February 2019 Weather Observations and Discussion Part 2

[ShawniganLake]

The ECMWF ensemble has made a huge shift to continued cold also. Pretty weird how it temporarily dropped the ball after performing so well for so long.

Seems like it was its SW cutoff bias causing issues

[joaqweri]

bottom line: if we get another occurence where PDX gets slammed with a foot while SEA gets no precip at all and chilly temps, i'll scream till my vocal cords rot.

[ShawniganLake]

[Requiem]

NAM looks to stay put, or actually go a smidgen north.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nam makes landfall at neah bay.

 

Made me look...lol

[TT-SEA]

bottom line: if we get another occurence where PDX gets slammed with a foot while SEA gets no precip at all and chilly temps, i'll scream till my vocal cords rot.

 

The second part is looking more and more likely with the main event.    Not sure how much Portland will get though.  

 

Any snow Seattle gets this week will probably be fleeting with temps in the 39-45 degree range on most days.   Way below normal obviously... but not too good for keeping snow on the ground for long.    

[Esquimalt]

Haha. Nice troll. We wish.

Joking aside, the nam removed the 16 cm of snow here it was showing thru 5 am tmrw

[ShawniganLake]

Joking aside, the nam removed the 16 cm of snow here it was showing thru 5 am tmrw

Haha. Yea. Not happening.

[Jesse]

Yes longest February streak in the airport era.

 

Downtown had a February with a high of only 48 in the 1890s.

PDX has only existed in the airport era, so yeah.

[Jesse]

bottom line: if we get another occurence where PDX gets slammed with a foot while SEA gets no precip at all and chilly temps, i'll scream till my vocal cords rot.

Hasn’t this been SEA’s snowiest Feb on record?

[Bryant]

The pathetic thing is that Portland watched Seattle

get buried two weeks ago without whining much at all, basically just watching it unfold and liking your snow posts. And now some of you up there will probably b*tch every step of the way for this entire event and not be happy for us at all. Kind of kills the mood here.

You mean like 2016-2017, only the inverse?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Winds have switched from SW to NE at Spokane. North wind down to Pasco and upper 20s. South wind Pendleton and 40.

[Perturbed Member]

Nothing too different here

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

PDX has only existed in the airport era, so yeah.

 

It is interesting that Salem's records have only been taken at McNary Field since 1928, but they include the data from the original station about 2-3 miles away in the period of record. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nothing too different here

 

 

I

 

Nothing too different here

 

 

It takes a NE jog from its Cape Blanco landfall. That could warm nose EUG for a few hours, but points north/metro would see more precip as the low moves closer.

[joaqweri]

Hasn’t this been SEA’s snowiest Feb on record?

yeah, the airport's snowiest feb. the airport is miles south of the city itself. the most i've had on the ground at once this month is 6", i've seen roughly a foot in total. seatac has seen 20".

[Jesse]

yeah, the airport's snowiest feb. the airport is miles south of the city itself. the most i've had on the ground at once this month is 6", i've seen roughly a foot in total. seatac has seen 20".

Better start screaming then.

[Guest Sounder]

The pathetic thing is that Portland watched Seattle

get buried two weeks ago without whining much at all, basically just watching it unfold and liking your snow posts. And now some of you up there will probably b*tch every step of the way for this entire event and not be happy for us at all. Kind of kills the mood here.

I was in Portland while Seattle got dumped on a few weeks ago and now I'll be in Seattle while Portland gets buried, and I still find all the bitching from the Western WA posters on here nauseating with this one. Portland had a pretty rough go of it with the last event and yet the SW WA/OR posters here were far less annoying and whiny than the Seattle posters are being this time. Seattle just had one of the most historic periods of cold and snow in decades, they have no room to whine about Portland getting a few wet inches that's going to melt right away.

[Perturbed Member]

I

 

 

It takes a NE jog from its Cape Blanco landfall. That could warm nose EUG for a few hours, but points north/metro would see more precip as the low moves closer.

 

Yeah seems a hair more north and a bit more aggressive in the NE movement but fairly subtle. We're probably past the point of the models making drastic changes or I hope.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Nothing too different here

 

Right where we want to be 36-48 hours away. Based on past history, we should see a slight trend North right up to the finish line.

[FroYoBro]

NAM looks great for Portland snow. 

[Deweydog]

Snocial justice warriors!!!

[Requiem]

I was in Portland while Seattle got dumped on a few weeks ago and now I'll be in Seattle while Portland gets buried, and I still find all the bitching from the Western WA posters on here nauseating with this one. Portland had a pretty rough go of it with the last event and yet the SW WA/OR posters here were far less annoying and whiny than the Seattle posters are being this time. Seattle just had one of the most historic periods of cold and snow in decades, they have no room to whine about Portland getting a few wet inches that's going to melt right away.

True, this isn’t a “frozen metro for a week” type of deal. It’s wet and heavy snow that will stick around for a day or two at most. I’m still very excited though!

[Jesse]

Snocial justice warriors!!!

Snociopaths!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

NAM snow totals slightly higher SLE, PDX, much higher for EUG.

 

[Jesse]

It is interesting that Salem's records have only been taken at McNary Field since 1928, but they include the data from the original station about 2-3 miles away in the period of record.

Probably less of a difference between PDX which was basically a rural location for many years and downtown Portland.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3K NAM now showing a possible dusting tomorrow morning down to about 500'. 

[Requiem]

Should I be excited for at least an inch or two here? Is it too early?

[FroYoBro]

Should I be excited for at least an inch or two here? Is it too early?

 

I think it is looking likely at this point. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3K NAM gives EUG 10" between 7p tomorrow night 7a Monday morning. 

[snow_wizard]

Winds have switched from SW to NE at Spokane. North wind down to Pasco and upper 20s. South wind Pendleton and 40.

 

Yup.  The Arctic front is progressing nicely.  Once here we will be in cold continental air until further notice.

 

Meanwhile we have already hit the convective temperature here and the sky is darkening.

[snow_wizard]

Should I be excited for at least an inch or two here? Is it too early?

 

Yes. No.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 2nd low next week is WAY further south on the NAM, following the GFS.

[Jesse]

Yup. The Arctic front is progressing nicely. Once here we will be in cold continental air until further notice.

 

Meanwhile we have already hit the convective temperature here and the sky is darkening.

Yup, just started getting a downpour here. Wasn’t expecting it since the radar is down. Temp got up to 43 earlier and is now back down to 41.

[snow_wizard]

True, this isn’t a “frozen metro for a week” type of deal. It’s wet and heavy snow that will stick around for a day or two at most. I’m still very excited though!

 

I think you're underestimating this.  All models show it being cold all of next week now.  The days will briefly "warm" to well above freezing, but the nights will be cold and the number of hours per day below freezing will be high.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Up to 15 days now with at least some snow cover here, mostly just leftover piles and larger patches along north facing slopes. Cold upper air masses become progressively more and more boring at this time of year without any precipitation. We have a good shot at pulling off normal early January weather this next week, which is hardly exciting. I'd still take any snow we can get, but if it's not going to happen I'm rooting for a swift start to spring and perhaps some more active rainy weather.

 

Enjoy the big stuff down in OR, what's shown there is easily comparable to the stuff we had up here on the 11th, perhaps with a drier air mass to follow.

[Deweydog]

Should I be excited for at least an inch or two here? Is it too early?

Be honest, little nugget. You already are.

[Requiem]

Be honest, little nugget. You already are.

Guilty as charged!

[Jesse]

Be honest, little nugget. You already are.

Any thoughts on BGSD’s Monday call?

[SilverFallsAndrew]