February 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest - Part 1

[Jesse]

Biggest flakes of the day here now. Appears to be sticking to the roof a bit too. Nice.

[Perturbed Member]

Watching this deformation band action on radar must be really stressful for Portland snow lovers west of I-205.

 

Yeah it is pretty frustrating, me being on the far western edge of the metro is about the worst place. On to the next event, hopefully it doesn't screw us this hard. 

[Deweydog]

C’mon you deformed b*tch!!!

[Esquimalt]

Overrunning event followed by reload on FV3, hour 318

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Yeah it is pretty frustrating, me being on the far western edge of the metro is about the worst place. On to the next event, hopefully it doesn't screw us this hard. 

 

It is absolutely not the worst place. 

[Perturbed Member]

It is absolutely not the worst place. 

 

 

For this event it was pretty much near the worst. I was right in the dry slot all of yesterday and now just west of the dband. I did decently with temps, but that isn't too useful with .01 in of precip. 

 

In general though this spot is decent, this event was just awful luck. 

[Alex_Snakes]

Seattle AFD regarding the weekend system:

 

"The hounds of winter still have Western Washington in their sights."

[wxmet]

FV3-GFS 18z: Each reload is a chance at accumulating snow with some nice pressure gradients developing.

[Requiem]

Seattle AFD regarding the weekend system:

 

"The hounds of winter still have Western Washington in their sights."

 

Why can't Portland AFD be that interesting?

[Jesse]

C’mon you deformed b*tch!!!

Almost a solid dusting here now on everything but the pavement. Nice big flakes.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Hoping for more good pictures later.

[Requiem]

What the absolute **** is the FV3? Excuse my (censored) language, but I have never seen such intense easterly gradients before.

[Deweydog]

Almost a solid dusting here now on everything but the pavement. Nice big flakes.

It’s pretty!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Absolutely jaw dropping. The potential of the next 2 weeks is incredible.

Yeah the trough just seems to regurgitate over the PNW through day 15. Never seen anything like this before.

[Tyler Mode]

Seattle AFD regarding the weekend system:

 

"The hounds of winter still have Western Washington in their sights."

Then there's the Portland AFD: 

 

Will continue to monitor the forecast over

the coming days, but in general expect somewhat seasonable weather

through early next week.

 

Apparently highs near 40 and chance of snow are seasonal now in February.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Jesse]

For this event it was pretty much near the worst. I was right in the dry slot all of yesterday and now just west of the dband. I did decently with temps, but that isn't too useful with .01 in of precip.

 

In general though this spot is decent, this event was just awful luck.

Hope you can get in on the action.

[TT-SEA]

You think the rest of those showers will make it over the Cascades and rotate in?

 

 

Nope... really falling apart now.  

[jcmcgaffey]

Temps are starting the downward trend. How low can you go!

[Requiem]

Temps are dropping in PDX. Up here it is 30 with a dewpoint of 28, and precip has stopped for now. But I think Mark Nelsen has the best handle on this event, I'm not listening to the NWS for this one anymore.

[Timmy]

Fv3 shows a cool foot this weekend

[TigerWoodsLibido]

39 and calm.  Mostly clear. Should hopefully drop below freezing at some point tonight.

[seattleweatherguy]

National Weather Service Seattle WA

230 PM PST Mon Feb 4 2019

 

.SYNOPSIS...Cold air will continue to spill out of British Columbia

tonight. Lingering snow showers will come to end this evening with

dry and cold weather Tuesday and Wednesday as weak high pressure

builds into the region. Another round of unsettled weather is

expected later Thursday into the weekend as another system drops

southward into the region.

