March 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS is in perfect agreement with the operational run through day 10.

 

Here is day 10...

 

 

 

As with previous runs... the ridge does not crash on the 12Z EPS.   

 

That cold pool and trough in the Pacific on day 10 breaks off and meanders into southern CA.  

 

Here is day 12:

 

[Phil]

I want 120 degrees and every living thing to die in the summer... and you want 37-degree drizzle and thick low clouds for the entire summer. I get it!

 

It is what is. And all Republicans are racist and all Democrats are left wing nuts burning cities to the ground. Not much we can do about it.

I honestly think you would prefer living Death Valley to another summer like 2011 in the PNW. There’s no shame in admitting it.

[snow_wizard]

March of 1955 only topped out at 60 for PDX. Pretty good chance they get well above that in the 5-10 day range assuming the models don’t change.

 

I wasn't talking about March, but I get what you're saying.

[snow_wizard]

As I said. I don’t mind the warmth. Just the dryness. I have stated multiple times that I am sick of 40s and don’t want to see another one until November.

 

Rain is not always synonymous with cold. Give me some 60 degree spring showers and I won’t complain.

 

60 degree rain isn't going to happen this early.

[TT-SEA]

Something tells me that six months from now we might look back at the last five weeks as a cold blip on the radar in an overall warm and dry year.

 

I get this sense as well.   Probably the opposite of 1955 overall.   That year seems to come up on here every spring.

[Phil]

12Z EPS is in perfect agreement with the operational run through day 10.

 

Here is day 10...

 

It’s gonna snow into April here again. F**k.

[snow_wizard]

Just drove through the north end of maple valley. Still a good 5-6 inches of snow on the ground in spots. Snowwizard must be pretty disappointed seeing that areas just 5 miles from him got blasted.

 

I am really disappointed by that.  If the warmest layer of the atmosphere had been about 2 degrees colder with that huge event it would have been all snow here.  I had freezing snow mixed with rain for much of it.  Hard to pull off that combo.

[TT-SEA]

I honestly think you would prefer living Death Valley to another summer like 2011 in the PNW. There’s no shame in admitting it.

 

I think you are guilty of exaggerating people's views to an extreme degree to create division.

 

You decry that from both sides in politics... but you are awesome at doing exactly that on here.    Must be human nature.  

[GHweatherChris]

It’s gonna snow into April here again. F**k.

Go ***** about it in the appropriate forum, keep it out of here, thanks.

[snow_wizard]

If the ECMWF verifies I will be very interested to see if it crashes to well below normal again afterward.  That would be more of a La Nina type thing, but anything goes this year.  I think one thing we know after these past 5 weeks is we don't nearly as much as we thought we did about how this all works.

[ShawniganLake]

Average low for the first 9 days of March here is 24.1F. Pretty crazy and consistent with the dry cold since Valentine’s Day.

[Phil]

Something tells me that six months from now we might look back at the last five weeks as a cold blip on the radar in an overall warm and dry year.

Warm, maybe. Though to me it looks sort of “muted” in that regard if we look at the year as a whole.

 

But dry? Lol..hell no. The low frequency train of diabatic heating/moisture flux looks incredible. Not really established yet, but what’s setting up is definitely out of the pre-1998 playbook.

 

None of the 21st century +ENSO years will work as analogs this go around. None. Zip. Zilch. Zero. Nada.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS does bring in some mild zonal flow finally by day 15.    That seems very likely to happen even if the models were not showing it.   There has to be a rainy period in March at some point.   I will be cheering for this as well.  

 

     

[Jesse]

If the ECMWF verifies I will be very interested to see if it crashes to well below normal again afterward. That would be more of a La Nina type thing, but anything goes this year. I think one thing we know after these past 5 weeks is we don't nearly as much as we thought we did about how this all works.

I hope it does too but I just can’t imagine us getting that lucky. Feels like we burnt through a lot of cold points since the beginning of February. And those are outnumbered by warm points by about 5:1 in this climate.

[snow_wizard]

Just saw an interesting tidbit on Weatherbell.  Illinois set an all time record low during the polar vortex.  -38 breaks the old record of -35 from Jan 1930.  Very exciting year!

[Phil]

Warm, maybe. Though to me it looks sort of “muted” in that regard if we look at the year as a whole.

