February 2019 Weather Observations and Discussion Part 2

[Jesse]

Sort of obvious that the blocking is not going anywhere no matter what any model shows. I am now wondering if Alaska will ever have a storm again.

Yeah, getting pretty excited at the prospects of a cold and wet spring here.

[Jesse]

I’m hoping the southward trend has ended. We should be cold enough for snow tonight, just a question of whether precipitation gets here.

I will just say this. I would rather be in a situation where the models are missing us to the south leading up to an event rather than to the north. Since a bust in our favor is a lot more likely with the former.

[Requiem]

I will just say this. I would rather be in a situation where the models are missing us to the south leading up to an event rather than to the north. Since a bust in our favor is a lot more likely with the former.

Ja. Weagle’s write-up is also very informative this morning, taking into account some past trends and surface observations.

 

“Perhaps of more importance for the majority of the population in our

forecast area is how the period from tonight through Monday evening

evolves. East winds are already developing through the Columbia Gorge

and although they may ease a little this afternoon, they are expected

to return even stronger tonight and Monday morning. Confidence is

increasing that temperatures will be cold enough for snow north of

the frontal zone as it lifts slowly northward tonight and early

Monday. Most 00z models keep the frontal zone further south than

prior runs as another weak low develops offshore and moves onshore

somewhere on the central or southern Oregon Coast. The 00z GFS,

reinforced by its 06z run, keep the front so far south that the PDX

metro area would barely receive any precipitation Monday while Salem

and Eugene deal with the potential for a major snow event. However,

the 00z ECMWF is further north (albeit south of earlier runs),

certainly keeping anywhere south of Kelso and Astoria in play for

significant snow. Looking further into the 00z GEFS and ECMWF

ensembles, there remains significant support for a track well north

of the one shown by the 00z deterministic GFS, with some members

still even north of the 00z ECMWF track. Believe that much of the

uncertainty lies in whether strong northern stream energy pushing

southward into the Pacific from the Yukon can interact and phase with

a progressive shortwave now near 38N/140W. The ECMWF has been

initializing the southern shortwave better than the GFS for the past

few model cycles, and based on latest water vapor imagery it appears

doubtful that the southern shortwave will be completely left behind

by the slow-moving upper trough off the WA coast. Thus I am still

leaning toward the more northern solutions for the front and low

track, as any phasing between northern and southern systems would

likely lead to a stronger (but still modest) low than depicted by the

00z GFS... and stronger lows tend to curl further north than most

models suggest. ”

[epiceast]

I will just say this. I would rather be in a situation where the models are missing us to the south leading up to an event rather than to the north. Since a bust in our favor is a lot more likely with the former.CW

I think this is the second time models trended a snowstorm this far south in a decade. Last one caused a lot of unhappy SEA CWA posters, but turned out alright for PDX.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

12Z UKMET total precipitation through Sunday 10pm and Monday 10pm. To get the precipitation that falls between Sunday 10pm to Monday 10pm, subtract from the two. Looks like around 0.5 to 0.6 falls around PDX during that time frame. Not bad with more precipitation just to the south. If the heavier stuff can reach further up North than we're going to do good. As it stands not bad for some accumulations.

 

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, getting pretty excited at the prospects of a cold and wet spring here.

 

Not sure about that all.  

 

Wave lengths will eventually change as we move towards the warm season and if it remains blocky then it could very well be just the opposite.

 

We have not had really persistent precipitation for months even up here... which seems to makes sense since everything slows down during low solar periods.  

 

I think it might end up being a big benefit to get this near record setting, long duration block and western troughing in February and maybe March.     

[Prairiedog]

La Pine Or.

Brothers place

We have friends that sold their place here and now live on property they have (cabin) on the Deschutes R. in La Pine.  They're looking to get pummeled tonight into tomorrow.  Similar pics I got from them as well. 

[Jesse]

Not sure about that all.

 

Wave lengths will eventually change as we move towards the warm season and if it remains blocky then it could very well be just the opposite.

