jcwxguy Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 Ukie Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 UkieSlight shift north and west. Better for us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 Euro with a 993mb SLP in NE Missouri/SE Iowa at HR 72. Very similar to the previous run, I believe. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 2mb stronger at hr 69 vs 18z Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ToastedRavs Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 Euro is my hero. And I am sticking with it 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 Euro looks to hold serve 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 Euro so far 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clintbeed1993 Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 This latest graphic from NWS Hastings is an absolute joke. Can someone please explain to me HOW that is possible? They are completely discounting the system for Central Nebraska and there is wayyy too much model discrepancy for that. I'm sure there will be a massive circular snow hole across the middle of the state as shown below 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 OAX going with Euro solution- And speaking of which, model disagreement continues with both the 00Z NAM and Canadian remaining the southern track solutions with the GFS much farther north, while the EC is somewhere in-between. WPC wanted to go more toward a ECMWF solution and so have followed that guidance to some degree with this forecast issuance, although forecaster confidence is quite low still at this point. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 DMX admits it will basically come down to a now forecast - that the science is not there yet- but says the GFS is an outlier and prudent to go with the Euro- Event 2 (Saturday PM-Sunday Strong Winds + Snow)...Confidence very high in the occurrence of a winter storm. Allmodel solutions have had this feature for the past few days... soam certain that it will occur. The significant question is wherewill it occur? Bottom line up front, location is going to be ahugely important factor of impacts. There will likely be a verytight gradient between the cold, snowy northwestern side of thelow, and the warmer, rainy southeastern side of the storm. It ispossible that one location may receive 1 inch of rain, andliterally 25 miles to the northwest, there may be 10 inches ofsnow/blowing snow. Being honest, near this narrow zone along thesnow/wintry mix/rain line, there are going to be some forecastmisses in this event. As a science, we do not yet have theprecision + confidence to pinpoint the exact location gradientwhere the 10 inches of snow may fall vs the 1 inch of rain. Thisgradient will shift slightly with each set of model runs betweennow and Saturday... Do to be near the gradient and jump on asingle solution and say "look it says 10 inches of snow at myhouse" may not be the best idea as it may change to "now it says 1inch of rain at my house" 6 hours later and so on. Where valuecan be added is following model solution trends...For model trends, the GFS has been trending slightly slower andstronger with this system...inching its location to the west at 00zSun for the past few model runs. The 00z Thu operational GFS hasbecome somewhat of a westerly outlier. The ECMWF has mainly held itsground with a faster/more east, slightly weaker system. TheCanadian has hitched to the ECMWF, with the NAM now fallingsomewhere near the middle of all solutions. At this time, reallydifficult to prognosticate which model is the "best". The 00z ThuECMWF strongly intensifies this system over the Great LakesRegion... dropping it to 972mb by 18z Sun... which would meet the"technical" definition of bombogenesis as the ECMWF has it slatedto be at 996mb by 18z Sat. For such a strengthening system, themore easterly ECMWF would have effects amplified further fromadditional westward tilt with height...whereas the GFS is morevertically stacked through Iowa. Could see a lean towards theECMWF camp being prudent. Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 6z NAM shifts another 50 miles or so SE. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 Looks like aKC special Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 21, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 The 00z EPS is a touch SE across the Plains with the heaviest snow band that includes the entire state of NE, while the GEFS are farther NW. The track of the ULL on the 00z Euro is directly over KC which isn't really ideal to be in the heaviest snows but close enough that it's still in the game. Based off what I'm seeing, all of NE into western half of IA, all of S MN into W WI are in the best position as it stands now. There will likely be some minor shifts but I don't foresee anything drastic. This system is forecast to rapidly intensify and go neg tilt right across KS as it tracks through N/MO/IA/WI and there will likely be a situation where those closest to the low may experience a rapid transition from RN to SN. Will this be the first actual storm that Bombs out??? The 00z Euro takes a 1004mb down in the TX Panhandle and drops it down to a 976mb low in the upper GL's! That's almost 30mb in 24 hours...impressive storm system on the table and those in the vicinity of this beast are pretty fortunate to experience this one. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 21, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 00z Euro Control... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 looks like I'll have to spend an extra night snowed in up nort! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feddman Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 Question for Tom. I live in Omaha. I know you follow the Lrc. Leak posted yesterday he thinks this will be further south than what is trending now. It gave St.Louis a blizzard in cycle 1 and K.C. snow in cycle 2. Maybe the nam is on to something? