February 2019 Weather Observations and Discussion Part 2

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This run is incredible. Amazing to see the GEM trend this way too...Maybe its the final trend?!

[luvssnow_spokane]

LEGIT! DRY BUT LEGIT!

 

[wx_statman]

February 1891 is the actual benchmark for Portland. The high was 48 that month. Very analogous to this month with sustained cold but no major arctic airmasses. The cold last until early March, with Portland seeing 38/28 on March 1 and a couple inches of snow on March 4-5.

 

1917 is a pretty great example in the central valley, even later into the season. No highs above 50 in Salem from 2/13 - 3/15 that year (31 straight). And a crapload of lowland snow across western OR, as you know. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

GFS is just setting us up for a huge overrunning event at some point, huge!!

Gotta love those massive, tree breaking, roof collapsing, road flooding slop fest’s. NO THANK YOU!

[Jesse]

I hope you guys can pull off a sub-freezing high. Probably a stretch but I imagine that's something a strong gorge outflow can do down there.

 

By next week it would generally take strong Gorge outflow and pretty solid overcast/precip. But still doable as history shows.

[luvssnow_spokane]

This run is incredible. Amazing to see the GEM trend this way too...Maybe its the final trend?!

Without the EURO on board we can kiss this all goodbye.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Seems to support continued cold.

Yeah, it does. Hoping the EURO shows something similar.

[BLI snowman]

1917 is a pretty great example in the central valley, even later into the season. No highs above 50 in Salem from 2/13 - 3/15 that year (31 straight). And a crapload of lowland snow across western OR, as you know. 

 

Yeah, 1917 was the early 20th century version of 2011.

 

Jesse's great grandpa was probably delirious with joy that spring and summer.

[GHweatherChris]

Gotta love those massive, tree breaking, roof collapsing, road flooding slop feasts. NO THANK YOU!

Bring it on, YOLO!

[Cloud]

GFS trying to go out with a bang before the FV3 takes over? Jesus.

 

If this verify, why would they retire it?

[wx_statman]

By next week it would generally take strong Gorge outflow and pretty solid overcast/precip. But still doable as history shows.

 

That's one aspect of our climate that we've definitely lost. Pretty amazing we once had three March blasts with highs in the 20's out of 6 years. 1865, 1867, and 1870. 

[BLI snowman]

Nice to see the 00z models take away the snow down here. We wouldn't want any of that.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Without the EURO on board we can kiss this all goodbye.

Umm no the euro has not been great the last 2 weeks.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Models showing a OR/CA landfall bode well for Oregon. Go 100 miles north. So what?? Lol.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Bring it on, YOLO!

Nothing better than getting a ton of snow and seeing it go to waste the same day. Breaks my heart and makes me sad.

[wx_statman]

Yeah, 1917 was the early 20th century version of 2011.

 

Jesse's great grandpa was probably delirious with joy that spring and summer.

 

And then had a meltdown the following December. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

No model has a handle on this yet.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Nothing better than getting a ton of snow and seeing it go to waste the same day. Breaks my heart and makes me sad.

No different than a sunny day that ends in rain.

[Jesse]

Yeah, 1917 was the early 20th century version of 2011.

 

Jesse's great grandpa was probably delirious with joy that spring and summer.

My great grandfather on my paternal grandmother’s side was actually living in McMinnville, OR at the time. That’s the side of my family with the deepest PNW roots, going back to pioneer days.

 

My other great Grandfathers were in Minnesota, North Dakota and Tennessee in the 1910s. The one from ND was about to migrate to California with his family in a Ford model A, in 1921. They actually used the Columbia River Highway for their journey, when it was relatively new. They settled in the Bay Area originally. Great Grandfather from Minnesota didn’t come out here until WWII, when he moved his family out west to work at the Kaiser Shipyards. Great grandfather in Tennessee never lived on the west side but did live in Pendleton in the 1950s and 60s.

[luvssnow_spokane]

No model has a handle on this yet.

^^^^ This!

[Timmy]

Your mom’s house.

Weird cause my house is 1400’ higher than hers.