 

We have not had really persistent precipitation for months even up here... which seems to makes sense since it seems like everything slows down during low solar.

 

I think it might end up being a big benefit to get this near record setting long duration block and western troughing in February and maybe March.

And tomorrow’s storm will slam Puget Sound and the EPS is never wrong.

[MossMan]

[Requiem]

12Z UKMET total precipitation through Sunday 10pm and Monday 10pm. To get the precipitation that falls between Sunday 10pm to Monday 10pm, subtract from the two. Looks like around 0.5 to 0.6 falls around PDX during that time frame. Not bad with more precipitation just to the south. If the heavier stuff can reach further up North than we're going to do good. As it stands not bad for some accumulations.

 

us_model-en-087-0_modgbr_2019022412_18_484_220.png us_model-en-087-0_modgbr_2019022412_42_484_220.png

Not giving up on this one yet, and looks like you aren’t either! I’m glad

[Requiem]

I will also add that the Pacific Analysis map shows this low at 1004 MB, stronger than the GFS or NAM has at this time.

 

https://ocean.weather.gov/P_sfc_full_ocean_color.png

[TT-SEA]

And tomorrow’s storm will trend way north and the EPS is never wrong.

 

Yep.    And you said it was very unlikely to turn cold in February during a Nino.  

 

This block has been insane.    I am glad it happened in February and maybe March.    I doubt it stays in the same place until July.   But blocking is a very good bet during low solar and its going to continue.  I have been saying that for a long time.   I like the odds of nice weather as we go into the warm season.   I don't see an active storm track and persistent rain this spring and summer.    

[MossMan]

Balmy 40 degrees and cloudy at the Lowe’s parking lot in Smokey Point.

[Jesse]

Yep. And you said it was very unlikely to turn cold in February during a Nino.

 

Because it generally is. That’s an easy call based on past history. And I didn’t post about it 28 times a day and try to cram it down everyone’s throat who disagreed, and STILL end up being wrong. Take notes.

[TT-SEA]

Sun is shining here...

 

[Prairiedog]

Yep.    And you said it was very unlikely to turn cold in February during a Nino.  

 

This block has been insane.    I am glad it happened in February and maybe March.    I doubt it stays in the same place until July.   But blocking is a very good bet during low solar and its going to continue.  I have been saying that for a long time.   I like the odds of nice weather as we go into the warm season.   I don't see an active storm track and persistent rain this spring and summer.    

That would also mean a slower more even snow melt and run off for the rivers.  That's good for me as a salmon and steelhead fisherman, it's good for irrigation, river levels for smolt moving down the Columbia and other tribs.  Don't know how that might help during the  fire season. 

[snow_wizard]

Looks like the ECMWF blew it on precip amounts for this morning.  That model has really lost some of my respect over the past few days.  Looks like something is about to hit my area so we'll see.

 

At any rate...there is some serious cold air in play with this Arctic front that is nearing the area.  Prince George dropped to -20 earlier this morning and Williams Lake is currently at 1.  The NWS is going for temps in the 8 to 11 degrees below normal range in the coming days.  About what I have been guessing.

[Jesse]

Looks like the ECMWF blew it on precip amounts for this morning. That model has really lost some of my respect over the past few days. Looks like something is about to hit my area so we'll see.

 

At any rate...there is some serious cold air in play with this Arctic front that is nearing the area. Prince George dropped to -20 earlier this morning and Williams Lake is currently at 1. The NWS is going for temps in the 8 to 11 degrees below normal range in the coming days. About what I have been guessing.

Gonna get COLD the next several days. Hopefully many of us can go into it with at least a little snow.

[TT-SEA]

FWIW... total snow through Wednesday evening per the WRF.

 

Oregon Cascades!  

 

 

 

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Not giving up on this one yet, and looks like you aren’t either! I’m glad

I'm not. When I take a look back at 2-19-93,1-1-04, 2-6-14 and 1-10-17, more moisture came in than expected. Hopefully 2-25-19 will do the same.

[Requiem]

I'm not. When I take a look back at 2-19-93,1-1-04, 2-6-14 and 1-10-17, more moisture came in than expected. Hopefully 2-25-19 will do the same.

