February 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest - Part 1

[ewnichols25]

Lot of new posters coming out of the woodwork. Welcome guys!

Just decided to jump in today after lurking for a while. It's gonna be a historic month in the PNW

[Cloud]

I noticed Cliff Mass said today that the EURO is one of the best models in the world and what's funny about that is he always talk's about how it's the gold standard best model. I guess it's a bad model now that it proved the old hippie wrong.

To be fair, he's always acknowledged the Euro is the best model... he just doesn't like to use it because it's supposedly a lower resolution. It's quite contradicting, because if your higher resolutions are always playing catch up with the supposedly lower one.... then it's junk. 

[Requiem]

 

Ryan Maue‏Verified account @RyanMaue 3h3 hours ago

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Persistent upper-level pattern with trough over Western US and ridge over SE US during the next 2-weeks.

Week 1 and Week 2 temperature anomalies (ECMWF EPS) are quite similar.

 

 

 

 

 

Really nice. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Here is a guy those of you on twitter should ask to join this forum.  This is really interesting!

 

 

Michael Snyder‏ @SeattleWXGuy 31m31 minutes ago

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1/6 #wawx Here are a Few Arctic outbreaks facts for Western Washington.
We hear a lot about the Frazier River Outflow winds, especially in Arctic outbreaks. This gap provides cold us air access to western Washington from the interior of British Columbia.

 

 

 

 

Michael Snyder‏ @SeattleWXGuy 32m32 minutes ago

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2/6 The strength of these winds is dependent on the pressure difference or Gradient from Williams Lake, BC to Bellingham, WA (YWL-BLI). The stronger the gradient, the stronger the wind, and (usually) the stronger the arctic invasion into our region.

 

 

Michael Snyder‏ @SeattleWXGuy 32m32 minutes ago

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3/6 Any of you old timers that still live here remember the 1989 and 1990 arctic blasts. These are the record holders for strongest gradient YWL-BLI. 1990 had a whooping 25mb gradient, 1989 was at about 24mb. These were truly intense events.

 

 

Michael Snyder‏ @SeattleWXGuy 32m32 minutes ago

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4/6 Both of these events sent crippling snow/wind into the Puget Sound and have been the hallmark of arctic invasions at least in the last 60 years or so.

 

 

Michael Snyder‏ @SeattleWXGuy 32m32 minutes ago

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5/6 This much talked about setup on Friday/Saturday is showing the potential for gradients OVER 26mb. Also, Model agreement is as good as I can remember seeing.

 

 

Michael Snyder‏ @SeattleWXGuy 33m33 minutes ago

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6/6  As the high develops and retrogrades towards central British Columbia the strength of the high and resulting toughing over the Pac NW will change, so stay tuned.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I noticed Cliff Mass said today that the EURO is one of the best models in the world and what's funny about that is he always talk's about how it's the gold standard best model. I guess it's a bad model now that it proved the old hippie wrong.

Never discount the King. That's what scratches my head. He always post that the EURO is number one in verification scores, followed by the UKMET. Was surprising to see him discount it for you guys up there.

[Requiem]

I don't need to be looking over my shoulder when I leave my place at night. Good riddance.

 

Wait, what?

[Jesse]

Oddly, it has almost nothing to do with weather. It’s more of a sports thing or clothing related if I have court. Totally irrational. I will actually get up and walk across the room to knock on wood if I have to.

Interesting. Almost sounds a little OCD. I will probably catch grief for this at some point but that runs in my family. Knowing people who really have it I know that I don’t have a full blown case by any stretch, but I can see myself exhibiting some of the thought patterns sometimes.

[joaqweri]

FV3 out to 72hrs so far, has snow starting early friday with already half an inch of new snow in seattle by 10am

[Jbolin]

Wait, what?

You are too new a member to remember the "KM" days 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

 

Ryan Maue‏

Verified account

@RyanMaue

3h3 hours ago

 

 

More

Persistent upper-level pattern with trough over Western US and ridge over SE US during the next 2-weeks.

Week 1 and Week 2 temperature anomalies (ECMWF EPS) are quite similar.

 

 

Glad to see the EURO EPS not backing off one bit. Amazing consistency it's been showing.

[Deweydog]

Interesting. Almost sounds a little OCD. I will probably catch grief for this at some point but that runs in my family. Knowing people who really have it I know that I don’t have a full blown case by any stretch, but I can see myself exhibiting some of the thought patterns sometimes.

Might be, although it’s not universal so it’s kinda hard quantify. My wife I think has some truly OCD characteristics. She arranges things on tables, counters, etc. and often has no idea she’s doing it. She gets pretty crabby when I mess with her work.

[paulstorm]

Wait, what?

http://thevane.gawker.com/weather-hoaxer-threatens-the-nws-records-himself-yelli-1680725935as an example.  Do a search on your fav search engine of choice and you'll see lots of insight into this guy.

[Guest Sounder]

I don't need to be looking over my shoulder when I leave my place at night. Good riddance.

It isn't a classic western weather event without some death threats sprinkled in!

[bainbridgekid]

16 at Boeing Field this AM is pretty impressive.

They actually hit 15.

 

I live a mile from there and it's pretty incredible. Just took a walk and most of the main roads are still completely compact snow and ice.

[Deweydog]

The UJEAS would have picked up on this six weeks ago. Would have quelled some of the angst.

[Requiem]

When I took over managing and hosting the forum, he wanted to email out to all of the members is new "Severe Weather Service" alerts.

 

I said no.

 

He threatened to hack the site and to "hunt me down"

 

I kindly asked him to expand his coverage to San Quentin so he could issue alerts to his new buddies.

 

He didnt respond after that.

