March 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW

[Jesse]

Yeah. I looked a little further back - only the 2nd time since 1976 in March. The other of course 1989.

Nice. And the coldest air mass is yet to come. Although it’s possible they will have a harder time decoupling the next few mornings. Very cool to see a new March low temp benchmark set for this century regardless.

[TT-SEA]

Holy moly the Euro looks crazy next week. A solid Gorge driven event for Portland would really put a nice bow on this whole thing. Especially so historically late in the season.

This constant talk of "bows" is so silly. Like you even know when it will end. We were saying that 2 weeks ago and yet here we are.

 

Nature does not give a sh*t about bows anyways.

[Jesse]

This constant talk of "bows" is so silly. Like you even know when it will end. We were saying that 2 weeks ago and yet here we are.

 

Nature does not give a sh*t about bows anyways.

Good one! People following historic weather stats do though. There has been some good discussion on those this morning. Let’s not water it down with bickering.

[GHweatherChris]

Good lord

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This constant talk of "bows" is so silly. Like you even know when it will end. We were saying that 2 weeks ago and yet here we are.

Nature does not give a sh*t about bows anyways.

What about a rainbow?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I'm much more excited about this cold weather than I would be some snow. What we are experiencing is rare, it is only right to appreciate it. 

[TT-SEA]

What about a rainbow?

Much better.

[Jesse]

38 here after a low of 24. The wind is picking up now, feels downright cold out.

[wx_statman]

Nice. And the coldest air mass is yet to come. Although it’s possible they will have a harder time decoupling the next few mornings. Very cool to see a new March low temp benchmark set for this century regardless.

 

Might as well knock off that low hanging fruit. We finally got the right pattern. 

[Jesse]

I'm much more excited about this cold weather than I would be some snow. What we are experiencing is rare, it is only right to appreciate it.

I’m sure the fact that you already have 20” on the ground has nothing to do with that.

[wx_statman]

This constant talk of "bows" is so silly. Like you even know when it will end. We were saying that 2 weeks ago and yet here we are.

 

Nature does not give a sh*t about bows anyways.

 

I was thinking of buying a bowtie. Thoughts?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I’m sure the fact that you already have 20” on the ground has nothing to do with that.

 

Well yeah...I hope there is an overrunning event next week like the EURO shows. Pretty common to get snow here in March, but always special to see the valley get it. 

[Front Ranger]

Spotted a couple monthly record lows this morning:

 

9 at Pelton Dam, previously 10 on 3/1/1993

 

-37 at Goldbutte, MT, previously -35 on 3/8/1951

 

I'm trying to think of the last period that would rival the past 5 weeks for record cold and cold anomalies across the CONUS. What do you think? Maybe 1996...but this seems like the severe cold has been more sustained over a larger area.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Interesting to see Troutdale gusting to 36mph, but no east wind at PDX yet. Temps steady in The Dalles and Pendleton. 

[Jesse]

Interesting to see Troutdale gusting to 36mph, but no east wind at PDX yet. Temps steady in The Dalles and Pendleton.

 

East winds are picking up here. Maybe 20-25mph atm.

 

A perfect setup for EXTREME LOWS in the Portland metro with this pattern would be an east wind that blows due to daytime mixing then backs off to the mouth of the Gorge overnight.

[snow_wizard]

Yes, my gut feeling is a cooler and more active spring than we’ve seen in several years. We’re due. But I am wrong all the time so it isn’t really a big deal either way.

 

I could see a 1949 or 1951 type spring also.  We are incredibly due for one like that. 

 

My number one wish at this time is to have no El Nino next winter.  Even though things worked out well with this one that would make it a second year Nino which is not good.  Past history is on our side for neutral or cold ENSO next winter for a couple of reasons.

 

1. We just had a major multi year Nino not too long ago.

2. A multi year Nino at solar minimum would be unheard of.

 

Perhaps the most surprising thing about February is we had all of that cold weather while an ongoing raging WWB was happening in the Equatorial Pacific.  Mother nature did something big to over ride that!

[wx_statman]

I'm trying to think of the last period that would rival the past 5 weeks for record cold and cold anomalies across the CONUS. What do you think? Maybe 1996...but this seems like the severe cold has been more sustained over a larger area.

 

Yeah, that's a tough one. The stretch from Dec 2008 to Jan 2009 is also a good one, but not quite like what we're seeing now. Might have to go back to 1978-79?

