March 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF showed that tomorrow would be a little warmer than today and Tuesday would be a little warmer again.  

 

47 at SEA today... probably upper 40s the next 2 days as well.  

[MossMan]

I’m starting to sense that Tim might be ready for a warm up.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

42 here. 10 degree temp gradient between here and PDX.

[TT-SEA]

I’m starting to sense that Tim might be ready for a warm up.

55-degree sideways rain with a dewpoint in the low 50s would be lovely... maybe even for a week.

[Omegaraptor]

I’m starting to sense that Tim might be ready for a warm up.

I am too. Low 40s in March is ridiculous.

 

This sunshine has been a tease. “Oh look, it’s sunny and beautiful, too bad it’s too cold!”

[High Desert Mat?]

Pu$$ies.

[MossMan]

55-degree sideways rain with a dewpoint in the low 50s would be lovely... maybe even for a week.

I am enjoying the dryness, what a wonderful weekend. Now let’s crank it up to the 70’s!

Oh and I started the mower up for the first time in two months...need to start servicing deck and getting everything ready!

[High Desert Mat?]

I too, am ready for a warm up. Now 14 and may get up to 20 tomorrow. No fun when you work outside in it. Timesque!!!!!!

[Omegaraptor]

Combining the low temperatures, the Phoenix-like humidity, and the strong east winds, it’s just plain uncomfortable. I don’t care if it’s sunny. Sunshine is overrated. Give me 60, calm, and overcast (even with drizzle) any day over this.

[Deweydog]

I’m starting to sense that Tim might be ready for a warm up.

It’s been a pretty steady diet of not so subtle hints.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Still decently warm here during the day getting into the upper 40s. Chilly March weather but not quite cold. We scored bigly with the snow last week though. Crazy it all fell with temps right at or slightly above freezing with DPs in the 20s.

[TT-SEA]

Still decently warm here during the day getting into the upper 40s. Chilly March weather but not quite cold. We scored bigly with the snow last week though. Crazy it all fell with temps right at or slightly above freezing with DPs in the 20s.

 

 

Yeah... it has been quite pleasant during the day for the last 4 days with all the sun.     I was expecting more wind today.  

 

But its not a good scenario for melting off the rest of the snow quickly.  

[Deweydog]

Down to 27/5 at Larch.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Impressive 500mb anomaly map for February. We were helped greatly by the ridge bridge extending to Greenland. It helped compensate for the big + anom over the GOA being further south than it would normally be in our great months.

 

Yeah, good point about the ridge bridge or horseshoe type pattern locking the cold air in place even with the GOA Blocking being a bit South of where our sweet spot is. Helped keep the sustained troughing over the PNW for pretty much the whole month. This was a legendary month and I hope to see future Winter months in the years to come follow suit.

[Chewbacca Defense]

Bozeman Airport set a new all-time record low max for March today with -5F for the high. Today beat 1976 -3F for the previous coldest March high. Records go back to 1941.

 

All-time record low minimum is -32F. They definitely have a shot at beating that one as well tonight. 

 

 

I will be curious to see what my son has to say about the cold (hopefully be talking to him later tonight).  He's experienced -22, but was probably too young to remember it. 

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, good point about the ridge bridge or horseshoe type pattern locking the cold air in place even with the GOA Blocking being a bit South of where our sweet spot is. Helped keep the sustained troughing over the PNW for pretty much the whole month. This was a legendary month and I hope to see future Winter months in the years to come follow suit.

 

 

Let try this next time in December.  

[Cloud]

Temps plunged the minute the sun went down. A good 4-5 degrees in many places. Currently 40 with a 34 windchill.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Yep. If this wouldve been december PDX wouldve seen 40 inches conservatively.

[FroYoBro]

Impressive cold this evening. Down to 32 already with a DPof 13. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Dropped from 43 to 37 just minutes after the sun went down.  We'll get to freezing again.

[TT-SEA]

Temps plunged the minute the sun went down. A good 4-5 degrees in many places. Currently 40 with a 34 windchill.

Temps normally drop 4-5 degrees when the sun goes down. Even in July.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

32 here after only a high of 40. Worked outside all day in short sleeves felt warm today.

[TT-SEA]

Yep. If this wouldve been december PDX wouldve seen 40 inches conservatively.

 

It would have been basically the same 50 inches here... I don't think it has really rained for last month here. But I would have enjoyed it more in December. And others would have gotten so much more.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

It would have been basically the same 50 inches here... I don't think it has really rained for last month here. But I would have enjoyed it more in December. And others would have gotten so much more.

 

EUG would have broken 1969 easily.

[Andrew.]

Down to 27 here now with an awesome sunset to go along with it!

 

[TacomaWaWx]

It would have been basically the same 50 inches here... I don't think it has really rained for last month here. But I would have enjoyed it more in December. And others would have gotten so much more.

would have been one of the greatest snows any of us had ever seen if this pattern that started early February would have started around early to mid December

[MossMan]

29.

[TT-SEA]

Model battle continues for Wednesday...

 

00Z NAM:

 

 

00Z ICON:

 

[Perturbed Member]

Team euro just might win this one. 00z GFS clearly stronger and more north. The trend continues.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Model battle continues for Wednesday...

 

00Z NAM:

 

 

00Z ICON:

 

As of right now all the European models are showing moisture west of the Cascades on Wednesday while the North American models aren't.

[Perturbed Member]

As of right now all the European models are showing moisture west of the Cascades on Wednesday while the North American models aren't.

GFS is getting there

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

GFS is getting there

 

Good to see!

[TT-SEA]

GFS and FV3 are not there...  but they are compromising.   If you run the loop you can see the moisture being pulled to the NW but the amounts are very light likely due to dry air in place.

 

The ECMWF is showing the same basic set up... its just a little wetter.    But it was way too wet with the system last Wednesday.

 

I don't expect much more than some flurries for the Seattle area... based on the ECMWF as well.

 

[Cloud]

Temps normally drop 4-5 degrees when the sun goes down. Even in July.

True and the wind made it feel a lot colder. Haha

[Perturbed Member]

The GEM is trying too

00z

 

12z

 

 

Trends across most models today are for stronger and further NW with that low. Hopefully it continues and we can get this thing a bit more juicy. Most likely outcome even if we get hit is probably another dusting IMO. Going to be hard to overcome such a dry airmass. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

As Tim just mentioned he's not had rain in about a month and i just realized I've had no rain since the first or second of Feb. That is pretty amazing.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

This is almost a carbon copy of last week. I doubt west of the cascades will see much of anything with this but i guess it could move north and west a bit.

[snow_wizard]

I am officially impressed with this air mass.  Currently 33 here with east winds gusting to 20 and a dp of 10.  PDX is 32 with wind and a dp of 9.  Utterly insane numbers this early in the evening in March.  One thing people who don't live in outflow areas may not know is the freezing east winds have incredible freezing power compared to the same temperature in calm air with dps only slightly below the temperature.  A wind like this can turn the ground to iron in just a few hours with temperatures in the upper 20s.  I couldn't believe it the first time I saw it.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The GEM is trying too

00z

 

12z

 

 

Trends across most models today are for stronger and further NW with that low. Hopefully it continues and we can get this thing a bit more juicy. Most likely outcome even if we get hit is probably another dusting IMO. Going to be hard to overcome such a dry airmass.

Yeah, moisture seems pretty light at the moment but it's always incredible to see snow in March. Hopefully models will trend wetter next couple of days.