February 2019 Weather in the Pacific Northwest - Part 1

[Jesse]

GEM says screws the GFS, dumps on PDX

 

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A ray of hope!

[wx_statman]

Really looking forward to a write up on that event once you get time to put one together.

 

And hopefully one on our historic month too, if things work out.

We shall see. I do those write ups when the inspiration strikes.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

GEM says screws the GFS, dumps on PDX

 

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Wow

[VancouverIslandSouth]

I'm curious if tomorrow will end up cooler than today. Ended up with a high of 35F here today in full sun. Tomorrow the upper levels will warm a bit but it will most likely be cloudy, potentially with light flurries. It certainly says something that after 3 days of moderation at this time of year the airmass still hasn't warmed considerably. The other big thing we have going for us in this event is that all our outflow sources are already chalked full of cold dry air, won't take much of a push to get it back to the coast.

[Requiem]

REALLY hope that GFS was a warm outlier or something.

 

EDIT: Of course as soon as I type that up it shows a semi-decent event on Wednesday.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

00z is better with the second wave the the 12z. The 3rd wave ia the one I'm interested in.

[snow_wizard]

At very least we had a solid early February cool snap in a winter that was looking dead in the water just a few weeks ago. And worst case scenario is it ends with another big event up north this weekend.

 

Up here just what we've had so far is pretty solid.  This next snow and subsequent cold will put us in rare territory.  If we get another round after that it will be top tier.

[snow_wizard]

One thing for sure is the Seattle area will get snow.  Every run of every models shows at least a few inches.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Here it is again:

 

[Tyler Mode]

Today's weather minute! Fog, then sunshine, with a shifting camera view due to melting snow

 

https://youtu.be/JJwVQPgJYPE

[Andrew.]

GFS large snowstorm PDX Tuesday

[Jesse]

Up here just what we've had so far is pretty solid.  This next snow and subsequent cold will put us in rare territory.  If we get another round after that it will be top tier.

 

Yeah. Down here I had about an inch and a half of snow with three consecutive highs in the 30s, and one low in the teens so far. Decent.

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS hits Portland on Tueaday! 

 

[Jesse]

GFS large snowstorm PDX Tuesday

 

The delay appears to be due to the first trough digging in colder and slowing things down.

[Phil]

FWIW, it seems to be mostly the GFS family that is vacillating w/ the handling of the Siberia/Pacific wavetrain in the near term (which has downstream consequences).

 

There seems to be less near term instability (so far) from the ECMWF/EPS and GGEM/GEPS, from what I can tell. That can change, but the GFS has always been, well, you know.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3rd wave looks cold.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

GFS has the s valley in the snow for 1-2 days. Nice!

[Perturbed Member]

D**n the 00z GFS hates us.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

You know we are getting greedy when we are looking past what will be a legendary event over the weekend.

[GHweatherChris]

GFSKING???

[Requiem]

You know we are getting greedy when we are looking past what will be a legendary event over the weekend.

 

What legendary event? At least for down here? Up in Puget Sound it will probably be a major event, yes.

[Front Ranger]

Up here just what we've had so far is pretty solid. This next snow and subsequent cold will put us in rare territory. If we get another round after that it will be top tier.

Yup.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

What legendary event? At least for down here? Up in Puget Sound it will probably be a major event, yes.

GFS drops 6” down here from Sat-Tue

[Requiem]

GFS drops 6” down here from Sat-Tue

 

Oh, nice! That makes me more confident, there's no reason that it should drop that much less north of the South Valley (due to the the east wind zone).

[Guest hawkstwelve]

Totals by 10AM Wednesday...

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

d**n the 00z GFS hates us.

 

I really feel for you guys. Major steps back tonight. We all got over confident.

[wxmet]

I wonder when was the last time KSEA reported Heavy Snow/Freezing Fog. Seems like a possibility this weekend as the right dynamics are in play.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Totals by 10AM Wednesday...

 

 

Only like 15" here...Lame.

[Perturbed Member]

REALLY hope that GFS was a warm outlier or something.

 

EDIT: Of course as soon as I type that up it shows a semi-decent event on Wednesday.

Meh, snow events further in the future on a model have much less value then ones that are closer. Those events disappear in an instant.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Down to 30 

[Requiem]

Meh, snow events further in the future on a model have much less value then ones that are closer. Those events disappear in an instant.

 

I know. Just trying to find a silver lining as we go into a supposed "historical period".

[SouthHillFrosty]

Are we really going to be mad if we only get 6 inches from this weekend for the puget sound? I'll be happy with that

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Down to 30 

 

Midnight lows south of Aurora. 

[Guest hawkstwelve]

Are we really going to be mad if we only get 6 inches from this weekend for the puget sound? I'll be happy with that

 

12 inches or bust is what some members on this forum seem to be thinking.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

It should be noted what the models show for Friday-Saturday is not a traditional big snowmaker in this region. Almost feels like a luckly alignment of factors, if it does indeed come through in a big way. A more traditional track for a big snowmaker would be a low that forms off the Northern BC coast, swings out to sea then loops back ashore . A less common but potentially far more impressive snowmaker would be a low undercutting the ridge without collapsing it and riding into the coast along the Arctic boundary.

[seattleweatherguy]

Let's see what euro has to say

[Phil]

And the 00z GFS is still a great run for 95% of the region, from the looks of it.

 

FWIW, I’ve had my share of late-night model riding sessions over the years, and one way to tell when it’s probably gonna be a good one is when you find yourself disappointed in a run that would ordinarily leave you feeling elated. Just saying.

 

And there will always be that one random model run that screws you and leaves you in a sh*tty mood for the next 6-12hrs. It’s nothing to worry about. In 2016 here it was a terrible 12z Euro run (and EPS) that did it.

[Esquimalt]

It should be noted what the models show for Friday-Saturday is not a traditional big snowmaker in this region. Almost feels like a luckly alignment of factors, if it does indeed come through in a big way. A more traditional track for a big snowmaker would be a low that forms off the Northern BC coast, swings out to sea then loops back ashore . A less common but potentially far more impressive snowmaker would be a low undercutting the ridge without collapsing it and riding into the coast along the Arctic boundary.

Are you discouraged tonight by what you’re seeing?

[Perturbed Member]

I really feel for you guys. Major steps back tonight. We all got over confident.

Yeah pretty frustrating. Even for the valley I got nearly nothing Monday. Got a bit too confident about this weekend. A good reminder that we can never forget where we live and how hostile this climate is for snow.

[Kayla]

You guys are going to go nuts stressing out over every single mesoscale detail. The great large scale pattern continues for the next two weeks. You will all see plenty of snow at some point within this blocking period.