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 21, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 Question for Tom. I live in Omaha. I know you follow the Lrc. Leak posted yesterday he thinks this will be further south than what is trending now. It gave St.Louis a blizzard in cycle 1 and K.C. snow in cycle 2. Maybe the nam is on to something?Good question and welcome! I did read his blog yesterday and he noted his suspicion that models would trend farther south, although, I'm not really buying this storm tracking that much far south. I do think KC is still in the picture to get snow out of this bc this storm will be so strong that the defo band will hug the ULL nice and tight. I think the GFS will cave towards the Euro and will eventually come around to showing more snow across OMA/LNK. This is going to be a very dynamic storm system and I fully expect it to become a blizzard. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 It really is too bad that the models supporting snow around here are the NAM & CMC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 21, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 06z Euro...this storm bombs out from a 993mb storm in KS to a 969mb monster across the U.P.! Insane rapid intensification as it cross over IA/WI as bombogenesis is the result. Edit: This run is showing sustained 40-45mph winds across IA into S MN....amazing potential here... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 DMX's thoughts - though I expect a NW shift as shown with the 06 Euro- the storm is too dynamic not to shift NW. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 06z Euro...this storm bombs out from a 993mb storm in KS to a 969mb monster across the U.P.! Insane rapid intensification as it cross over IA/WI as bombogenesis is the result. Edit: This run is showing sustained 40-45mph winds across IA into S MN....amazing potential here... You should see the crappy GFS at HR 240. 960mb bomb just east of Boston lol. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 21, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 You should see the crappy GFS at HR 240. 960mb bomb just east of Boston lol. IMO, I think next month will feature very strong storms. This weekends storm is just the beginning of a wild 2-4 weeks of winter. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stacsh Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 IMO, I think next month will feature very strong storms. This weekends storm is just the beginning of a wild 2-4 weeks of winter. I agree, March coming in like a lion. But that run was ridiculous. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 21, 2019 Author Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 I agree, March coming in like a lion. But that run was ridiculous.“Polar Vortex” Part 2...in theatres near you to open March.... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 4-6” of snow and 40mph winds on a Saturday/Sunday would be fun. My guess is the NAM changes course at some point today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 4-6” of snow and 40mph winds on a Saturday/Sunday would be fun. My guess is the NAM changes course at some point today.NAM looks farther north with the low at hour 54 compared to the 06z run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 NAM looks farther north with the low at hour 54 compared to the 06z run.Yep north and a few ticks stronger compared to 0z and 6z. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 Nam is definitely further north and a touch stronger. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 Yep north and a few ticks stronger compared to 0z and 6z.Still misses me to the south. Very narrow snow shield, you'd expect it to be larger and spread north. NWS Hastings says NAM is too far south and has basically thrown it out. They are siding more with the Euro. As always, there will be those happy and disappointed on the forums with the eventual track. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FarmerRick Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 Can someone post the latest Euro zoomed in on Nebraska please? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 The recent theme is stronger and ticking NW. Not too surprising, and shouldn’t be surprised when more changes occur in the next 48 hours. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 The recent theme is stronger and ticking NW. Not too surprising, and shouldn’t be surprised when more changes occur in the next 48 hours.I agree. I believe that is what the NWS is thinking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 The recent theme is stronger and ticking NW. Not too surprising, and shouldn’t be surprised when more changes occur in the next 48 hours.As you quietly twiddle your thumbs and realize its your winter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 As you quietly twiddle your thumbs and realize its your winterThis is your blizzard. I’ll take the scraps. Not expecting a direct hit here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 D**n, NAM went north. Definitely wasn’t expecting that. *sarcasm font* 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 Though the NAM now has me basically in the bullseye; it's too big of a jump not to stop. I think this evolves into a North East NE - NW IA - SW MN / W Central MN Blizzard with the Low tracking over or just E of the Twin Cities. My .02 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 Looks like the "vaunted" ICON has also ticked north a little. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 Man, this will kick off some really strong winds IMBY on Sunday, along w thunderstorms Saturday evening, which could be strong to locally severe. Yikes...some wild weather coming. Power outages are a possibility and trees being knocked down could also occur. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 If it’s going to be all rain around here, I wish it’d go so far north that it’d bring me some storms at least. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted February 21, 2019 Report Share Posted February 21, 2019 Can someone post the latest Euro zoomed in on Nebraska please? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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