February 2019 Weather Observations and Discussion Part 2

[TacomaWaWx]

Vancouver to Redding snow would be nice

[snow_wizard]

From the record-breaking snow in the PNW, to record cold all over the West, Plains, and Midwest, to the amazing snowstorm hitting the Southwest right now, the past few weeks have to go down as one of the most incredible periods for winter weather in the CONUS in many years. 

 

To me this has a 19th century look to it.  The combination of sustained cold and ample moisture in February is something that barely happened in the 20th century.  I am pretty well sold on the idea the decreased solar cycles are responsible for the much healthier blocking.  Obviously it will be a few years before we know if this is some kind of a regime change or not.

[MossMan]

Already down to 31.6. My back yard refused to melt out! It’s wondeful!

[snow_wizard]

I'm on the Portland camp. I want them to score but it's also ok for others to hope they get snow up north as well. I really just want wall to wall 3 feet on the whole f.ckin west coast.

 

The low track could possibly find the sweet spot for both Portland and Seattle to score.  It would be the proverbial threading of the needle though.  I think places south of Seattle have an ok shot at an inch or so Monday.

[snow_wizard]

Already down to 31.6. My back yard refused to melt out! It’s wondeful!

 

Truly unreal for this late in the season.  It would be one thing if this were January, but wow!

[Bryant]

Extrapolating the 00z nam at hour 36, it's clearly sending the low into Vancouver island. Sorry guys

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Already down to 31.6. My back yard refused to melt out! It’s wondeful!

I still have 9 inches of snow everywhere and it has not melted any the last 2 days. Pretty amazing.

[snow_wizard]

Checked in with a 46 - 26 temperature range today.  Even the 46 felt crisp due to low dew points.  Tomorrow will probably be more like 40 for a high.

[Jesse]

Mark has spoken. He says 100% chance the low goes way too far north for PDX so forget about even a remote chance of snow. The northward trend is locked in.

 

Kidding, he’s an actual meteorologist so he discusses the wide range of possibilities at this juncture, including Portland snow.

 

https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2019/02/21/rumors-of-monday-tuesday-snow-heres-the-weather-scoop/

[TacomaWaWx]

The low track could possibly find the sweet spot for both Portland and Seattle to score. It would be the proverbial threading of the needle though. I think places south of Seattle have an ok shot at an inch or so Monday.

yeah it’ll be a low chance of this being major snow for both Portland and Seattle, maybe a moderate snow event Seattle south and big snow for Portland, maybe not. multiple ways it can play out though it’s a matter of inches on where the low goes.

[Deweydog]

Mark has spoken. He says 100% chance the low goes way too far north for PDX so forget about even a remote chance of snow. The northward trend is locked in.

 

Kidding, he’s an actual meteorologist so he discusses the wide range of possibilities at this juncture, including Portland snow.

 

https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2019/02/21/rumors-of-monday-tuesday-snow-heres-the-weather-scoop/

A little snake-bitten perhaps after he went Mark’s version of full-weenie 96 hours out last time.

[MossMan]

yeah it’ll be a low chance of this being major snow for both Portland and Seattle, maybe a moderate snow event Seattle south and big snow for Portland, maybe not. multiple ways it can play out though it’s a matter of inches on where the low goes.

Big snow from Lynnwood to Vancouver BC. Too warm everywhere else. BAM!

[snow_wizard]

yeah it’ll be a low chance of this being major snow for both Portland and Seattle, maybe a moderate snow event Seattle south and big snow for Portland, maybe not. multiple ways it can play out though it’s a matter of inches on where the low goes.

 

Indeed.  The 12z ECMWF showed a very tight precip gradient on Monday.  A short distance could make a big difference.

[bainbridgekid]

Mark has spoken. He says 100% chance the low goes way too far north for PDX so forget about even a remote chance of snow. The northward trend is locked in.

 

Kidding, he’s an actual meteorologist so he discusses the wide range of possibilities at this juncture, including Portland snow.

 

https://fox12weather.wordpress.com/2019/02/21/rumors-of-monday-tuesday-snow-heres-the-weather-scoop/

The reality is that it's just too soon to know where this sucker will go. We still have nearly 4 days of teeth gnashing ahead of us.

 

More than likely there will be a continued North trend over the next few days to some degree. We all know this. But that doesn't mean it will happen for sure, and we don't know the degree.

 

The bottom line is that yet another significant lowland snow event is very likely. That alone is amazing no matter where it ends up bulls-eyeing. 

 

It's funny his first image was the Superbowl 2017 storm. I was just thinking about this feeling similar. Doesn't mean the result will be the same though.

[Jesse]

The reality is that it's just too soon to know where this sucker will go. We still have nearly 4 days of teeth gnashing ahead of us.

 

More than likely there will be a continued North trend over the next few days to some degree. We all know this. But that doesn't mean it will happen for sure, and we don't know the degree.

 

The bottom line is that yet another significant lowland snow event is very likely. That alone is amazing no matter where it ends up bulls-eyeing.

I agree with this take.

[TacomaWaWx]

[Frontal Snowsquall]

yeah it’ll be a low chance of this being major snow for both Portland and Seattle, maybe a moderate snow event Seattle south and big snow for Portland, maybe not. multiple ways it can play out though it’s a matter of inches on where the low goes.

The margin for error is so small. I mean if the system starts it's track north one half step too late then we'll be too dry or if it's too early we'll get mostly ice.

[TacomaWaWx]

The margin for error is so small. I mean if the system starts it's track north one half step too late then we'll be too dry or if it's too early we'll get mostly ice.

Yeah the margin for error is very thin for the people in Oregon, in Washington the margin for error is much less, gonna be a stressful few days for snow lovers in the willamette valley and people south of centralia/chehalis.

[Perturbed Member]

Early Sunday continues to look kind of interesting with that surface low

 

 

[Guest CulverJosh]

Newport. Book it.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Yeah the margin for error is very thin for the people in Oregon, in Washington the margin for error is much less, gonna be a stressful few days for snow lovers in the willamette valley and people south of centralia/chehalis.

Yeah, it's going to be a hectic next few days but this is what I signed up for.

[Perturbed Member]

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Newport. Book it.

I'm going to go with Waldport.

[Perturbed Member]

 

[bainbridgekid]

00z NAM. Significantly North of the 18z NAM, but still a bit South of the GFS.

[BLI snowman]

00z NAM takes it in around Coos Bay.

[TacomaWaWx]

NAM is a little more north, if it verified it would be ideal for Portland. If it continues further north itll get riskier for southerners.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

 

Man, this is going to be a nailbiter right to the finish line.

[Perturbed Member]

This low needs to go right to North Bend. 

 

North Bend, OR. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

I dont think it will track further north than cannon beach.

[MossMan]

Astoria.

[Timmy]

00z NAM takes it in around Coos Bay.

perf

[TacomaWaWx]

If it went to Astoria it’d be an Centralia chehalis north event essentially

[Omegaraptor]

Out of curiosity, what do you guys do in the summer? Root for heat waves?

[Frontal Snowsquall]

This feels like we're tracking a hurricane. The good news is that the cone of uncertainty will shrink with each passing runs.

[Jesse]

Out of curiosity, what do you guys do in the summer? Root for heat waves?

Some like them, others don’t. Or maybe just don’t like them at the same frequency.

[TacomaWaWx]

Out of curiosity, what do you guys do in the summer? Root for heat waves?

I enjoy the sun, I root for good thunderstorms too. I love both summer and winter, don’t like it when it gets hotter than 85 but either way Pacific Northwest is the best place no matter what season or weather!

[MossMan]

Out of curiosity, what do you guys do in the summer? Root for heat waves?

Yes!!!

Oh and deadly marine pushes as well!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Out of curiosity, what do you guys do in the summer? Root for heat waves?

I root for heatwaves and the occasional thunderstorms that form over the Cascades.

[Blizzard777]

18z trended _________.