TigerWoodsLibido Posted February 5, 2019 Report Share Posted February 5, 2019 What happened 12-14-08? It was the only day EUG scored with the whole event. North/central valley was buried after that though. 2 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Sounder Posted February 5, 2019 Report Share Posted February 5, 2019 I think you are partially joking but I also think you are actually superstitious about this stuff. Please stop jinxing us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 5, 2019 Report Share Posted February 5, 2019 2-5-19 3:02 PM Model analysis, Snow storm thoughtsHere are some additional analysis and thoughts regarding the POTENTIAL for a Winter Storm (Poopers?) to impact WA/OR Friday evening and Saturday. It is important to point out a few things and the major differences comparing the air mass ahead of the system Friday evening/Saturday to what we recently had Saturday night into this Tuesday morning. This is based on the 12z ECMWF, GEM, GFS NCEP, WRF, and to a bit lesser extent the FV3. The ICON was thrown out because Hasselhoff doesn't know what the Columbia Gorge is. It's also based on the current air mass, snow cover Gorge/east, and the coming east winds. 1) We already have the cold air in place. We didn't with this last Snow Dusting, Skiff-o-Matic Spectacular Event. We have cold, arctic air especially at lower levels in the Columbia Basin and it won't be going anywhere.2) We have a snow covered Central/Eastern Gorge and Columbia Basin. It's not likely that will melt off ahead of the system Friday evening/Saturday. That will help the lower levels cool even further creating a 'refrigerator' effect if you will.3) East winds should develop sometimes Wednesday. We didn't have that with this past cold shot. The widespread snow cover over the Columbia Basin will aid in developing high pressure, likely stronger than is modeled currently. Additionally with clearing skies the next 2 nights over there temps will plummet into the single digits and possibly below zero. This will develop a very strong and arctic cold pool. As east winds increase Wednesday night through Thursday that low level arctic air over the Columbia basin will be sucked westward through the Gorge chilling PDX metro further. A reinforcement shot of cold air. It will also thicken up the cold layer from 4000' to the surface, but ever so slightly less than in January due to higher sun angle in February.4) As the system develops early Friday evening near Vancouver Island and drops south off the Washington coast early Saturday morning once it's about parallel with Ocean Shores/Long Beach that should begin to induce even more east winds keeping PDX very cold. It is possible immediate PDX metro is the only location that is sufficiently cold enough and areas south of Wilsonville are too warm as warmer air is pulled northward ahead of the low up the Willamette Valley. The exact track of the low is crucial for this. We want the low nearly hugging the Washington Coast as it drops south to minimize the warmer influence off the ocean and thus lessening any warm air advection. If it heads offshore further to our north than we won't see much of anything. *RIGHT NOW* no models show this, so relax. Okay.5) Another key difference. This time the cold air source is from Northwest Territories, Alberta, Saskatchewan. The arctic trough digs towards us from the northeast with no warming influence from the Pacific ocean. The fact it's coming in sharply from the northeast and not rather down the BC Coast should drive arctic air rather easily into Eastern Washington and the Columbia Basin. My thoughts: Based on all 12z runs I have growing consistency that PDX metro, Clark County in particular may see a Snow event/Storm late Friday night and Saturday. I'm currently at a 50-60% chance and leaving some wiggle room depending on how the upper level pattern is modeled the next 24-36 hours. If we didn't already have cold air in place going into this system and the snow cover in the Eastern Gorge, Columbia Basin I wouldn't be nearly as confident for snow. Any change in the upper level pattern Thursday through Friday to our north in the Northwest Territories, Alberta, and eastern British Columbia could "make or break" on whether or not we see snowfall. That will need to be watched carefully. The potential for a significant snow storm is there. Stay tuned! I do think the potential is much higher Sunday-Monday, but you are absolutely the expert. I'm excited! "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 5, 2019 Report Share Posted February 5, 2019 2-5-19 3:02 PM Model analysis, Snow storm thoughtsHere are some additional analysis and thoughts regarding the POTENTIAL for a Winter Storm (Poopers?) to impact WA/OR Friday evening and Saturday. It is important to point out a few things and the major differences comparing the air mass ahead of the system Friday evening/Saturday to what we recently had Saturday night into this Tuesday morning. This is based on the 12z ECMWF, GEM, GFS NCEP, WRF, and to a bit lesser extent the FV3. The ICON was thrown out because Hasselhoff doesn't know what the Columbia Gorge is. It's also based on the current air mass, snow cover Gorge/east, and the coming east winds. 