 

http://thevane.gawker.com/weather-hoaxer-threatens-the-nws-records-himself-yelli-1680725935 

 

Oh dear.

[Requiem]

http://thevane.gawker.com/weather-hoaxer-threatens-the-nws-records-himself-yelli-1680725935as an example.  Do a search on your fav search engine of choice and you'll see lots of insight into this guy.

 

Wow, he's...um....unstable. His forecasts don't even seem to be that good anyways.

[Jesse]

Oh dear.

 

Did you read the article.

[TT-SEA]

SEA back down to 32 after a scorching 34 today.    

 

And to think the lowest temp of the season before Sunday night was 31 on two different days.  

 

Today did do wonders for the road conditions it appears.   At least the freeways are pretty much clear now for a few days before the insanity begins again in 72 hours.  Although I think I still see ice in the left lane on I-90... which was in the sun all day.   Amazing.

 

[Requiem]

Did you read the article.

 

I certainly did. Apparently the Weather Channel called out a fake forecast of his a couple years ago.

[Jesse]

Wow, he's...um....unstable. His forecasts don't even seem to be that good anyways.

 

Severe tornado warning for greater Orange County!

[Guest Sounder]

Fantastic summary of all things Kevin Martin on this page: https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Kevin_Martin

 

My favorite part:

 

 

He eventually threatened Facebook with legal action, saying "Facebook will be handed a lawsuit if the last of the talks do not work. We are sending everything we can over as we speak, including hate pages about me, hate sites, and libel…DONATE TO THE LAWSUIT …"^[76]

When Martin showed up at Facebook Headquarters in Menlo Park, California, in 2014, he was quickly removed from the building by local police. On a subsequent visit, he shouted accusations through a bullhorn from a public sidewalk located a safe distance from the facility.^[77]

[Requiem]

This guy is actually scary. I thought he was just some stupid internet hack, but he seems legitimately unstable.

[Requiem]

[TT-SEA]

Even the deciduous trees here are still perfectly covered in snow despite being in the sun today.

 

The has not been any wind here since it snowed.   

[Jesse]

This guy is actually scary. I thought he was just some stupid internet hack, but he seems legitimately unstable.

 

It's kind of a trip to me that he actually posted here (or on Western which existed before here) at any point.

 

I still remember calling the UJEAS the "huge-a**". Didn't go over well.

[Requiem]

Just dipped back below freezing.

[Alex_Snakes]

 

 

Michael Snyder‏ @SeattleWXGuy 32m32 minutes ago

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3/6 Any of you old timers that still live here remember the 1989 and 1990 arctic blasts. These are the record holders for strongest gradient YWL-BLI. 1990 had a whooping 25mb gradient, 1989 was at about 24mb. These were truly intense events.

 

 

Michael Snyder‏ @SeattleWXGuy 32m32 minutes ago

More

4/6 Both of these events sent crippling snow/wind into the Puget Sound and have been the hallmark of arctic invasions at least in the last 60 years or so.

 

 

Michael Snyder‏ @SeattleWXGuy 32m32 minutes ago

More

5/6 This much talked about setup on Friday/Saturday is showing the potential for gradients OVER 26mb. Also, Model agreement is as good as I can remember seeing.

 

 

 

 

1989 was amazing. Only time I remember my dad telling me to go outside and check out the weather. I remember going to bed and it was raining, and to wake up with blowing snow and high wind. I will never forget it. 

 

If we get a pressure gradient higher than those two events, we are in for something pretty amazing. 

[joaqweri]

this dude really is wild

[Deweydog]

My favorite part of OWS was the February 2019 PNW lowland snowfall amounts of misspellings and grammar errors.

[Raindownonme]

Are there any members of the bc forum lurking here? Anybody know what's going on with our broken forum? Also anybody know why the lower mainland is getting the shaft in a massive way?

[Guest Sounder]

Are there any members of the bc forum lurking here? Anybody know what's going on with our broken forum? Also anybody know why the lower mainland is getting the shaft in a massive way?

Just stay here, we could use more BC members.

[Front Ranger]

Sure. But there are many posters here that know the ins and outs of our region’s weather intimately enough to be pretty good at observing even subtle changes in climate. Something I value this place for, besides cheerleading big snow events of course.

 

Yeah, I hear you. 

 

It's just funny how quickly the perceptions on local climate can change, and the relationships people draw between that and global climate change.

 

Regardless, the PNW lowlands have always seen a big difference between the median snowfall and the extremes that influence the average. So it's fun seeing how one or two big winters can completely alter a trend.

[Meatyorologist]

I don't need to be looking over my shoulder when I leave my place at night. Good riddance.

I feel like there's a backstory I'm missing out on here...?

[Requiem]

I feel like there's a backstory I'm missing out on here...?

 

See above!

[joaqweri]

I feel like there's a backstory I'm missing out on here...?

go up in the forums, some greasy stuff to sift through

[Jesse]

37/25 at PDX today. A cool -12F departure.

 

Monthly average of 39.1 so far, including today. If the month ended now it would be their third coldest February on record. Off to a good start!

[Gradient Keeper]

At 4 PM the YKA(Kamloops, BC) to OMK(Omak) gradient continues to remain near 10mb. What does that mean? This is northerly flow, so arctic air continues to constantly flood southward into North Central Washington and the Columbia Basin, our source of cold, arctic air. There is still no offshore flow through the Gorge or over the Cascades. I'm keeping an eye on that as well.

 

[Blizzard777]

Wait, what?

You leave no stone unturned! Perhaps private investigator is your calling

[Front Ranger]

Are there any members of the bc forum lurking here? Anybody know what's going on with our broken forum? Also anybody know why the lower mainland is getting the shaft in a massive way?

 

Probably 5-7 BC members regularly post here. Join in!