I’ll take the nam and add another inch or two to the snow pack Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 We shall see. Decent sampling tonight. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 That's some bad news for southern Wisconsin. That should be some rain. I feel like how these last few winters have been for everyone around me, that how this next storm turns out is a test if things have really changed here. Rain, it'll be just like the last few years, one or two good storms then rain and BS. If it ends up as snow, I'm really going to believe things have changed. I just got back from the snowmobile trails. I think their standards of when they are going to open up the trails or keep them closed has dropped significantly. Some fields were great, and some had no snow at all. Years ago they would have kept everyone off to try and build a base. If this event brings decent rain down here, the trails are done.I don’t believe it has much rain, if any, in southern Wisconsin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 As much as I hate it, I think the track that favors US-20 straight across is the one that will come to fruition. I just don't see this one digging far enough down to bring any appreciable accumulations for here. Way too weak for that. NAM is wanting to make this an ice event here and atm I 100% believe that. 3 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 That's some bad news for southern Wisconsin. That should be some rain. I feel like how these last few winters have been for everyone around me, that how this next storm turns out is a test if things have really changed here. Rain, it'll be just like the last few years, one or two good storms then rain and BS. If it ends up as snow, I'm really going to believe things have changed. I just got back from the snowmobile trails. I think their standards of when they are going to open up the trails or keep them closed has dropped significantly. Some fields were great, and some had no snow at all. Years ago they would have kept everyone off to try and build a base. If this event brings decent rain down here, the trails are done.Looks like the rain/mixed stays south of the border in IL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 Looks like the rain/mixed stays south of the border in IL.drizzle signal Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gimmesnow Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 I don’t believe it has much rain, if any, in southern Wisconsin. I was looking at how GFS has the cut off for rain/snow on the state boarder with some of the rain creeping north. NAM has that breakpoint way further south. Looks like the GFS is out there compared to everything else. Didn't see the NAM, tropicaltidbits doesn't have it but I found it on pivotal. NAM looks good for me but I don't understand how the 24 hour QPF map disagrees so much with snow amounts yet the other map that snows precip rates and types seems to line up with the QPF. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 3km NAM. Way different than the globals. Sharp cutoff on the southern edge. Not sure I buy it, but we’re within NAM range (if you can call it that). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 Guess is many AFDs go with WPC day 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
badgerwx Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 ARX holding off on issuing anything yet. Still think a broad area of 4-6" in NE IA, SW WI, and SE MN. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 No shift south on the GFS. Low cuts right through Eastern Iowa. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 GFS has moved a bit further north four straight runs. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted January 20, 2019 Report Share Posted January 20, 2019 GFS has moved a bit further north four straight runs.Seems like it’s the Euro/NAM/UK vs GFS/CMC 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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