1) We already have the cold air in place. We didn't with this last Snow Dusting, Skiff-o-Matic Spectacular Event. We have cold, arctic air especially at lower levels in the Columbia Basin and it won't be going anywhere.2) We have a snow covered Central/Eastern Gorge and Columbia Basin. It's not likely that will melt off ahead of the system Friday evening/Saturday. That will help the lower levels cool even further creating a 'refrigerator' effect if you will.3) East winds should develop sometimes Wednesday. We didn't have that with this past cold shot. The widespread snow cover over the Columbia Basin will aid in developing high pressure, likely stronger than is modeled currently. Additionally with clearing skies the next 2 nights over there temps will plummet into the single digits and possibly below zero. This will develop a very strong and arctic cold pool. As east winds increase Wednesday night through Thursday that low level arctic air over the Columbia basin will be sucked westward through the Gorge chilling PDX metro further. A reinforcement shot of cold air. It will also thicken up the cold layer from 4000' to the surface, but ever so slightly less than in January due to higher sun angle in February.4) As the system develops early Friday evening near Vancouver Island and drops south off the Washington coast early Saturday morning once it's about parallel with Ocean Shores/Long Beach that should begin to induce even more east winds keeping PDX very cold. It is possible immediate PDX metro is the only location that is sufficiently cold enough and areas south of Wilsonville are too warm as warmer air is pulled northward ahead of the low up the Willamette Valley. The exact track of the low is crucial for this. We want the low nearly hugging the Washington Coast as it drops south to minimize the warmer influence off the ocean and thus lessening any warm air advection. If it heads offshore further to our north than we won't see much of anything. *RIGHT NOW* no models show this, so relax. Okay.5) Another key difference. This time the cold air source is from Northwest Territories, Alberta, Saskatchewan. The arctic trough digs towards us from the northeast with no warming influence from the Pacific ocean. The fact it's coming in sharply from the northeast and not rather down the BC Coast should drive arctic air rather easily into Eastern Washington and the Columbia Basin. My thoughts: Based on all 12z runs I have growing consistency that PDX metro, Clark County in particular may see a Snow event/Storm late Friday night and Saturday. I'm currently at a 50-60% chance and leaving some wiggle room depending on how the upper level pattern is modeled the next 24-36 hours. If we didn't already have cold air in place going into this system and the snow cover in the Eastern Gorge, Columbia Basin I wouldn't be nearly as confident for snow. Any change in the upper level pattern Thursday through Friday to our north in the Northwest Territories, Alberta, and eastern British Columbia could "make or break" on whether or not we see snowfall. That will need to be watched carefully. The potential for a significant snow storm is there. Stay tuned!Well said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 5, 2019 Report Share Posted February 5, 2019 What happened 12-14-08?It snowed but it didn’t work out so well for Clark County. You would have done well but you were a fetus at the time and fetuses shouldn’t be out in the snow. KVUOsnowman had an epic meltdown. After a 2007-08 with so many near misses it was the perfect primer. Weather, karma and comeuppance are very closely related. 2 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DRG Posted February 5, 2019 Report Share Posted February 5, 2019 I'm supposed to take my twin 3 yr old boys to a performance in downtown Portland on Sat...wish my GF luck. Oh yeah, it's on for sure now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 5, 2019 Report Share Posted February 5, 2019 It snowed but it didn’t work out so well for Clark County. You would have done well but you were a fetus at the time and fetuses shouldn’t be out in the snow. KVUOsnowman had an epic meltdown. After a 2007-08 with so many near misses it was the perfect primer. Weather, karma and comeuppance are very closely related. I was six, I wish I could say I vaguely remember the events of that day but I don't. "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted February 5, 2019 Report Share Posted February 5, 2019 38 with light rain right now. Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alex_Snakes Posted February 5, 2019 Report Share Posted February 5, 2019 noon Saturday to 6 am Sunday snow for Seattle... crazy run. Druncle knows how to party Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 5, 2019 Report Share Posted February 5, 2019 Remember back when our climate was f*cked? My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 5, 2019 Report Share Posted February 5, 2019 Remember back when our climate was f*cked? I remember last month all too well. "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 5, 2019 Report Share Posted February 5, 2019 Remember back when our climate was f*cked?Even if we get a big event it still won’t change the bigger picture of gradual warming. You know this as well as I. Promising looking model runs also don’t erase the unprecedented slew of warm records over the last 4-5 years, gradually drying and lengthening warm seasons, diminishing Cascade snow pack, shrinking alpine glaciers, etc etc. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 5, 2019 Report Share Posted February 5, 2019 From the Portland NWS. I like how they removed "seasonal weather" from the discussion. ONG TERM...Friday afternoon through Tuesday...A moderate lowpressure system (I`ll call it a BC slider) slides down the coastFriday afternoon into Saturday. Ahead of this low, precipitation willstart to pick up, with a moderate amount of precipitation expected.Precipitation will probably start as rain below 1000 feet, but theexact track of the low will play a major role in when we see atransition to snow down to sea level. Expect mostly rain below 1000feet through Saturday morning. With a track closer to the coast, theECMWF brings cold air in from the north sooner and brings snow downto sea level Saturday afternoon. The GFS on the other hand tracks alittle farther from the coast, which brings the cold air in more fromthe east and later Saturday night. While 850 temperatures aren`texcellent Saturday night in the GFS, with offshore flow we get into amore continental air mass. The -6C to -8C typical range for lowelevation snow is more for a maritime air mass. Looking at1000-500-mb thickness values of around 520dm (well below thecontinental rule of thumb of 540dm), this is prime for a transitionto snow Saturday night as soon as flow starts to turn easterly. Myconceptual model is reflected in GFS model soundings Saturday night.In any case, low elevation snow seems likely Saturday night intoSunday.This time the cold airmass stays more in place over our area withseveral chances for showers early next week. Will probably seeadditional chances for low elevation snow through at least Tuesday.-McCoy 1 "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakeinthevalley Posted February 5, 2019 Report Share Posted February 5, 2019 Uh oh, PDX NWS suggesting that snow is "likely" on Saturday and Sunday. This from the latest AFD. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 5, 2019 Report Share Posted February 5, 2019 FV3 is starting to roll out. Thinking it's gonna be in line with this morning's euro. Snowier than the 12z so far. A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 5, 2019 Report Share Posted February 5, 2019 Snowier than the 12z so far. Bit less for PDX, but Saturday night is our first chance for snow. "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 5, 2019 Report Share Posted February 5, 2019 Uh oh, PDX NWS suggesting that snow is "likely" on Saturday and Sunday. This from the latest AFD.Recency bias is a powerful force. 4 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Sounder Posted February 5, 2019 Report Share Posted February 5, 2019 You know what this forum really needs to bring back that festive Dec 2008 feel? Kevin Martin. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted February 5, 2019 Report Share Posted February 5, 2019 FXUS66 KSEW 052254 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 253 PM PST Tue Feb 5 2019 .SYNOPSIS...Dry weather and cold temperatures will prevail for the next couple days as weak high pressure is over the area. Another round of lowland snow and windy conditions is possible Friday afternoon into Saturday as another cold system arrives from the north. The cold pattern will continue into early next week. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...Northerly flow near the surface and aloft brought a mostly sunny but cold day to the region. Some areas of stratocumulus that blossomed in the sun today will dissipate this evening. Mostly clear skies and light surface winds will herald another cold night ahead with widespread lows in the teens and 20s. A weakening upper ridge will shift into the Washington offshore waters on Wednesday while surface ridging over the interior of British Columbia weakens. This will limit Fraser outflow to little more than a trickle and high temperatures will moderate further across Western Washington with some spots getting into the lower 40s. A few high clouds will filter into the region toward afternoon as an upper trough digs southward several hundred miles offshore. This trough will dig southward into Oregon offshore waters on Thursday with a thicker cloud shield spreading into the region. Models keep the region dry on Thursday outside a stray shower perhaps reaching the central coast. Thursday may well be the warmest day of the bunch with high temperatures getting into the lower 40s for most of the lowlands with the exception of the North Interior. Changes of perhaps everyone`s interest begin to take place Thursday night into early Friday. Another system will dig southward out of British Columbia with precipitation beginning in the North Interior late Thursday night or early Friday and spreading southward through the day. As always, the devil is in the details. The 12Z Euro has heavier QPF than the 12Z GFS which could very well be in part to some stronger easterly low level flow in the GFS. Both models keep the low level thickness (1000-850 millibar) below 1300 meters for the onset of precipitation. At the same time, it seems there will be some degree of low level southerly flow developing from the Puget Sound southward Friday evening before another Fraser outflow event develops by Saturday. This, of course, makes for a potentially messy forecast challenge in terms of potential snow amounts, when or if it temporarily becomes mixed precipitation, etc. For now, it is best to monitor late week forecasts closely. In many ways, this could resemble the recent event, but model disagreements at this time point to a wide array of potential snow amounts Friday night and beyond. .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...The Euro and GFS have slightly different ideas with the track of the surface low on Saturday, but both essentially place it somewhere (plus or minus a hundred miles) west of the mouth of the Columbia River on Saturday afternoon. The depth of the system will certainly play a factor, but this is prime placement for additional snowfall on Saturday as moisture wraps around the system (think of this past Monday). With 1000-850 millibar thicknesses of 1280 meters or lower for much of the area, 850 millibar temperatures near -7 C, and gusty Fraser River outflow increasing throughout Saturday, it would be hard to imagine this not producing some noteworthy snow amounts for some of the lowlands in Western Washington. Another system could potentially follow this one on Monday, but looks weaker at this time than the weekend system. February 2019 is shaping up to be memorable around these parts. Watch this space. 27 && .AVIATION...Skies are mostly clear except for a couple patches of clouds this afternoon--one area of clouds has been banked up against the southeast side of the Olympics. There is an upper ridge just offshore with northerly flow aloft over Western Washington. The air is stable and should dry some more. High clouds will arrive later on Wednesday. KSEA...Mostly clear with a light northerly breeze. && .MARINE...Gradients eased but there is still enough Fraser outflow for a small craft advisory in the north. Another weather system will arrive late in the week--probably from Friday afternoon into 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 5, 2019 Report Share Posted February 5, 2019 Even if we get a big event it still won’t change the bigger picture of gradual warming. You know this as well as I. Promising looking model runs also don’t erase the unprecedented slew of warm records over the last 4-5 years, gradually drying and lengthening warm seasons, diminishing Cascade snow pack, shrinking alpine glaciers, etc etc. One big event/winter can do a lot to shape snowfall trends, though. This one might be arriving just in time to make the 2010s look pretty alright! A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 5, 2019 Report Share Posted February 5, 2019 From the Portland NWS. I like how they removed "seasonal weather" from the discussion. ONG TERM...Friday afternoon through Tuesday...A moderate lowpressure system (I`ll call it a BC slider) slides down the coastFriday afternoon into Saturday. Ahead of this low, precipitation willstart to pick up, with a moderate amount of precipitation expected.Precipitation will probably start as rain below 1000 feet, but theexact track of the low will play a major role in when we see atransition to snow down to sea level. Expect mostly rain below 1000feet through Saturday morning. With a track closer to the coast, theECMWF brings cold air in from the north sooner and brings snow downto sea level Saturday afternoon. The GFS on the other hand tracks alittle farther from the coast, which brings the cold air in more fromthe east and later Saturday night. While 850 temperatures aren`texcellent Saturday night in the GFS, with offshore flow we get into amore continental air mass. The -6C to -8C typical range for lowelevation snow is more for a maritime air mass. Looking at1000-500-mb thickness values of around 520dm (well below thecontinental rule of thumb of 540dm), this is prime for a transitionto snow Saturday night as soon as flow starts to turn easterly. Myconceptual model is reflected in GFS model soundings Saturday night.In any case, low elevation snow seems likely Saturday night intoSunday. This time the cold airmass stays more in place over our area withseveral chances for showers early next week. Will probably seeadditional chances for low elevation snow through at least Tuesday.