Hawkeye Posted February 11, 2019 Report Share Posted February 11, 2019 00z UK This is at least as juicy as the FV3 for eastern Iowa... over an inch of precip. It still has 0.6" back to Des Moines. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NH4NU Posted February 11, 2019 Report Share Posted February 11, 2019 Incredible. Local Mets are going to take heat on this one once again. Models were never even remotely close to this unreliable back in the early 2000s. What has happened? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 11, 2019 Report Share Posted February 11, 2019 Incredible. Local Mets are going to take heat on this one once again. Models were never even remotely close to this unreliable back in the early 2000s. What has happened?I would somewhat disagree -- models have gotten better. But analyzing them and with good olde analytical forecasting is a lost art. too many model worship without being able to tell the why's and whats of the atmosphere interactions -- without models. A good % of mets would be lost without models. They never learned (or forgot) how to forecast without them.... That's where the flip flopping comes from. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted February 11, 2019 Report Share Posted February 11, 2019 Incredible. Local Mets are going to take heat on this one once again. Models were never even remotely close to this unreliable back in the early 2000s. What has happened?Different storm setups or they have changed the inputs alot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 11, 2019 Report Share Posted February 11, 2019 NWS thinks a 4-6" w some ice looks like a safe bet for SEMI. Although, changes can still happen. We will see!. As for now, looks messy. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 11, 2019 Report Share Posted February 11, 2019 DMX 9:21 update still has me 5-8" but now they added the "locally higher amounts possible" wording. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted February 11, 2019 Report Share Posted February 11, 2019 It's not a lost cause yet, Lincoln and Omaha are either going to be in the heavy band or miss it just too the south by one county. Still some time for things to change! Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 11, 2019 Report Share Posted February 11, 2019 00z UK This is at least as juicy as the FV3 for eastern Iowa... over an inch of precip. It still has 0.6" back to Des Moines. us_model-en-087-0_modgbr_2019021100_60_5660_220.pngNot as bad as I thought. And here I go looking at models ) --- in all seriousness- I don't think the E trend is over. Storm is more progressive (at least here) before it slows down to the E. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted February 11, 2019 Report Share Posted February 11, 2019 It's not a lost cause yet, Lincoln and Omaha are either going to be in the heavy band or miss it just too the south by one county. Still some time for things to change!Yeah like I said before, models always drastically decrease totals then radar comes along and proves them wrong. That's been the case for most storms here this year. It's not over till it's over imo. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 11, 2019 Report Share Posted February 11, 2019 Euro says south 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 11, 2019 Report Share Posted February 11, 2019 Hr 36 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 11, 2019 Report Share Posted February 11, 2019 Still snowing in Wisconsin 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted February 11, 2019 Report Share Posted February 11, 2019 Wow. The entire state of WI is gonna get hammered. Looking good now in my neck of the woods as well. Looks like the 8th school cancellation in the past month will be forthcoming. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 11, 2019 Report Share Posted February 11, 2019 It's too bad this system can't wrap up a little earlier. The snow in Iowa largely comes in a single wave rather than a robust deformation zone that curls back and keeps the snow falling for a long duration. Wisconsin will be in line to get that. It should be a pretty intense wave, though. It's too bad it'll mostly fall between 6pm and 2am, just like all bigger storms. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 11, 2019 Report Share Posted February 11, 2019 It can stop going east now 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 11, 2019 Report Share Posted February 11, 2019 I would take the 3-4" shown there, better than nam and gfs for sure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 11, 2019 Report Share Posted February 11, 2019 This storm will likely push the CR/IC area to total seasonal average. So anything from here on out could be seen as a bonus. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 11, 2019 Report Share Posted February 11, 2019 Nam/GFS/hrrr vs rdps/gdps/euro/wrf suite Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 11, 2019 Report Share Posted February 11, 2019 Here's the 00z euro qpf map from weather.us 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted February 11, 2019 Report Share Posted February 11, 2019 It can stop going east nowI agree! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted February 11, 2019 Report Share Posted February 11, 2019 6z HRRR gives me 6 to 7 inches...so that is the only model and only model run I will believe! Ha! But anything over 5, I'll be happy with. Good luck everyone...NE IA and Wisconsin seem to be the winners at this point Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bellona Posted February 11, 2019 Report Share Posted February 11, 2019 NAM looks pretty good in IA for us East of I35. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 11, 2019 Report Share Posted February 11, 2019 NAM looks pretty good in IA for us East of I35.yep held course for the most part... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 11, 2019 Report Share Posted February 11, 2019 3km still sucks outside E.IA and Wisky Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 11, 2019 Report Share Posted February 11, 2019 3km still sucks outside E.IA and Wiskyha ha ya from 6 inches in Rochester to 14 in La Crosse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted February 11, 2019 Report Share Posted February 11, 2019 New NAM actually gives Omaha and Lincoln 4-5 inches isolated 6 inches! Think its trying to inch back NW now. Time will tell Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 11, 2019 Report Share Posted February 11, 2019 Better off going with the 3KM at this range... My gut call in IA- is warnings E of I-35 and North of Hwy 34. WWA further W with likely a cold bologna sandwich for NW IA. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 11, 2019 Report Share Posted February 11, 2019 RDPS lining up with my thoughts on this event. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2019021106&fh=39&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_mw&p=snku_acc&m=rdps 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 11, 2019 Report Share Posted February 11, 2019 No doubt the S and E trend continues on 6Z gfs-- turning into a turd even E of I-35 in IA-- the Omahadome is spreading E.... Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 11, 2019 Report Share Posted February 11, 2019 Better off going with the 3KM at this range... My gut call in IA- is warnings E of I-35 and North of Hwy 34. WWA further W with likely a cold bologna sandwich for NW IA.CYA for counties near DSM-- but just as I said. (expect the warnings W of DSM to be downgraded.) Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 11, 2019 Report Share Posted February 11, 2019 It seems I have a better chance of 6" with WWA than WSW-- been that way for the last 2 years + -- I see no way warming material will be met here. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 11, 2019 Report Share Posted February 11, 2019 Looks like a complete turd fest through the whole run Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 11, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 11, 2019 The trends over the past 24 hours are now beginning to shift SE as the models are now all coming into agreement that the southern piece coming off the main vorticity is tracking farther S across the S Plains across the TX Panhandle region as they all collect better data. Check out the last 8 runs off the GFS 500mb map below and one will notice how much farther S this energy is tracking and is now dictating the SE trend. By far, the UKIE model was the best at handling this one IMO. Locally speaking, this may be paying dividends across N IL as the GFS is coming in colder/snowier....I'm still worried about the warm layer and this may in fact just end up being a nowcast event....#nailbiter 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted February 11, 2019 Report Share Posted February 11, 2019 Another night time snow. DVN has us for 8” which I believe since it is back to work tomorrow. Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 11, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 11, 2019 06z FV3... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 11, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 11, 2019 00z EPS...drastic E shift with the heaviest snows and now targeting N/C WI... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 11, 2019 Report Share Posted February 11, 2019 Looking good for at least 6-10 here NAM/RGEM/FV3 all with 10+ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 11, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 11, 2019 Looking good for at least 6-10 here NAM/RGEM/FV3 all with 10+I like where you sit...that also goes with the rest of Wisco...the Lehs signal is also showing up which could be an added bonus... 06z GEFS... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 11, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 11, 2019 06z Euro... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 11, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 11, 2019 00z Euro...ice accumulation...hoping we end up a degree or two colder around here... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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