[luvssnow_spokane]

No different than a sunny day that ends in rain.

Lol not at all, Way different! You can do better

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My great grandfather on my paternal grandmother’s side was actually living in McMinnville, OR at the time. That’s the side of my family with the deepest PNW roots, going back to pioneer days.

 

My other great Grandfathers were in Minnesota, North Dakota and Tennessee in the 1910s. The one from ND was about to migrate to California with his family in a Ford model A, in 1921. They actually used the Columbia River Highway for their journey, when it was relatively new. They settled in the Bay Area originally. Great Grandfather from Minnesota didn’t come out here until WWII, when he moved his family out west to work at the Kaiser Shipyards. Great grandfather in Tennessee never lived on the west side but did live in Pendleton in the 1950s and 60s.

 

Nice family history! 

[GHweatherChris]

Weird cause my house is 1400’ higher than hers.

#microclimate

[Jesse]

Nice family history!

Thanks. I’m definitely into that stuff.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Through the 27th the operational GFS is colder than the mean, but there are even colder ensemble members.

[James Jones]

My great grandfather on my paternal grandmother’s side was actually living in McMinnville, OR at the time. That’s the side of my family with the deepest PNW roots, going back to pioneer days.

 

My other great Grandfathers were in Minnesota, North Dakota and Tennessee in the 1910s. The one from ND was about to migrate to California with his family in a Ford model A, in 1921. They actually used the Columbia River Highway for their journey, when it was relatively new. They settled in the Bay Area originally. Great Grandfather from Minnesota didn’t come out here until WWII, when he moved his family out west to work at the Kaiser Shipyards. Great grandfather in Tennessee never lived on the west side but did live in Pendleton in the 1950s and 60s.

 

D**n, nice stuff.

 

Too bad he didn't note whether or not the -24 reading in December 1919 was legitimate...

[seattleweatherguy]

Hope the euro keeps the chances alive. Obviously it's gonna change maybe even back and forth

[Jesse]

I was just realizing how cold the Columbia Basin stayed today. 27/13 in Pasco with low clouds and mist. Not too shabby for a month shy of the equinox.

[Deweydog]

Weird cause my house is 1400’ higher than hers.

Weird year!!!

[BLI snowman]

I was just realizing how cold the Columbia Basin stayed today. 27/13 in Pasco with low clouds and mist. Not too shabby for a month shy of the equinox.

 

A nice living-world example of how exaggerated the demise of our low level cold season can be when favorable factors are in place.

[MossMan]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Clear shift toward a much colder ensemble camp in the Feb 26-Mar 2 range.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Mother load of cold trying to drop down on us on the EURO.

 

[luvssnow_spokane]

I’ve been pointing this out since day one. Anyone rooting for weather that hurts our vulnerable population, toys with the mental well being of some on this board, feeds fuel to the climate deniers, stresses our infrastructure, and delays the cherry blossoms, is akin to rooting for the Nazis to win WWII. It’s absolutely disgusting and people sharing maps with cold and snow are doing a disservice.

Now people please, understand that with the sun angles reaching all time highs so far this season and days that are hours longer that those as the beginning of the year, any snow that will fall will be rain. Also temps probably are not even going to be close to freezing. So just settle down and let’s discuss how the Warm Blob is expected to renter our lives for El Niño round two. Also cherry blossom pictures please.

My opinions are unchanged... thanks! I do not like green eggs and ham nor do I like snow to rain transitions but my opinion does not allow others to have their opinions and for us to agree to disagree. It is all good and what makes the world go around. Disagreement is Very different thing than preventing someone from speaking and forcing them to agree. AND YES sun angles are at play.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We switched over to all snow about 15 minutes ago. Coming down pretty hard. 

[BLI snowman]

Clear shift toward a much colder ensemble camp in the Feb 26-Mar 2 range.

 

Something something EPS

[luvssnow_spokane]

[TT-SEA]

Total snow for the weekend per 00Z ECMWF.     Highs in the low to mid 40s across all of the lowlands on Sunday... 43 in Seattle.

 

 

[GHweatherChris]

There he is