March 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW

[Jesse]

00z GFS is a flaming pile of trash. I expect the Euro to follow suit.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Checking in from College Basketball land...looks like going back to warmth.

[MossMan]

00z GFS is a flaming pile of trash. I expect the Euro to follow suit.

I feel like we are in Early to mid January again with models being flaming piles of trash...

[Requiem]

I feel like we are in Early to mid January again with models being flaming piles of trash...

In a way I’m glad the models look trashy again. No unrealistic expectations like the three near-misses we had down here.

[Omegaraptor]

GFS and FV3 show lots of split flow with periods of stronger ridging mixed in.

 

Maybe we aren't going to have some crazy heat spike followed by a return to winter? I hope not anyways.

 

As I said. What I’m seeing after this first ridge is a temporary and short-lived trough event mainly targeting Oregon rather than Washington. I can imagine Oregon picking up some drizzle but by no means anything hard. The last few frames show a return to ridging and mild weather.

[Cloud]

Yesterday was the 39th day in a row where SEA saw high temps below normal. Today (Wed) going to be close but should be below normal for 40 days in a row. Thursday appears to be the end of it and we go into an extended period of above normal temps.

 

What we’ve been experiencing since February is truly extraordinary.

 

A year ago, we’ve already dealt with temps in the 70s. Ugh.

[TT-SEA]

Yesterday was the 39th day in a row where SEA saw high temps below normal. Today (Wed) going to be close but should be below normal for 40 days in a row. Thursday appears to be the end of it and we go into an extended period of above normal temps.

 

What we’ve been experiencing since February is truly extraordinary.

 

A year ago, we’ve already dealt with temps in the 70s. Ugh.

 

 

Dealt with room temperature comfort.  

 

Hope we have to deal with it again soon!

 

[Phil]

We’ve certainly seen progress in the right (cold) direction over the last few years. Warm periods have generally shrunk in duration and have been confined to the warm season (when the ITCZ has been able to broaden).

 

This year might have the z-cells equatorward just enough that the big 4CH/western ridge pattern never fully establishes like recent years, or it might be muted in favor of a more 1997-ish east-based niño pattern.

 

It doesn’t look cold, but the big ridge pattern might be less of an issue barring some super +PMM re-emergence.

[Cloud]

Dealt with room temperature comfort.

 

Hope we have to deal with it again soon!

 

Your definition of “comfort” may be different than others considering you have a warm bias. March 12 last year was 73F and a +20F above normal is what some may call a blow torch.

 

Thank god it was just a one day deal last year and it came back down into the mid 50s the rest of the month.

[Dave]

Fukking kill me.

[MossMan]

Fukking kill me.

I heard frogs for the first time this season on Monday!! Much later than usual.

[El_Nina]

Yes.

Truly gonna be sad if this ends up happening.

[TT-SEA]

The c-zone is still going... very persistent.

 

Its sort of acted like a warm blanket overnight though as its 37 at SEA and 35 here but 28 at OLM.

 

I don't see any snow on the traffic cams... but there is probably some hail or maybe wet snow under the more active part of the c-zone south of Everett.

[Blizzard777]

Meanwhile crazy widespread K12 special unfolding!

Dallas Fort Worth area got slammed already from a line of storms earlier.

 

 

32* here

[Blizzard777]

Dealt with room temperature comfort.  

 

Hope we have to deal with it again soon!

 

Garden centers will be busy!

[Requiem]

Meanwhile crazy widespread K12 special unfolding!

Dallas Fort Worth area got slammed already from a line of storms earlier.

 

 

32* here

I am so freaking jealous. Especially after this winter of some pretty big missed opportunities.

[MossMan]

My Junipers are trying very hard to re-emerge. Day 39 of having a cold blanket.

Low so far of 36 and a high so far of 36.

[TT-SEA]

My Junipers are trying very hard to re-emerge. Day 39 of having a cold blanket.

Low so far of 36 and a high so far of 36.

 

 

Its actually an insulating blanket to them... even though it would be really cold to us to be buried in snow for 6 weeks.  

 

Although it appears that some of our bushes were crushed by their blanket.  

[MossMan]

Its actually an insulating blanket to them... even though it would be really cold to us to be buried in snow for 6 weeks.

 

Although it appears that some of our bushes were crushed by their blanket.

It appears that most of my landscaping is mostly unharmed. I did that massive cutback of the overgrown front entry shrubs and trees...I think that helped. Otherwise I would have been out with a broom constantly beating the snow off of them before they got crushed.

[ShawniganLake]

Its actually an insulating blanket to them... even though it would be really cold to us to be buried in snow for 6 weeks.

 

Although it appears that some of our bushes were crushed by their blanket.

I was trying to explain this to someone the other day. She was worried about her perennials that had started to grown before February started. I said they would probably be fine and that the snow will actually help protect them from the cold nights we had. But if the snow breaks branches that’s a totally different problem. She seemed skeptical.

[TT-SEA]

I was trying to explain this to someone the other day. She was worried about her perennials that had started to grown before February started. I said they would probably be fine and that the snow will actually help protect them from the cold nights we had. But if the snow breaks branches that’s a totally different problem. She seemed skeptical.

 

 

Because she is imagining herself being buried under snow for weeks and how miserable that would be.    

 

But it definitely helped to protect them from the cold nighttime temps over the last month. 

[MossMan]

Because she is imagining herself being buried under snow for weeks and how miserable that would be.

 

But it definitely helped to protect them from the cold nighttime temps over the last month.

Also protects the grass from foot and dog traffic! Frosty/frozen grass gets nuked when stepped on.

[MikeInEverett]

Wow that convergence zone lasted a long time.

[TacomaWaWx]

Ok...we should finally be done with snow now yesterday morning was probably the last occurrence. Looking forward to some nice weather finally we will see how long it lasts though. We will go from 35 and snow to 70 and sunshine in less than 2 weeks.

[Omegaraptor]

Holy crap! 06z GFS shows a 77°F high here for March 21. Portland could be warmer than Phoenix and Miami!

[Front Ranger]

Meanwhile crazy widespread K12 special unfolding!

Dallas Fort Worth area got slammed already from a line of storms earlier.

 

 

32* here

 

I'm headed to Austin tomorrow through Sunday. Looks well below normal, but dry, with high temps near 60.

[Jesse]

Awesome photos Jesse! Love the deep color of the icicles too!!!

 

 

Thanks man. I’ve never seen color that deep on waterfall ice before. Probably because it was so thick. Made the ice refract light like a glacier.

[Timmy Supercell]

Spring making a first entrance here over the next week or so with a couple possible highs in the low 60's.

 

But who knows a little after this I could still go back to 40's and night time snow. Still another few weeks where many will still consider it to be winter in this area.

[TT-SEA]

This would probably be cold and dreary in the lowlands in December... but not in March.   

 

 

[Bryant]

[Omegaraptor]

This would probably be cold and dreary in the lowlands in December... but not in March.

 

 

Wouldn’t this still be sunny in mid-winter unless an inversion happened?

[TT-SEA]

Wouldn’t this still be sunny in mid-winter unless an inversion happened?

 

A strong ridge like that in December would cause an inversion... and it would likely be cold in the lowlands even it was sunny (and likely hazy).    The foothills and mountains would be much warmer than the lowlands with crystal clear visibility.  

[TT-SEA]

Finally a partly sunny day with a dewpoint above freezing. Lots of water out there today.

[Omegaraptor]

A strong ridge like that in December would cause an inversion... and it would likely be cold in the lowlands even it was sunny (and likely hazy). The foothills and mountains would be much warmer than the lowlands with crystal clear visibility.

 

So basically what happened that one day in January. The ridge was so strong that all the cold air just sank to the valley floor. Portland failed to break 41 with heavy fog all day while the mountains were warm and Redding was challenging temperature records.

 

Is this the same phenomenon that causes the heavy tule fog in the Central Valley? I’ve seen similarly heavy fog in Salem before while Portland has very low clouds.

[TT-SEA]

So basically what happened that one day in January. The ridge was so strong that all the cold air just sank to the valley floor. Portland failed to break 41 with heavy fog all day while the mountains were warm and Redding was challenging temperature records.

 

Is this the same phenomenon that causes the heavy tule fog in the Central Valley? I’ve seen similarly heavy fog in Salem before while Portland has very low clouds.

 

Yes to all.  

[Jesse]

A lot of southerly flow on the Euro next week. Might not be enough to get PDX up to 70 but there should be a longish string of days well into the 60s.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is warm and dry. 

 

A band of light rain manages to get in here by day 9 but its not much.  

 

Here is day 10... everything is going around us and into CA.

 

[Cloud]

Watched some video feeds and the conditions in Denver. Complete whiteout and blizzard conditions.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Watched some video feeds and the conditions in Denver. Complete whiteout and blizzard conditions.

Yes. I just saw Mike Seidel live there and he was in blizzard conditions for sure. 27 degrees, heavy snow, 70 mph winds. Things we dream of.

[Jesse]

12Z ECMWF is warm and dry.

 

A band of light rain manages to get in here by day 9 but its not much.

 

Here is day 10... everything is going around us and into CA.

 

You’d think a warm and dry period now would lock in a more unsettled period later on the the spring but I doubt we get that lucky. Should be another perfect, drought filled warm season.