-McCoyHaha. We have a dog named McCoy. 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted February 5, 2019 Report Share Posted February 5, 2019 Uh oh, PDX NWS suggesting that snow is "likely" on Saturday and Sunday. This from the latesThis is why pro mets don't want to post here. Believing in jinxes and thinking that the people on here know more about the weather than they do is pretty insulting to them, I would imagine. Yes, they are wrong sometimes, but not as wrong as the amateurs around here are, and I have been on this forum since the beginning. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 5, 2019 Report Share Posted February 5, 2019 Get another one and call him Jaya. "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 5, 2019 Report Share Posted February 5, 2019 One big event/winter can do a lot to shape snowfall trends, though. This one might be arriving just in time to make the 2010s look pretty alright!Of course. And we all know that’s what REALLY matters! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted February 5, 2019 Report Share Posted February 5, 2019 2-5-19 3:02 PM Model analysis, Snow storm thoughtsHere are some additional analysis and thoughts regarding the POTENTIAL for a Winter Storm (Poopers?) to impact WA/OR Friday evening and Saturday. It is important to point out a few things and the major differences comparing the air mass ahead of the system Friday evening/Saturday to what we recently had Saturday night into this Tuesday morning. This is based on the 12z ECMWF, GEM, GFS NCEP, WRF, and to a bit lesser extent the FV3. The ICON was thrown out because Hasselhoff doesn't know what the Columbia Gorge is. It's also based on the current air mass, snow cover Gorge/east, and the coming east winds. 1) We already have the cold air in place. We didn't with this last Snow Dusting, Skiff-o-Matic Spectacular Event. We have cold, arctic air especially at lower levels in the Columbia Basin and it won't be going anywhere.2) We have a snow covered Central/Eastern Gorge and Columbia Basin. It's not likely that will melt off ahead of the system Friday evening/Saturday. That will help the lower levels cool even further creating a 'refrigerator' effect if you will.3) East winds should develop sometimes Wednesday. We didn't have that with this past cold shot. The widespread snow cover over the Columbia Basin will aid in developing high pressure, likely stronger than is modeled currently. Additionally with clearing skies the next 2 nights over there temps will plummet into the single digits and possibly below zero. This will develop a very strong and arctic cold pool. As east winds increase Wednesday night through Thursday that low level arctic air over the Columbia basin will be sucked westward through the Gorge chilling PDX metro further. A reinforcement shot of cold air. It will also thicken up the cold layer from 4000' to the surface, but ever so slightly less than in January due to higher sun angle in February.4) As the system develops early Friday evening near Vancouver Island and drops south off the Washington coast early Saturday morning once it's about parallel with Ocean Shores/Long Beach that should begin to induce even more east winds keeping PDX very cold. It is possible immediate PDX metro is the only location that is sufficiently cold enough and areas south of Wilsonville are too warm as warmer air is pulled northward ahead of the low up the Willamette Valley. The exact track of the low is crucial for this. We want the low nearly hugging the Washington Coast as it drops south to minimize the warmer influence off the ocean and thus lessening any warm air advection. If it heads offshore further to our north than we won't see much of anything. *RIGHT NOW* no models show this, so relax. Okay.5) Another key difference. This time the cold air source is from Northwest Territories, Alberta, Saskatchewan. The arctic trough digs towards us from the northeast with no warming influence from the Pacific ocean. The fact it's coming in sharply from the northeast and not rather down the BC Coast should drive arctic air rather easily into Eastern Washington and the Columbia Basin. My thoughts: Based on all 12z runs I have growing