March 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW

[MossMan]

Just checked my weather station and I actually had a high of 53! I believe that is the warmest temp since January. Currently 45 with drops of rain here and there.

[MossMan]

Tomorrow might be it for general snow cover...

[Omegaraptor]

Roseburg hit 64 today. PDX and Hillsboro both reached 57.

[Bryant]

It's not like the term "bomb cyclone" is inaccurate. It's a cyclone that undergoes rapid cyclogenesis. It's not as rare as people think, though this one was very impressive from a pressure standpoint.

Lol, it's used for ratings first and foremost. It's an extreme headline that gets your attention. 99% of the population couldn't tell you what cyclogenisis was, let alone spell it

[El_Nina]

The birds are exploding in numbers.

[Requiem]

Lol, it's used for ratings first and foremost. It's an extreme headline that gets your attention. 99% of the population couldn't tell you what cyclogenisis was, let alone spell it

Exactly, I don’t see what’s wrong with it. Especially seeing as it was a very impactful and powerful system.

[Bryant]

Exactly, I don’t see what’s wrong with it. Especially seeing as it was a very impactful and powerful system.

You didn't interpret my post correctly apparently. I think those headlines are BS and just used to scare everyone. Just like the horrific and deadly "polar vortex". I bet the TV hosts themselves couldn't even explain what actually happened.

[Blizzard777]

55/36

Nothing much else to report

[GHweatherChris]

Hyperbole!

[Bryant]

[Jesse]

Some nice changes on the 00z GFS.

[El_Nina]

John Kasich is the kinda guy who would prefer this forum in the summer.

[Omegaraptor]

Some nice changes on the 00z GFS.

The one exciting thing about this GFS run is that it shows heavy rain next Friday. Only time will tell if it stays.

 

The non-exciting thing about this GFS run is that it shows a 49°F 00z temp the week after next. I know it’s over 240 hours out so I shouldn’t worry too much over it, but come on, 40s this far into the year is unacceptable. Is this Minneapolis?

[ShawniganLake]

The one exciting thing about this GFS run is that it shows heavy rain next Friday. Only time will tell if it stays.

 

The non-exciting thing about this GFS run is that it shows a 49°F 00z temp the week after next. I know it’s over 240 hours out so I shouldn’t worry too much over it, but come on, 40s this far into the year is unacceptable. Is this Minneapolis?

The high was in the 40s here today.

[Omegaraptor]

The high was in the 40s here today.

Sometimes I really need to swallow my complaints and realize I have it better than most of the PNW in terms of warmth.

 

Not in terms of rain, though. When it comes to that I’m probably in one of the worst spots west of the Cascade Crest not affected by a rainshadow.

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF is warm and dry for the next 8 days. It shows several days around 70 in Seattle as well.

 

Some rain after that warm spell will really kick everything into high gear.

[Omegaraptor]

00Z ECMWF is warm and dry for the next 8 days. It shows several days around 70 in Seattle as well.

Some rain after that warm spell will really kick everything into high gear.

I think Seattle will actually end up warmer than Portland because the high pressure is stronger in Seattle during this event. Portland will likely be seeing high 60s.

 

Same thing happened last year when Seattle saw a 70 in March and Portland didn’t.

[Phil]

New study finds El Nino is correlated to rainfall on the west coast of N. America, but the relationship explains at most 1/3 of the observed variance. "Our analysis demonstrates that much of the winter rainfall variability along the US west coast is dominated by unpredicted variations in the 200 mb height field."

 

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0181.1

Translated: Dynamic extratropical forcing on the tropics can be just as important as tropical forcing on the extratropics. It’s a dynamic relationship that runs both ways.

 

The northern annular mode/PV and QBO/RWB cycles affect tropical static stability/convection quite significantly, as does solar forcing if given enough time (both thru thermal-radiative conduits and photochemical conduits in the case of the solar wind/geomagnetic activity).

[TT-SEA]

Weak band of rain limps in here on day 9 per the 00Z ECMWF... its definitely being stretched apart in split flow.    

 

And the rain has been getting pushed back over the last couple runs.

 

I am just reporting what it shows... I would love some good rain events mixed in with warm days.

[Phil]

You didn't interpret my post correctly apparently. I think those headlines are BS and just used to scare everyone. Just like the horrific and deadly "polar vortex". I bet the TV hosts themselves couldn't even explain what actually happened.

Subjective, hyperbole-laden narratives are the worst.

 

“The weather is getting crazier every year” It’s unprecedented”. “Unheard of”. Blah blah blah. These lies are hard to refute when they’re being regurgitated by

stupid, know-nothing talking heads on the news 24/7.

[Phil]

And the rain has been getting pushed back over the last couple runs.

 

I am just reporting what it shows... I would love some good rain events mixed in with warm days.

Don’t worry, that will come in due time.

[TT-SEA]

Don’t worry, that will come in due time.

 

No kidding.   

 

Of course... nobody predicted 6 straight weeks of below normal temps either.   

 

But I am quite sure there will be plenty of rain from April - June.

[Phil]

But I am quite sure there will be plenty of rain from April - June.

Well I wouldn’t go that far. Hard to extent and consolidate the jet for 3 consecutive months after April 1st. There is likely to be a periodicity of 3 weeks or less (after the final warming is well underway) that will roughly line up with the cycle of AAM transport.

[Phil]

But in the *long* run (in the background) the moisture source looks much improved for the entire west coast this year. From CA to WA. At least as it stands right now.

 

It’s actually quite impressive. Much less meridional diversion and a more efficient z-cell network that voids destructive interference from excessive subtropical convection. This is the one big change from the entire 2013-18 period that is impossible to deny.

 

So this might be one of those old-timer El Niños that will inevitably deliver a real storm train to the West, especially as we approach next autumn and winter (as opposed to the +TNH/ridging of more recent ones).

[TT-SEA]

But in the *long* run (in the background) the moisture source looks much improved for the entire west coast this year. From CA to WA. At least as it stands right now.

 

It’s actually quite impressive. Much less meridional diversion and a more efficient z-cell network that voids destructive interference from excessive subtropical convection. This is the one big change from the entire 2013-18 period that is impossible to deny.

 

So this might be one of those old-timer El Niños that will inevitably deliver a real storm train to the West, especially as we approach next autumn and winter (as opposed to the +TNH/ridging of more recent ones).

The last big Nino in 2015-16 was very wet in the PNW. Wettest winter in history in some places.

 

Of course Seattle broke that record in 2016-17.

[El_Nina]

Getting a deja vu aura while looking at the 7 day forecast of pure sun and 10+° over average temps.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Getting a deja vu aura while looking at the 7 day forecast of pure sun and 10+° over average temps.

 

We are going to pay dearly for our cold stretch. Gotta get a second AC unit.

[Phil]

The last big Nino in 2015-16 was very wet in the PNW. Wettest winter in history in some places.

 

Of course Seattle broke that record in 2016-17.

That was because of the poleward-displaced and consolidated northern jet I mentioned, which left the summer months high and dry. This general theme was present in some form from 2013 to 2018, though it began retracting equatorward a bit in 2018.

 

That system state now looks to be either dead or dying. It’s just not present at all, as far as I can tell. The forcing structure has reorganized completely since the middle part of October with that reemergence of the intraseasonal cycle.

 

If this was a developing La Niña (which it isn’t) the outlook would be quite troughy/chilly. But under strengthening +ENSO, it will probably end up resembling a 1997 type pattern with time, which leans warm but with intraseasonal variability easily expressed.

[TT-SEA]

Starting out well above freezing this morning despite clearing skies... going to be a gorgeous day!

[MossMan]

Currently 38 and partly cloudy.

[MossMan]

Day 41 might be it for general snow cover...Been a heck of a run!

[Blizzard777]

Overnight low of 34*

[TacomaWaWx]

Definitely going to be the warmest stretch of weather since mid October here coming up. Looks like there might be less cloud cover today than yesterday as well. This has definitely been a very strange winter. Going from relatively calm weather from October-November, a couple windstorms in December then a record warm January. Pretty much every day from October-January was above normal temp wise and below normal precipitation wise. Then February-Early March hits with the coldest month in 30 years and now some nice spring weather returning. Just a very interesting winter was the most active winter in regards to Thunderstorms, Windstorms, Rainstorms and snowstorms as well as having both record warm and cold periods. The December 20th and January 6th wind events were pretty strong but January 6th was the most severe here in Tacoma.It was the strongest winds I have seen since 2006. February 8-9th snow was definitely one of the biggest 12-18 hour snow events here in a long time.

[jakerepp]

00Z ECMWF is warm and dry for the next 8 days. It shows several days around 70 in Seattle as well.

 

Some rain after that warm spell will really kick everything into high gear.

 

I have dreams about that kind of petrichor 

[MikeInEverett]

Mt. Rainier looked incredible on my flight back from Tucson this morning...

 

[Jesse]

12z GFS ensembles like the idea of a cooler, wetter long range.

 

 

12z operational looks really good too.

[Jesse]

Definitely going to be the warmest stretch of weather since mid October here coming up. Looks like there might be less cloud cover today than yesterday as well. This has definitely been a very strange winter. Going from relatively calm weather from October-November, a couple windstorms in December then a record warm January. Pretty much every day from October-January was above normal temp wise and below normal precipitation wise. Then February-Early March hits with the coldest month in 30 years and now some nice spring weather returning. Just a very interesting winter was the most active winter in regards to Thunderstorms, Windstorms, Rainstorms and snowstorms as well as having both record warm and cold periods. The December 20th and January 6th wind events were pretty strong but January 6th was the most severe here in Tacoma.It was the strongest winds I have seen since 2006. February 8-9th snow was definitely one of the biggest 12-18 hour snow events here in a long time.

January wasn’t record warm. December was actually the warmer of the two months but I don’t think it was either. Nice synopsis though!

[Jesse]

12z Euro seems to be moving toward the GFS in the mid range.

[MossMan]

First time since January that the sweatshirt might actually need to come off.

[Jesse]

Sunny and 48 here currently after a low of 34. Should be heading for our first 60 degree day since November.