February 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest - Part 1

[bainbridgekid]

GFS sure has trended toward more moisture with the Friday/Saturday system. 00z shows very borderline temps and a period of rain for Seattle, but tough to overstate the potential with this much precipitation and that much cold air around.

 

12z:

18z:

00z:

[HighlandExperience]

I wish the Friday system came in on Wednesday   

[Esquimalt]

I wouldn’t expect much 33 degree rain from the upcoming pattern.

 

The WRF is going to be unbelievable eye candy if it shows as much moisture as the GFS is showing.

I feel WRF will show rain down here...just a hunch.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Crazy looking pattern at the end of the run

[MossMan]

Down to 15.9.

[Geos]

Went for a walk right as the sun was setting. Just gorgeous out there!

 

Awesome.

 

At sunset here. Down to 18° now.

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

33, clear and calm. Would be nice to be able to experience some sort of interesting weather event here but our most recent one was the huge number of 90 degree days last summer.

 

Literally, there has been nothing of interest since then. Worst/most boring stretch of weather since I moved to Oregon in 1989.

[FroYoBro]

PDX 30 and light snow. 

[MossMan]

GFS sure has trended toward more moisture with the Friday/Saturday system. 00z shows very borderline temps and a period of rain for Seattle, but tough to overstate the potential with this much precipitation and that much cold air around.

 

12z:

gfs_apcpn_nwus_22.png

18z:

gfs_apcpn_nwus_21.png

00z:

gfs_apcpn_nwus_20.png

If I remember correctly there was a system or two during the Dec 2008 period where models had a borderline temp setup but as we got close we stayed all snow. (At least up here) Perhaps we are following that script a bit?

[Andrew.]

Moving into the metro area nicely now, appears to be enhancing slightly too.

 

[Perturbed Member]

Here is the more realistic WRF map. Shows nothing for any of us in the metro area after 10 PM. 

 

[Esquimalt]

If I remember correctly there was a system or two during the Dec 2008 period where models had a borderline temp setup but as we got close we stayed all snow. (At least up here) Perhaps we are following that script a bit?

I sure hope so, as it currently stands it's an extremely close call for VI and for the puget sound.

[Requiem]

EURO is far more impressive for lowland snow IMO

 

Anyways, that band is just parked over PDX and it is snowing a good clip. Everything is turning white!

[Deweydog]

Pendleton radar looking even worse for PDX.

[Perturbed Member]

EURO is far more impressive for lowland snow IMO

 

Anyways, that band is just parked over PDX and it is snowing a good clip. Everything is turning white!

 

Hopefully the 00z Euro still gives PDX a snowstorm. Not liking what I see on the other models, especially the vomit inducing GFS. 

[Esquimalt]

Hopefully the 00z Euro still gives PDX a snowstorm. Not liking what I see on the other models, especially the vomit inducing GFS.

Can't complain about the GFS

[epiceast]

Pendleton radar looking even worse for PDX.

Linear thinking

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Arlington down to 12! Olympia 17!

[TT-SEA]

Pendleton radar looking even worse for PDX.

Juuuuuuuust a bit snowy around Sunnyside.

 

[Requiem]

Juuuuuuuust a bit snowy around Sunnyside.

 

 

Not bad.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hopefully the 00z Euro still gives PDX a snowstorm. Not liking what I see on the other models, especially the vomit inducing GFS. 

 

00z actually turned out to be pretty decent. GEM was good.

[epiceast]

But seriously, the western part of the band is getting a second life, seems like its trying to pivot around The Dalles/Hood River area...

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Spots in the PNW still above freezing:

 

Albany

Tangent

Sweet Home

Brownsville

Springfield

Creswell

 

That's it.  Let's see who the "survivor" is

[epiceast]

Spots in the PNW still above freezing:

 

Albany

Tangent

Sweet Home

Brownsville

Springfield

Creswell

 

That's it.  Let's see who the "survivor" is

Wild card submission: Asotin, WA @ 33 degrees.

[Esquimalt]

Hmm FV3 showing some weak snow moving in from the southwest on thursday evening colliding with the incoming arctic front.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Pretty much impossible to nail down timing at this point. I think the late week period has much more potential then this past weekend had, in terms of snowfall for our area.

 

I have to agree, the air will be plenty cold/dry to support snow from the start, it's hard to see it transitioning to rain with persistent offshore flow and established low level cold to the north and south. The biggest concern again is snow shadowing, but at this point it looks like anything is possible.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Juuuuuuuust a bit snowy around Sunnyside.

 

Awesome.

[epiceast]

Juuuuuuuust a bit snowy around Sunnyside.

 

I wonder if somebody in Yakima valley is going to measure a foot tonight. I can't remember which model nailed this, going to go back in the thread right now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

How much snow did The Dalles get today? It looked like they just got totally nuked!

[Esquimalt]

I have to agree, the air will be plenty cold/dry to support snow from the start, it's hard to see it transitioning to rain with persistent offshore flow and established low level cold to the north and south. The biggest concern again is snow shadowing, but at this point it looks like anything is possible.

My interpretation of the situation shown can be wrong, but I feel that the trajectory of that low on the GFS tonight is absolutely perfect for a massive dump everywhere from here to Nanaimo.

[bainbridgekid]

10 degrees in Arlington at 9 PM.

 

WOW.

[ShawniganLake]

I feel WRF will show rain down here...just a hunch.

If it shows rain it will be short lived. That is just a massive snow setup on the GFS. I’m expecting the WRF to show 20-30” ( here). Not that it means anything. Just fun to speculate.

[Front Ranger]

Here is the more realistic WRF map. Shows nothing for any of us in the metro area after 10 PM. 

 

 

That map is definitely going to bust.

[Esquimalt]

If it shows rain it will be short lived. That is just a massive snow setup on the GFS. I’m expecting the WRF to show 20-30”. Not that it means anything. Just fun to speculate.

Check out the FV3. Continuing that trend.

[Requiem]

That map is definitely going to bust.

 

Trusting the HRRR- it actually handled this quite decently. WRF was/is awful.

[epiceast]

How much snow did The Dalles get today? It looked like they just got totally nuked!

 

.4" qpf same as Yakima. so probably 6" and 8" at Yakima atm.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

So did most Vancouver Island posters get shafted to this point as well?

[Esquimalt]

So did most Vancouver Island posters get shafted to this point as well?

Absolutely got shafted. Max accumulations reported have been 2 inches in the Triangle Mountain area of Colwood (west of downtown). There apparently was more snow up in the Duncan area, but down here it was a bust.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Absolutely got shafted. Max accumulations reported have been 2 inches in the Triangle Mountain area of Colwood (west of downtown). There apparently was more snow up in the Duncan area, but down here it was a bust.

 

You will have a turn here in the next week. 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Ended up with a 29F high here in spite of having no snow cover after a low of 21F last night. This marks the first freeze of the season in this part of town and coldest my weather station has reported in the 3 years it's been running. Looks like YYJ may have broken its long running streak without a sub-freezing high, although it looks like it got close this afternoon. Interestingly many places north of here with a solid snow cover ended up getting above freezing.

 

Currently 28F and cloudy, for how cold it got the outflow winds never got particular strong here and it's dead calm now.