consistency that PDX metro, Clark County in particular may see a Snow event/Storm late Friday night and Saturday. I'm currently at a 50-60% chance and leaving some wiggle room depending on how the upper level pattern is modeled the next 24-36 hours. If we didn't already have cold air in place going into this system and the snow cover in the Eastern Gorge, Columbia Basin I wouldn't be nearly as confident for snow. Any change in the upper level pattern Thursday through Friday to our north in the Northwest Territories, Alberta, and eastern British Columbia could "make or break" on whether or not we see snowfall. That will need to be watched carefully. The potential for a significant snow storm is there. Stay tuned!Great analysis as usual DJ! I agree with you on the cold pool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Codyjack Posted February 5, 2019 Report Share Posted February 5, 2019 You know what this forum really needs to bring back that festive Dec 2008 feel? Kevin Martin."Andy in Woodinville" and "TriForce" as well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 5, 2019 Report Share Posted February 5, 2019 I think you are partially joking but I also think you are actually superstitious about this stuff. Absolutely. I am a ridiculously superstitious person. My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ewnichols25 Posted February 5, 2019 Report Share Posted February 5, 2019 What sites are the best for model viewing? I use Tidbits but it doesn't give snow totals on the ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Sounder Posted February 5, 2019 Report Share Posted February 5, 2019 This is why pro mets don't want to post here. Believing in jinxes and thinking that the people on here know more about the weather than they do is pretty insulting to them, I would imagine. Yes, they are wrong sometimes, but not as wrong as the amateurs around here are, and I have been on this forum since the beginning. Yep. No one with any professional investment in weather would want to risk their credibility by engaging much on here. It's fun for us weenies to get excited together on here, but this place is pretty unhinged. There's certainly some very informed posters producing great analysis on here, don't get me wrong, but it's largely drowned out by people posting about what their weather.com app says and others genuinely becoming angry at WSWs being posted because of the "jinx". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 5, 2019 Report Share Posted February 5, 2019 FXUS66 KSEW 052254 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 253 PM PST Tue Feb 5 2019 .SYNOPSIS...Dry weather and cold temperatures will prevail for the next couple days as weak high pressure is over the area. Another round of lowland snow and windy conditions is possible Friday afternoon into Saturday as another cold system arrives from the north. The cold pattern will continue into early next week. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...Northerly flow near the surface and aloft brought a mostly sunny but cold day to the region. Some areas of stratocumulus that blossomed in the sun today will dissipate this evening. Mostly clear skies and light surface winds will herald another cold night ahead with widespread lows in the teens and 20s. A weakening upper ridge will shift into the Washington offshore waters on Wednesday while surface ridging over the interior of British Columbia weakens. This will limit Fraser outflow to little more than a trickle and high temperatures will moderate further across Western Washington with some spots getting into the lower 40s. A few high clouds will filter into the region toward afternoon as an upper trough digs southward several hundred miles offshore. This trough will dig southward into Oregon offshore waters on Thursday with a thicker cloud shield spreading into the region. Models keep the region dry on Thursday outside a stray shower perhaps reaching the central coast. Thursday may well be the warmest day of the bunch with high temperatures getting into the lower 40s for most of the lowlands with the exception of the North Interior. Changes of perhaps everyone`s interest begin to take place Thursday night into early Friday. Another system will dig southward out of British Columbia with precipitation beginning in the North Interior late Thursday night or early Friday and spreading southward through the day. As always, the devil is in the details. The 12Z Euro has heavier QPF than the 12Z GFS which could very well be in part to some stronger easterly low level flow in the GFS. Both models keep the low level thickness (1000-850 millibar) below 1300 meters for the onset of precipitation. At the same time, it seems there will be some degree of low level southerly flow developing from the Puget Sound southward Friday evening before another Fraser outflow event develops by Saturday. This, of course, makes for a potentially messy forecast challenge in terms of potential snow amounts, when or if it temporarily becomes mixed precipitation, etc. For now, it is best to monitor late week forecasts closely. In many ways, this could resemble the recent event, but model disagreements at this time point to a wide array of potential snow amounts Friday night and beyond. .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...The Euro and GFS have slightly different ideas with the track of the surface low on Saturday, but both essentially place it somewhere (plus or minus a hundred miles) west of the mouth of the Columbia River on Saturday afternoon. The depth of the system will certainly play a factor, but this is prime placement for additional snowfall on Saturday as moisture wraps around the system (think of this past Monday). With 1000-850 millibar thicknesses of 1280 meters or lower for much of the area, 850 millibar temperatures near -7 C, and gusty Fraser River outflow increasing throughout Saturday, it would be hard to imagine this not producing some noteworthy snow amounts for some of the lowlands in Western Washington. Another system could potentially follow this one on Monday, but looks weaker at this time than the weekend system. February 2019 is shaping up to be memorable around these parts. Watch this space. 27 && .AVIATION...Skies are mostly clear except for a couple patches of clouds this afternoon--one area of clouds has been banked up against the southeast side of the Olympics. There is an upper ridge just offshore with northerly flow aloft over Western Washington. The air is stable and should dry some more. High clouds will arrive later on Wednesday. KSEA...Mostly clear with a light northerly breeze. && .MARINE...Gradients eased but there is still enough Fraser outflow for a small craft advisory in the north. Another weather system will arrive late in the week--probably from Friday afternoon intoHmm. Lots of possibilities. My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 5, 2019 Report Share Posted February 5, 2019 Absolutely. I am a ridiculously superstitious person.I’ve picked up on that. I have my moments but try not to be. Seems strange for your profession. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighlandExperience Posted February 5, 2019 Report Share Posted February 5, 2019 What sites are the best for model viewing? I use Tidbits but it doesn't give snow totals on the ECMWF.Weather.us gives euro snow totals 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 5, 2019 Report Share Posted February 5, 2019 What sites are the best for model viewing? I use Tidbits but it doesn't give snow totals on the ECMWF.You gotta pay to play for that stuff. My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 5, 2019 Report Share Posted February 5, 2019 Lot of new posters coming out of the woodwork. Welcome guys! 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 5, 2019 Report Share Posted February 5, 2019 Of course. And we all know that’s what REALLY matters! Snow? Around here, pretty much. Besides drought. A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted February 5, 2019 Report Share Posted February 5, 2019 I noticed Cliff Mass said today that the EURO is one of the best models in the world and what's funny about that is he always talk's about how it's the gold standard best model. I guess it's a bad model now that it proved the old hippie wrong. 1 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted February 5, 2019 Report Share Posted February 5, 2019 Ryan MaueVerified account @RyanMaue 3h3 hours agoMorePersistent upper-level pattern with trough over Western US and ridge over SE US during the next 2-weeks.Week 1 and Week 2 temperature anomalies (ECMWF EPS) are quite similar. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 5, 2019 Report Share Posted February 5, 2019 I’ve picked up on that. I have my moments but try not to be. Seems strange for your profession.Oddly, it has almost nothing to do with weather. It’s more of a sports thing or clothing related if I have court. Totally irrational. I will actually get up and walk across the room to knock on wood if I have to. 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted February 5, 2019 Report Share Posted February 5, 2019 Lot of new posters coming out of the woodwork. Welcome guys!Very dry wood, mind you. 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 5, 2019 Report Share Posted February 5, 2019 Snow? Around here, pretty much. Besides drought. Sure. But there are many posters here that know the ins and outs of our region’s weather intimately enough to be pretty good at observing even subtle changes in climate. Something I value this place for, besides cheerleading big snow events of course. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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