[MossMan]

I was thinking of buying a bowtie. Thoughts?

Silverado. 4wd for the continued harsh winters coming up.

[TT-SEA]

I could see a 1949 or 1951 type spring also.  We are incredibly due for one like that. 

 

My number one wish at this time is to have no El Nino next winter.  Even though things worked out well with this one that would make it a second year Nino which is not good.  Past history is on our side for neutral or cold ENSO next winter for a couple of reasons.

 

1. We just had a major multi year Nino not too long ago.

2. A multi year Nino at solar minimum would be unheard of.

 

Perhaps the most surprising thing about February is we had all of that cold weather while an ongoing raging WWB was happening in the Equatorial Pacific.  Mother nature did something big to over ride that!

 

 

I would really like a spring like 1949 or 1951. 

 

Those were not wet springs... lots of dry, sunny periods with warm daytime temps.  

 

And the summer of 1951 was incredible too... it rained on only 8 days here the entire JJA period.  

[Jesse]

I like turtles.

[GHweatherChris]

I like turtles.

Not if Tim disagrees

[Jesse]

Just had a chance to look at the full 12z Euro. What a fabulous run. Really nice mix of dry arctic cold and cold maritime air masses. Great to see in March. Reminds me of something out of the 1950s.

 

Still pretty much no meaningful warm up in sight. PDX should see its sub-50 stretch extend though at least the first week of the month at this rate.

[TT-SEA]

Not if Tim disagrees

 

 

Luckily... I do like turtles as well.

[Jesse]

[snow_wizard]

Somebody was asking about how to easily compare what is happening to past events.  This site is amazing for that.  You can compare monthly data for the entire country, an individual state, a climate division, a city, etc with data back to 1895.  It takes some playing around to realize the full potential of the site.

 

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/national/time-series

[TT-SEA]

Just had a chance to look at the full 12z Euro. What a fabulous run. Really nice mix of dry arctic cold and cold maritime air masses. Great to see in March. Reminds me of something out of the 1950s.

 

 

Some rain and temps around 50 on days 8 and 9... that would be a nice change.     

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I would really like a spring like 1949 or 1951. 

 

Those were not wet springs... lots of dry, sunny periods with warm daytime temps.  

 

And the summer of 1951 was incredible too... it rained on only 8 days here the entire JJA period.  

 

March 1951 was a bit next level here. Aside from the snow it had a monthly average high/low of 47/27.

[van city]

EPS... Tim???

[TT-SEA]

March 1951 was a bit next level here. Aside from the snow it had a monthly average high/low of 47/27.

 

April 1951 was incredible around here... rained on 4 days.

 

Might have been the sunniest April in history here.   Huge diurnal swings... lots of 70s/30s type days.  

[TT-SEA]

EPS... Tim???

 

 

It does not finish until about 12:20.

[Jesse]

EPS... Tim???

You’ll have to wait until it starts showing warmth in the 10-15 day range again. Could be awhile.

[TT-SEA]

You’ll have to wait until it starts showing warmth in the 10-15 day range again. Could be awhile.

 

 

Actually showing ridging right now in that period.   The 00Z run showed it and the 12Z run is about the same so far.    I just need to see about 5 more runs to believe it at this point.  

[TT-SEA]

You’ll have to wait until it starts showing warmth in the 10-15 day range again. Could be awhile.

 

Here is the middle of the 10-15 day period on the 12Z run.

 

[Jesse]

Less of a wait than I thought!

[El_Nina]

Less of a wait than I thought!

Ultimately the background state wins.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

And snow

 

Here's what the 12Z EURO shows for Wednesday. Looks like moisture comes up from the South bringing ice to the Southern Willamette Valley. Still too dry up around PDX with the East winds eating all the moisture. But then moderate snow by the afternoon.

 

[TT-SEA]

Our snow damage... it was like this when we got back from Hawaii. Appears that snow slid off the roof and took it out.

 

[Jesse]

Ultimately the background state wins.

Hopefully we’ve moved on from that background state, at least temporarily.

[Jesse]

East wind has surfaced at PDX with gusts 25-30 mph. Temp has also shot up to 46, but with the east wind in control now I picture them only adding a few degrees to that. Probably somewhere in the 48-ish range today.

[van city]

Tim, you should write a book on how to achieve 40 000 post on a weather forum.

 

Remarkable achievement and dedication.

 

Congrats Man, you should have a special status on this weather forum.