Jan 27th-29th Strong Hybrid Clipper

[Tom]

00z EPS holding steady and showing a healthy swath of potential heavy snows across the MW/Lower GL's...ratios will likely be at least 15:1 or better with this event so you can fluff up these qpf numbers.

 

06z GEFS...

 

[westMJim]

00z EPS holding steady and showing a healthy swath of potential heavy snows across the MW/Lower GL's...ratios will likely be at least 15:1 or better with this event so you can fluff up these qpf numbers.

 

06z GEFS...

 

One thing you have to keep an eye on this that with cold temperatures can come very small flake size 

[Tom]

06z GEFS...

[East Dubzz]

Gfs way north again

Though the 06z run was further south than its 00z run.

[Minny_Weather]

Insanely cold temps for parts of Iowa next week on the Euro, -40 in spots. Meanwhile a toasty -8 in Lincoln.

Part of me says **** that my heating bill is already high enough, the other part says this sucks why can't the trough be right over us I wanna experience -40.

[shakjen]

I will take this one.

 

[badgerwx]

YES PLEASE ^^^

[Tony]

I will take this one.

 

Screenshot_1.thumb.jpg.d5e0c68949c47d9860d46ff7f9de5a5f.jpg

Which model is this from?

[East Dubzz]

Insanely cold temps for parts of Iowa next week on the Euro, -40 in spots. Meanwhile a toasty -8 in Lincoln.

GFS cold as well. Has wind chills below -30 in DBQ between HR 138 - 174

[East Dubzz]

Which model is this from?

Canadian.

[Tony]

I guess the good thing at this point is that is that the models are still seeing this hybrid dropping a good amount of snow. Gem has the look of what the EURO had a couple runs ago. Fun times ahead. 

[Niko]

NOAA:

 

Strong upper wave/trough ejecting out of Western Canada on Sunday
still looks to be deepening and swinging through the region late
Monday-Tuesday time frame. The 12z Euro was the most aggressive
deepening the low, as the extreme PV anomaly/height falls dropping
south from Central Canada catches up just in time, with the
combined/merged 6 HR height fall center tracking into the Eastern
Great Lakes. This would be the worst case scenario, as 850-700 MB
specific humidity of 3+ g/kg would surge through southeast Michigan,
and with the excellent thermal profiles in place, one can easily see
a snowfall accumulation of 6+ inches possible. Still a lot of moving
parts/players to deal with (illustrated in the GFS ensemble
members), and timing discrepancies can mess up the possible phasing.

[East Dubzz]

Not that it matters much at this range, but the NAM does appear to have a further south solution.

[Money]

Not that it matters much at this range, but the NAM does appear to have a further south solution.

Nam at HR 84 zzzz

[East Dubzz]

Nam at HR 84 zzzz

Haha that’s why I made sure to add the first part in my post. Just moreso making note that it’s starting to come in range for the NAM.

[Snowshoe]

Could be a great set up for LES again.

 

 

 

Things become more interesting on Sunday night as low level winds
turn northeast after midnight along the Lake Michigan shoreline
then east on Monday. Lake to 850mb temperature differences of
15C to 25C noted on the models during this period which will
result in lake effect showers moving onshore later Sunday night
along the coast. Meanwhile, main system will move in from the
west. The system is expected to bring several inches of snow
to central and east-central Wisconsin. For locations near the
lake, the combination of an easterly flow off the lake for 12 to
18 hours combined with the system snow could bring a substantial
snow, possibly over a foot if lake bands set up over the same spot
for a period of time. The lake effect snow showers are expected to
linger into Monday night until winds back to the north and then
northwest. It will be interesting to see how this scenario plays
out.

[East Dubzz]

Looks like the GFS is slippin’ in further south.

 

Edit: Yup, definitely further south.

[bud2380]

Big shift south on the GFS. Wow.  

[East Dubzz]

Significant shift south from the 00z run. And juiced up.

[Tom]

That’s a dream run for Chitown...woah!

[gosaints]

Gonna be a long 90 hours living and dying with each suite..

[james1976]

I keep telling myself DON'T GET SUCKED IN

[Tom]

Gonna be a long 90 hours living and dying with each suite..

Keeps you on your edge...keeps the fun in tracking this hybrid. Haven’t seen one like this in years.

[bud2380]

[East Dubzz]

Gonna be a long 90 hours living and dying with each suite..

Well it’s gonna be less than that, because we’ll get an idea of how it’s looking track wise when it’s up in Canada

[GDR]

[East Dubzz]

Capture.PNG

No need for any more model runs. Let’s just lock that one in and consider it done.

[Tom]

Unlike most clippers, this one will have a fairly wide snow shield with it keeping many of us in the game for decent accumulations.

[East Dubzz]

12z CMC pretty similar to its 00z run. Might be a touch north as far as track, but the heavier precip shield is slightly further south.

[Tony]

Capture.PNG

I expect higher totals if everything lines up perfectly. Good 12z model run and especially if Euro follows. 

[East Dubzz]

I expect higher totals if everything lines up perfectly. Good 12z model run and especially if Euro follows.

You expect higher totals than what the GFS is showing? Or do you just mean you expect good snowfall if it all lines up perfectly?

[indianajohn]

with the high snow ratios gonna be fun using a leaf blower to clear 15 inches of snow!! LOL

[Tom]

12z GGEM nearly identical to GFS...would like to see Ukie/Euro jump onboard with the juice potential. I’m on the road today, appreciate in advance for posting maps.

[St Paul Storm]

That high in Ontario north of the GL will determine the path of the low. 12z runs have that high pressure further west than prior runs.

[Tony]

You expect higher totals than what the GFS is showing? Or do you just mean you expect good snowfall if it all lines up perfectly?

Actually higher totals especially with the fluff factor. Also throw in lake enhancement for an extended period of time  near LM areas and those totals could really blossom.

[Tom]

That high in Ontario north of the GL will determine the path of the low. 12z runs have that high pressure further west than prior runs.

I’ve been watching that on the EPS and it’s been maintaining that HP in that spot over the past several runs. To see the GFS and GGEM agree, seems like the Euro is leading the way with this one.

[Tom]

Actually higher totals especially with the fluff factor. Also throw in lake enhancement for an extended period of time near LM areas and those totals could really blossom.

An added bonus, it looks like this will be primarily a daytime event. The pivot is basically picture perfect for N IL.

[St Paul Storm]

I’ve been watching that on the EPS and it’s been maintaining that HP in that spot over the past several runs. To see the GFS and GGEM agree, seems like the Euro is leading the way with this one.

Yep, agree. I know the Euro isn’t known for tracking clippers as well as systems out of the SW, but there’s no reason to doubt that the Euro is the one to watch.

[gosaints]

Yep, agree. I know the Euro isn’t known for tracking clippers as well as systems out of the SW, but there’s no reason to doubt that the Euro is the one to watch.

No doubt.  If I were you I would not throw in the towel.  At this range you are definitely still in the picture..

[St Paul Storm]

No doubt.  If I were you I would not throw in the towel.  At this range you are definitely still in the picture..

Meh. If it happens it happens, if not I move on. It’ll snow, just a matter of how much.