 

&&

 

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...An upper level trough

continues to drift southward to the Oregon/California border

this afternoon. Wrap around moisture lingers over the eastern

portion of the forecast area this afternoon, but flurries are

expected to come to an end this evening with skies gradually

clearing from the north. With snow cover and clearing skies, it will

be a cold night ahead with widespread lows of 15 to 25

degrees...coldest in the north and outlying areas with substantial

snow on the ground. The Bellingham-Williams Lake gradient is edging

downward so we will see the Fraser outflow winds across the North

Interior weaken with time. It will remain gusty overnight and a wind

advisory will be in place for Western Whatcom county and the San

Juans. For the remainder of the area, it`ll be a brisk, breezy night

with wind chills in the single digits to low teens common.

 

Weak high pressure aloft west of 140W will shift eastward into the

Washington offshore waters by Wednesday. This combined with dry

northerly flow aloft will bring a couple of mostly sunny days

Tuesday and Wednesday with slowly moderating temperatures. Highs in

the mid 30s will be common on Tuesday with upper 30s to near 40 on

Wednesday. Recent model runs have slowed the timing with the arrival

of

the next system somewhat. An increase in cloud cover is expected on

Thursday with high temperatures remaining below normal in the lower

to mid 40s. Models are in reasonable agreement with another system

making the trek southward over British Columbia Thursday

night...but begin to diverge in the details thereafter. 27

 

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...There is still some

disagreement in the details with regards to the evolution of the

late week system amongst the models. However, both the Euro and GFS

have another upper level low pinching off in the vicinity of

Vancouver Island late Friday or Saturday then shifting offshore

followed by another Fraser outflow event. It looks similar in some

respects to the system of the past 24 hours, but there`s plenty of

time for the models to fall into place. The hounds of winter

still have Western Washington in their sights. 27

 

&&

 

.AVIATION...A low pressure system is drifting south and there is

cold high pressure over British Columbia, Fraser outflow will

gradually ease through the middle of the week. There will be some

flurries near the Cascades into the evening, but otherwise skies

will be clearing from the north. Mostly sunny but cold on Tuesday.

 

KSEA...Skies will be clearing from the north this evening. North

wind easing.

 

&&

 

.MARINE...Fraser outflow will ease through the middle of the week,

but we might see another round of that late in the week. For now,

gales easing in the north with breezy winds elsewhere. A freezing

spray advisory is in effect for the northern inland waters from the

San Juan Islands northward--it will cool down some more, so we may

yet see that develop, but the ferries were not reporting any icing

as of early this afternoon.

 

&&

 

.HYDROLOGY...River flooding not expected in the next 7 days.

 

 

&&

 

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WA...Wind Advisory until 4 AM PST Tuesday for San Juan County-Western

Whatcom County.

 

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM PST Tuesday for Central U.S.

Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Coastal Waters From Cape

Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From

Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters

[Requiem]

National Weather Service Seattle WA

230 PM PST Mon Feb 4 2019

 

.SYNOPSIS...Cold air will continue to spill out of British Columbia

tonight. Lingering snow showers will come to end this evening with

dry and cold weather Tuesday and Wednesday as weak high pressure

builds into the region. Another round of unsettled weather is

expected later Thursday into the weekend as another system drops

southward into the region.

 

&&

 

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...An upper level trough

continues to drift southward to the Oregon/California border

this afternoon. Wrap around moisture lingers over the eastern

portion of the forecast area this afternoon, but flurries are

expected to come to an end this evening with skies gradually

clearing from the north. With snow cover and clearing skies, it will

be a cold night ahead with widespread lows of 15 to 25

degrees...coldest in the north and outlying areas with substantial

snow on the ground. The Bellingham-Williams Lake gradient is edging

downward so we will see the Fraser outflow winds across the North

Interior weaken with time. It will remain gusty overnight and a wind

advisory will be in place for Western Whatcom county and the San

Juans. For the remainder of the area, it`ll be a brisk, breezy night

with wind chills in the single digits to low teens common.

