February 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest - Part 1

[Requiem]

NAM run definitely gives more of the goods to northern areas and shunts the W. Valley (and PDX to some extent).

 

EDIT: NVM, deformation band slides north giving PDX more snow afterwards. Not bad at all. I'd still like to see some more coverage for the valley but then again this is the tip of the iceberg for a pretty potential-filled period coming up.

[GHweatherChris]

[Frontal Snowsquall]

This thing is gonna blow up.

 

Post Super Bowl "nightmare", going to bring the region to its knees.

Yeah, I have a feeling this thing is going to trend colder and snowier as we get closer to the event. The 18z EURO trended better and shows about 5"-6" for my location.

[Jesse]

925mb (8).gif

Should start to see outflow winds hitting BLI by later tonight.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty exciting to see high winds from Fraser outflow forecast for BLI!

[GHweatherChris]

Should start to see outflow winds hitting BLI by later tonight.

Weird seeing the 0 line only 50 miles or so offshore.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3K NAM looks really good for anyone east of I-5 and West Metro!

 

[Esquimalt]

3K NAM looks really good for anyone east of I-5 and West Metro!

 

Do you have the zoomed in Washington map?

[FroYoBro]

3K NAM looks really good for anyone east of I-5 and West Metro!

 

 

 

Yep, I was about to say that the lower res NAM doesn't look great, but the 3K has a nice heavy band going right through the metro area. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Basically an area of precip sets up right over the valley.

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

3K NAM looks really good for anyone east of I-5 and West Metro!

 

I can't believe we're less than 48 hours away now!

[TT-SEA]

3K NAM looks really good for anyone east of I-5 and West Metro!

 

I get nothing. That won't happen.

[MossMan]

Been a hell of a day...my young agility border collie steps on something in the yard, doesn’t put any weight on rear leg and entire foot is spasming...look at foot and see small pin hole cut...soak foot in epson salt...hope nothing is in the pin hole cut...dog not happy...dog starts putting weight on leg again...leave for shopping...get back from shopping at Haggen and Lowe’s (with my wife, mom , and my 2 kids so it took forever) and start working on getting my new weather station sensor installed...wife informes me that we have no water pressure. Crap. Start trouble shooting...everything looks good besides the control box by the well head...run back to Lowe’s...pick up a new one...race back as the sun is getting quite low...install new box...turn breakers back on...stare at kitchen faucet for about 10 seconds and in my head saying “you better work you mother...” turn on faucet and water comes out...race back outside and finish install of weather station sensor as the sun goes down...Done!! Done with this day!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

NAM is still pretty weak with precip overall...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I get nothing. That won't happen.

 

This map shows about 6" here. So I am going to say it will verify! For NW Oregon it looks a lot like the 18z EURO. Just doesn't expand the precip north. I think with this outflow there will be some surprises and maybe a C-Zone.

[Guest hawkstwelve]

3km NAM picking up on the outflow winds converging with the southerly flow and paints a band from the Strait across to Snohomish and Skagit counties falling mainly during tomorrow afternoon.

 

The N/S band signature shown on most other models is nowhere to be found. Instead, a band works up from the south to around Pierce county overnight tomorrow. Drying occurring in the EPSL probably due to offshore flow but it might be overestimating that.

 

All that being said, a definitive improvement for WA as a whole compared to the 18z.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Highs in the upper 30s Monday on the NAM for the Willamette Valley. The temp when the heavy snow is falling is 33 PDX, 33 SLE, 33 EUG. So it would be sloppy accumulations at the valley floor.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

ICON running now.

[Meatyorologist]

I've written up another blog regarding tomorrow's snow event. Not making a forecast untill tomorrow.

 

https://meatyorologist.blogspot.com/2019/02/detailed-thoughts-on-upcoming-snow-event.html

[SilverFallsAndrew]

ICON is a notch east at hour 18.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Too bad this has so much over water trajectory, that is some real cold up in SW Canada.

[bainbridgekid]

Too bad this has so much over water trajectory, that is some real cold up in SW Canada.

I'll happily give up some cold for the snow that over water trajectory brings.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'll happily give up some cold for the snow that over water trajectory brings.

 

I want both!

[FroYoBro]

ICON looks nice for the sound sound. Bad for the Portland area.

[MossMan]

I am quite excited about the prospects of a hard north wind blowing down through the region...been a long time since that has happened!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

ICON looks nice for the sound sound. Bad for the Portland area.

 

There will be some surprises!

[bainbridgekid]

00z ICON doesn't get going for Seattle till around 4 AM Monday, but then holds the deformation there through about 1 PM.

 

[Jesse]

I want both!

It’s either one or the other. Look at all that cold we had in January 1950, and what did we have to show for it? Completely snowless month.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

I've written up another blog regarding tomorrow's snow event. Not making a forecast untill tomorrow.

 

https://meatyorologist.blogspot.com/2019/02/detailed-thoughts-on-upcoming-snow-event.html

Though I dont live on Western Washington anymore, it was a great read, and a MUST read for any of you who do. I think you should all bookmark his blog.

[Requiem]

ICON looks nice for the sound sound. Bad for the Portland area.

 

Really bad for the Portland area and south. Hope things don't trend that way. Then again it's just the ICON and TBH it hasn't been doing that well.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

ICON is a tad cooler through hour 66.

[HighlandExperience]

Icon looks good for Puget Sound

 

[Blizzard777]

I am quite excited about the prospects of a hard north wind blowing down through the region...been a long time since that has happened!

 

Trees will be angry as their used to a south wind. Power outage time

 

Good job on multitasking and still getting the weather machine up. I’m sure it will be worth the effort!

[Requiem]

Icon looks good for Puget Sound

 

 

Most models at this point are looking quite good for Puget Sound, shame there isn't an East Wind for PDX like the North Wind for the region.

[Jesse]

Really bad for the Portland area and south. Hope things don't trend that way. Then again it's just the ICON and TBH it hasn't been doing that well.

From what I can tell it’s just out through Monday morning? Later Monday and overnight has been consistently advertised as our best shot.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Another good rgem run as well.

[GHweatherChris]

All of the 0z models look horrible for here so far, outliers for sure!!

[bainbridgekid]

Another good rgem run as well.

Purdy. 

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

The 3km nam is an outlier.