One must also remember that 1/1/04 (for sure) and 1/10/17 (possibly?) were even further south than the southernmost extent of this one (in terms of model runs). Add in the fact that 12Z runs showed promising trends and that the low is stronger than currently modeled, we have a recipe for something alright.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I will also add that the Pacific Analysis map shows this low at 1004 MB, stronger than the GFS or NAM has at this time.

 

https://ocean.weather.gov/P_sfc_full_ocean_color.png

Nice observation! Hopefully it will strengthen more than expected and make landfall north of Cape Blanco.

[Requiem]

Nice observation! Hopefully it will strengthen more than expected and make landfall north of Cape Blanco.

I know Weagle (though a wonderful forecaster) gets a bit overexcited sometimes, but his rationale of strengthening lows curving further north in regards to this system is very relevant.

[Prairiedog]

Gonna get COLD the next several days. Hopefully many of us can go into it with at least a little snow.

I haven't looked today but the 850's looked -8 or maybe colder.  I think I saw something yesterday that Andrew posted that showed -11?  That would be really cold this late in the season. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

It overdid precip for whole region but i live in South Hill and its 1-2 inches. 

Looks like the ECMWF blew it on precip amounts for this morning.  That model has really lost some of my respect over the past few days.  Looks like something is about to hit my area so we'll see.

 

At any rate...there is some serious cold air in play with this Arctic front that is nearing the area.  Prince George dropped to -20 earlier this morning and Williams Lake is currently at 1.  The NWS is going for temps in the 8 to 11 degrees below normal range in the coming days.  About what I have been guessing.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

One must also remember that 1/1/04 (for sure) and 1/10/17 (possibly?) were even further south than the southernmost extent of this one (in terms of model runs). Add in the fact that 12Z runs showed promising trends and that the low is stronger than currently modeled, we have a recipe for something alright.

Yeah, you're right. Hopefully the 12Z EURO will show more moisture making its way north compared to last night.

[snow_wizard]

Well I'll be dipped.  Some really impressive stuff on the radar about to hit my area.  Looks like a band might be setting up on the outer edge of the continental air that has seeped in here.  My dp is below freezing now so this might get interesting.

[snow_wizard]

FWIW... total snow through Wednesday evening per the WRF.

 

Oregon Cascades!  

 

 

 

 

 

Talk about nuclear.  Sheesh!

[Requiem]

Well I'll be dipped. Some really impressive stuff on the radar about to hit my area. Looks like a band might be setting up on the outer edge of the continental air that has seeped in here. My dp is below freezing now so this might get interesting.

Fingers crossed, hope it gets crazy!

[Prairiedog]

I know Weagle (though a wonderful forecaster) gets a bit overexcited sometimes, but his rationale of strengthening lows curving further north in regards to this system is very relevant.

"Overly excited"?  You're kidding I hope.  That would mean he's putting out forecasts that are biased and emotional.  Where do you come up with this kind of stuff? 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Looks like ec is south lol. But it also has the low at 1014 at zero hr and that is not correct.

[The Swamp]

Everything is white in the swamp now.

[snow_wizard]

The sky is getting really dark here now.  Maybe...just maybe.

[snow_wizard]

Everything is white in the swamp now.

 

In the swamp? 

[TacomaWaWx]

The sky is getting really dark here now. Maybe...just maybe.

same here, lots of activity in south sound this morning

[Requiem]

[TT-SEA]

Early tomorrow morning... slight shift south.

 

[overcast]

Dumping on the north tip of South Hill Puyallup for 45 min. An inch already. Surprised this little band has produced so well. The most beautiful picturesque flakes of the season.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Looks like ec is south lol. But it also has the low at 1014 at zero hr and that is not correct.

Yeah that's a bad initialization.

[snow_wizard]

Just started snowing here.  The fact the swamp is getting sticking snow makes me very hopeful.  This is probably the driest snow I've seen at 37 degrees.  A sure sign there will be significant evaporative cooling.