 

Weak high pressure aloft west of 140W will shift eastward into the

Washington offshore waters by Wednesday. This combined with dry

northerly flow aloft will bring a couple of mostly sunny days

Tuesday and Wednesday with slowly moderating temperatures. Highs in

the mid 30s will be common on Tuesday with upper 30s to near 40 on

Wednesday. Recent model runs have slowed the timing with the arrival

of

the next system somewhat. An increase in cloud cover is expected on

Thursday with high temperatures remaining below normal in the lower

to mid 40s. Models are in reasonable agreement with another system

making the trek southward over British Columbia Thursday

night...but begin to diverge in the details thereafter. 27

 

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...There is still some

disagreement in the details with regards to the evolution of the

late week system amongst the models. However, both the Euro and GFS

have another upper level low pinching off in the vicinity of

Vancouver Island late Friday or Saturday then shifting offshore

followed by another Fraser outflow event. It looks similar in some

respects to the system of the past 24 hours, but there`s plenty of

time for the models to fall into place. The hounds of winter

still have Western Washington in their sights. 27

 

&&

 

.AVIATION...A low pressure system is drifting south and there is

cold high pressure over British Columbia, Fraser outflow will

gradually ease through the middle of the week. There will be some

flurries near the Cascades into the evening, but otherwise skies

will be clearing from the north. Mostly sunny but cold on Tuesday.

 

KSEA...Skies will be clearing from the north this evening. North

wind easing.

 

&&

 

.MARINE...Fraser outflow will ease through the middle of the week,

but we might see another round of that late in the week. For now,

gales easing in the north with breezy winds elsewhere. A freezing

spray advisory is in effect for the northern inland waters from the

San Juan Islands northward--it will cool down some more, so we may

yet see that develop, but the ferries were not reporting any icing

as of early this afternoon.

 

&&

 

.HYDROLOGY...River flooding not expected in the next 7 days.

 

 

&&

 

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WA...Wind Advisory until 4 AM PST Tuesday for San Juan County-Western

Whatcom County.

 

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM PST Tuesday for Central U.S.

Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Coastal Waters From Cape

Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From

Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters

 

The NWS Portland discussions suck compared to this.

[Deweydog]

No flooding expected in the next seven days. Good info.

[FroYoBro]

The band is dying out this way. Nothing falling from the sky. 

[bainbridgekid]

Skies are clearing here just in time for sunset and winds are calm. 

 

Should set the stage for an impressively cold night with the deep snowcover.

[Requiem]

The band is dying out this way. Nothing falling from the sky. 

 

Snow is apparently falling in Gresham and East PDX. Give it time, I'm sure it'll eventually make it's way over. Rod Hill and Mark are forecasting snow showers at 6 pm.

[HighlandExperience]

[Esquimalt]

[seattleweatherguy]

The NWS Portland discussions suck compared to this.

Usually it's seattle afd that sucks

[Blizzard777]

Seattle AFD regarding the weekend system:begins

 

"The hounds of winter still have Western Washington in their sights."

Hoping the trend continues with compounding snow like back in 2008!

See if Mother Nature can shut down garbage day like back then! The adventure begins

[Requiem]

Usually it's seattle afd that sucks

 

This time snow is practically a lock for Seattle. It's going to be VERY difficult to get good accumulating snow in PDX this weekend into next week, I think.

[TT-SEA]

This time snow is practically a lock for Seattle. It's going to be VERY difficult to get good accumulating snow in PDX this weekend into next week, I think.

 

 

The ECMWF disagrees.   Nothing is a lock.

[TT-SEA]

Sun in Everett...

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

New 7 day from KPTV.

 

[Jesse]

New 7 day from KPTV.

 

Looks like has literally no idea what to do with the weekend. Which is understandable.

[Requiem]

New 7 day from KPTV.

 

 

Seems a bit warm with late weekend temps...

[Phil]

18z absolutely buries the Puget Sound area Friday night and Saturday.

 

 

Omfg. Where’s that Ron Paul “it’s happening!!” gif when you need it?

[Requiem]

Omfg. Where’s that Ron Paul “it’s happening!!” gif when you need it?

 

Ain't happening for that finger of green /: