Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 For perspective, I get a lot of snow here in Leavenworth. When we do end up with bigger snows, the progression of forecasts for our area usually follows the script of just a few inches 2-3 days in advance, and then they slowly up the totals as we get closer to the event. Of course sometimes we have smaller events of just an inch or two, but so many times the forecast in advance will say 1-3 inches day/1-2 night, then 2-4 day/1-3 night, then 3-5 day, 2-4 night, etc. Rarely will they call for 8-10 inches 3-4 days in advance. Now for example, the AFD says 4-8 inches with maybe a foot. Talk about a large range, so they won't put up a forecast with the top amount at this time with that much uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Jesse Posted February 7, 2019 Popular Post Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Caught a nice sunset at Cape Horn earlier. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Is the Spot Wx output reliable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow maniac Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 1-3 inches by 4PM Saturday down the I-5 corridor south of Snohomish County until you reach Oregon. Looks like I get again, dead center snow shadow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fircrest Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Wow. A student at UW slipped and fell on the ice and died today. https://q13fox.com/2019/02/06/university-of-washington-student-slips-on-sidewalk-dies/ I teach 3rd grade and we also had dozens of kids falling at school today.This hit me pretty hard. I have an 18 year old daughter who goes to UW. She texted me about this around 1 PM today. I love snow and cold, but this kind of puts things in perspective. I can't imagine what the family is going through... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 I’d say his expertise lies more in the latter. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prairiedog Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Yeah, I should be better about these unverified rumors: apparently someone on the FOX12WeatherBlog heard/saw it. Steve Pierce definitely said it though. And Mark does think that the easterly influence is being underplayed for PDX.Mark never said that. Steve Pierce did. Be careful what you post. He was more aggressive in his low high temps but has backed off on that. There's already a lot of hyperbole here. Best to stick with what is actually stated and continue to analyze the models. It doesn't really matter who said what today. It matters Friday or Saturday when the action begins. models will change. The details will change. Here's what he said: as meteorologists we typically don’t give specific snow forecasts until about 2 days out. For example for this last snow event, at one point 4 days ahead of time some models were showing 4-6″! Luckily I didn’t jump on that (shoot a graphic out to Twitter) and once we got within two days of the event we started giving you that general Trace to 2″ forecast. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Did that rogue FV3 run ever right itself or did we just move into a warmer pattern from that point onward? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Mark never said that. Steve Pierce did. Be careful what you post. He was more aggressive in his low high temps but has backed off on that. There's already a lot of hyperbole here. Best to stick with what is actually stated and continue to analyze the models. It doesn't really matter who said what today. It matters Friday or Saturday when the action begins. models will change. The details will change. Here's what he said: as meteorologists we typically don’t give specific snow forecasts until about 2 days out. For example for this last snow event, at one point 4 days ahead of time some models were showing 4-6″! Luckily I didn’t jump on that (shoot a graphic out to Twitter) and once we got within two days of the event we started giving you that general Trace to 2″ forecast. I said I should be careful the first sentence of my post, it was a mistake (which I will try not to repeat in the future). This looks very marginal for anywhere south of Centralia but here's to hoping. "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest hawkstwelve Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 00z 3km NAM shows rain right along Puget Sound with snow inland around 5PM Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 22.8 currently. Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest hawkstwelve Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Southerly flow is much stronger and lasts longer on the 00z 3km NAM vs. what the Euro shows. That's most likely the reason for lesser snow amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakeinthevalley Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 This hit me pretty hard. I have an 18 year old daughter who goes to UW. She texted me about this around 1 PM today. I love snow and cold, but this kind of puts things in perspective. I can't imagine what the family is going through...Yeah, my daughter is a freshman at UW as well. I happen to live 250 miles away and she is my oldest. Loving her independence and we are are thrilled about that. Shows you how little control we, as parents, actually have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Southerly flow is much stronger and lasts longer on the 00z 3km NAM vs. what the Euro shows. That's most likely the reason for lesser snow amounts.Yukko. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Southerly flow is much stronger and lasts longer on the 00z 3km NAM vs. what the Euro shows. That's most likely the reason for lesser snow amounts. Spot WX showing 1 to 3 inches for much of the puget sound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 The 516 line is approaching Brookings at hour 84 of the NAM though. A little more sparse with the moisture than some of the other models. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest hawkstwelve Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 For comparison purposes, 3km NAM shows southerly flow continuing through the Sound through at least 1AM Saturday. Flow finally starts to turn semi-offshore around 3AM. Euro showed a switch to offshore flow by 4PM Friday from King County northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 The 516 line is approaching Brookings at hour 84 of the NAM though.Yummo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Wow. A student at UW slipped and fell on the ice and died today. https://q13fox.com/2019/02/06/university-of-washington-student-slips-on-sidewalk-dies/ I teach 3rd grade and we also had dozens of kids falling at school today. Just awful Condolences to the family. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 2-4" here by 4am Saturday on the 3K NAM. 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 All ready just in case. Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 ICON absolutely slams the Puget Sound Friday evening. 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Southerly flow is much stronger and lasts longer on the 00z 3km NAM vs. what the Euro shows. That's most likely the reason for lesser snow amounts. Thankfully the easterly component to the pressure gradient will deaden the south winds in the ESPL. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest hawkstwelve Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Totals by 4AM Saturday... Not too bad for the North Sound and VI. DT Seattle ends up getting near 4 inches which mainly falls after 10PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 The 3km NAM is bizarre. Plenty of moisture, but shows some falling as rain even around Bellingham. ICON coming in now and shows all snow North of about Centralia. Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 00z 3km NAM shows rain right along Puget Sound with snow inland around 5PM Friday. Rain in the Fraser Valley? Something's not right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Outstanding ICON for Puget Sound! That low is just hugging the coast like a MoFo! 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 All ready just in case. Stocked Up.JPGHopefully you have at least as much beer stocked. 3 A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 22.8 currently. This has turned into a really impressive cold snap, and things have just gotten started. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Outstanding ICON for Puget Sound! That low is just hugging the coast like a MoFo! Looks just like the ECMWF and GFS. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 lol - NAM precip maps several days out.FWIW, the 3km almost always under does snow here until it's within 24 hrs. 1 A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest hawkstwelve Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 lol - NAM precip maps several days out. I think this is where I mimic one of your "How dare people post weather maps on a weather forum!" posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 The 3km NAM is bizarre. Plenty of moisture, but shows some falling as rain even around Bellingham. ICON coming in now and shows all snow North of about Centralia. Gorgeous! The ECMWF has been insisting this will be all snow as well. At this range the Euro is the way to go on precip type. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Sorry guys I may have told my Seattle and Victoria colleagues that Seattle would get a foot of snow and Victoria would only see a trace. Just couldn't take the thought of another bust like last Sunday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest hawkstwelve Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Gorgeous! The ECMWF has been insisting this will be all snow as well. At this range the Euro is the way to go on precip type. For the record, I 100% agree with this. Just showing what the NAM is selling, that's all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Sorry guys I may have told my Seattle and Victoria colleagues that Seattle would get a foot of snow and Victoria would only see a trace. Just couldn't take the thought of another bust like last Sunday. Lol. What do you think we'll get from this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 One thing to keep in mind is the models are showing the 522 thickness line crossing Seattle early Friday evening. That in combination will all of the cold air already in place makes me doubt there will be much rain. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Lol. What do you think we'll get from this one? I'm going for 2-10" at the moment. Still a ton of uncertainty, going to be another real-time tracking situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 I'm going for 2-10" at the moment. Still a ton of uncertainty, going to be another real-time tracking situation. Man. 2 inches would be such a waste. I hope the Euro comes on board, because I know that theres a problem if the euro is still showing 2 or 3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 7, 2019 Report Share Posted February 7, 2019 Just for the record nothing will probably ever beat February 1862 for the Portland area, but I don't really count that because it was continuation of the insane cold that began in late December that winter. This is for Fort Vancouver. Just in a class all its own. 2 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts