February 2019 Weather Observations and Discussion Part 2

[Geos]

Snowing moderate here and 31 degrees.

What's your dew point?

[TacomaWaWx]

Really hoping it works out for Portland here in the end, but this so far seems like areas from the columbia river north are more likely to get it this point, just a feeling I have that it will end up that way, most people in Washington have already had atleast 10-12 inches this winter, another round would really cement it here as a big time snow month, but I’m really hoping Seattle can get atleast a couple inches,not a major round of snow again and Portland can get a big dump, only time will tell what happens

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Yeah... and you make thousands of dollars every time it snows.    That might influence my opinion too!

 

Haha well believe it or not it kinda sucks going out and plowing snow for 60hrs. Some of the clients are customers from the late 70's believe it or not so i feel obligated.

[snow_wizard]

Looking more likely Seattle will get snow on Monday and also stay cold longer.  The best of both worlds if true!  The way the models are trending toward keeping the GOA heights up gives me hope we will be pretty cold even on Feb 28.  Coldest Feb since 1936 is certainly in play for the Puget Sound lowlands.  As it turns out the Puget Sound Lowlands will easily beat 1956 due to the fact SEA was abnormally cold compared to other stations that month.  That leaves 1989 and it will probably be a close call on that.

[TT-SEA]

Haha well believe it or not it kinda sucks going out and plowing snow for 60hrs. Some of the clients are customers from the late 70's believe it or not so i feel obligated.

 

 

I would stay up all night and do sh*tty work for a couple days to make almost $10K... and want to do it again.  

 

I could pay for almost a year's tuition for one my kids in just 4 or 5 days.    I would be cheering for many feet of snow here.

[snow_wizard]

I'm still at freezing here, but it's obvious Puget Sound will get shadowed this morning.  Could be a brief flurry though.

[snow_wizard]

Haha well believe it or not it kinda sucks going out and plowing snow for 60hrs. Some of the clients are customers from the late 70's believe it or not so i feel obligated.

 

From the late 70s?  Amazing!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

What's your dew point?

27

[TacomaWaWx]

I'm still at freezing here, but it's obvious Puget Sound will get shadowed this morning. Could be a brief flurry though.

did a brief flurry here in Tacoma but it’s stopped now, little taste of what’s to come possibly Monday

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

From the late 70s?  Amazing!

Condominium management company. Pretty cool to now text the man that my dad started the business with some 40 years later! He was 28 when he started with the company and i was 8 riding in the truck with my dad.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Been a long time since we had a low take the legendary track into north Oregon. Fwiw i still think around cannon beach for land fall.

[Geos]

Nice timing to have the radar out!

[snow_wizard]

Been a long time since we had a low take the legendary track into north Oregon. Fwiw i still think around cannon beach for land fall.

 

If it tracks far enough north this is one of the dream scenarios for my area.  I can't get over how much this looks like Dec 2005, but colder.  This definitely looks like a baroclinic situation.  No warm nose and screw zones with those.

[snow_wizard]

Nice timing to have the radar out!

 

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

If it tracks far enough north this is one of the dream scenarios for my area.  I can't get over how much this looks like Dec 2005, but colder.  This definitely looks like a baroclinic situation.  No warm nose and screw zones with those.

If the low takes the famous Astoria to just south of mt Raineer the entire puget sound will get clobbered.

[Esquimalt]

Ouch. Rain for Portland on the icon 12Z. Heavy snow for my area and the Puget Sound

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Icon sticking to a north solution but looks a bit south of it's 06z.

[Geos]

If the low takes the famous Astoria to just south of mt Raineer the entire puget sound will get clobbered.

What was the last storm that took that track?

[snow_wizard]

Yeah, the landfall is further north, but the low essentially ends up in the same spot moving east. This allows cold air to pour in from the NW and areas even south of the landfalling low turn back to snow. THIS is why I really want the GFS solution to verify, with the low tracking east it doesn't matter as much where it landfalls, because we stay in a cool/cold pattern longer. So really a variation of low placement still does not support anything the ICON or EURO shows.

 

No doubt.  I love the cold backwash on the back side of the low as they track east.  You can clearly see the 850mb temp drop on the 6z GFS as the low progresses eastward.  We may easily get a two day or more extension on this cold wave as the time frame narrows.  Already strong hinting of it in the 0z ECMWF and last couple of GFS runs.

[TT-SEA]

Icon sticking to a north solution but looks a bit south of it's 06z.

 

 

Way north of its 00Z run and that run was already well north of the other models.  

 

The 12Z run actually brings heavy rain up into the Seattle area by Monday afternoon.

[snow_wizard]

If the low takes the famous Astoria to just south of mt Raineer the entire puget sound will get clobbered.

 

That's a track that has almost refused to happen since I've lived here.  My area does very well when that happens.  Both ends of 1985 and the big Feb 1990 snow are just a couple of examples.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Icon sticking to a north solution but looks a bit south of it's 06z.

Yeah the 12z ICON trended South compared to its earlier 06z run.

[Geos]

That's a track that has almost refused to happen since I've lived here.  My area does very well when that happens.  Both ends of 1985 and the big Feb 1990 snow are just a couple of examples.

Sounds like that track is overdue!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Way north of its 00Z run and that run was already well north of the other models.

 

The 12Z run actually brings heavy rain up into the Seattle area by Monday afternoon.

Yeah pretty fun to watch and see what model is correct. I think the icon is the furthest north we will see of all the models. Cannon beach to Astoria i bet.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

That's a track that has almost refused to happen since I've lived here.  My area does very well when that happens.  Both ends of 1985 and the big Feb 1990 snow are just a couple of examples.

1996?

[TT-SEA]

Yeah pretty fun to watch and see what model is correct. I think the icon is the furthest north we will see of all the models. Cannon beach to Astoria i bet.

 

 

And the 12Z ICON brings in an even warmer and wetter system on Tuesday with rain all the way up to the border.  

[TacomaWaWx]

Lightly snowing in Tacoma for the past 15 minutes or so, no accumulation obviously

[TacomaWaWx]

[Requiem]

[Blizzard777]

Light snow in Fed way

Temp 36

Dew point 25

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

06z icon dumps about 14 inches on Seattle area.

[TT-SEA]

Doesn’t seem likely that portland and Seattle are gonna see snow, one of the other it looks like

 

 

Unlikely with this pattern at this time of year.

 

But there is probably a perfect track just south of Portland that would bring snow to Portland and to Seattle at the same time.  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Flurries on Bainbridge this morning. First flakes seen in over a week.

[Jesse]

No one posted last night but this is sure a change. Keeps us cold a lot longer. EPS/Euro trended that way we well.

 

[Requiem]

NAM is the model I’m really worried about. ICON actually trended south some ways.

[snow_wizard]

The South Sound gets crushed on the 12z NAM. Too bad it's the NAM.  I will say the low placement looks pretty ECMWF like though.  I get a foot if this is true.

[Requiem]

The South Sound gets crushed on the 12z NAM.  too bad it's the NAM.  I will say the low placement looks pretty ECMWF like though.  I get a foot if this is true.

It’s quite far north, I will say.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Gfs says fukk off icon!

[snow_wizard]

As for the ICON...it's so far out of whack with any other model I'm totally disregarding it for now.  Higher resolution is only as good as the programming behind it.  I still think a North Oregon Coast (or a bit south) landfall is pretty likely.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

As for the ICON...it's so far out of whack with any other model I'm totally disregarding it for now. Higher resolution is only as good as the programming behind it. I still think a North Oregon Coast (or a bit south) landfall is pretty likely.

Yeah, the ICON will likely keep trending South right up to the event. Still a few days out. I'm thinking landfall somewhere around the Central Oregon Coast.