 

But dry? Lol..hell no. The low frequency train of diabatic heating/moisture flux looks incredible. Not really established yet, but what’s setting up is definitely out of the pre-1998 playbook.

 

None of the 21st century +ENSO years will work as analogs this go around. None. Zip. Zilch. Zero. Nada.

To add..just wait until the final warming and monsoonal inception over Eurasia, and watch what happens to the pattern.

[snow_wizard]

I hope it does too but I just can’t imagine us getting that lucky. Feels like we burnt through a lot of cold points since the beginning of February. And those are outnumbered by warm points by about 5:1 in this climate.

 

I think you are selling what just happened short.  It's highly possible this was a major regime shakeup.  The atmosphere has gone through a major upheaval.  

[TT-SEA]

Warm, maybe. Though to me it looks sort of “muted” in that regard if we look at the year as a whole.

 

But dry? Lol..hell no. The low frequency train of diabatic heating/moisture flux looks incredible. Not really established yet, but what’s setting up is definitely out of the pre-1998 playbook.

 

None of the 21st century +ENSO years will work as analogs this go around. None. Zip. Zilch. Zero. Nada.

 

 

Warm but not real dry sounds nice.   Our summers are pretty dry anyways... and its hard to find warm and wet summers in our history.    

 

August of 2015 was very warm and top tier wet in the Seattle area.   I loved that month.  

[Jesse]

I think you are selling what just happened short. It's highly possible this was a major regime shakeup. The atmosphere has gone through a major upheaval.

 

Maybe. The day 10 Euro just has me feeling pretty gloomy.

[Deweydog]

We’re f*cked.

[Jesse]

Go f**k yourself sideways with a chainsaw in a meatgrinder, thanks.

Why do you always get away with making posts like this? I feel like I would end up on mod preview for two weeks for this one.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Someone want to clear something up for me?

 

NWS has a low of 27 tonight but shows a 10% chance of precip. How do they come up with percentage chances from 0 to 100%?

 

I mean we all know when it is a foregone conclusion but how exactly do they do it?

[Jesse]

Warm, maybe. Though to me it looks sort of “muted” in that regard if we look at the year as a whole.

 

But dry? Lol..hell no. The low frequency train of diabatic heating/moisture flux looks incredible. Not really established yet, but what’s setting up is definitely out of the pre-1998 playbook.

 

None of the 21st century +ENSO years will work as analogs this go around. None. Zip. Zilch. Zero. Nada.

That would be great news. I miss our climate being wet. Hope you are right.

[Phil]

Warm but not real dry sounds nice. Our summers are pretty dry anyways... and its hard to find warm and wet summers in our history.

 

August of 2015 was very warm and top tier wet in the Seattle area. I loved that month.

This is no 2015. That was a regionally-dry summer even with the SEA precip..this could be a very wet summer relative to what people are used to across the PNW.

 

Again, I’d drop the 21st century analogs. For summer I’d look to 1980s/90s +ENSO analogs as a guide. An interesting one is 1997.

[TT-SEA]

That would be great news. I miss our climate being wet. Hope you are right.

 

You deleted your old post and posted it again to move it up.  

[Jesse]

Warm but not real dry sounds nice. Our summers are pretty dry anyways... and its hard to find warm and wet summers in our history.

 

August of 2015 was very warm and top tier wet in the Seattle area. I loved that month.

Of course that was in the middle of an unprecedented hot and dry warm season. Which I realize is why you picked it.

[Jesse]

You deleted your old post and posted it again to move it up.

No, I went to edit it and accidentally deleted. Happens a lot on my phone.

[Phil]

Why do you always get away with making posts like this? I feel like I would end up on mod preview for two weeks for this one.

I don’t know, but I didn’t actually mean it. I like to mess around sometimes.

 

You’d probably mean it..and then some. Lol.

[TT-SEA]

This is no 2015. That was a regionally-dry summer even with the SEA precip..this could be a very wet summer relative to what people are used to across the PNW.

 

Again, I’d drop the 21st century analogs. For summer I’d look to 1980s/90s +ENSO analogs as a guide. An interesting one is 1997.

 

I am not saying this will be like 2015 at all.   I was just giving an example of a warm and wet month.  

 

You do great overall... but your warm season forecasts locally for the past several years have not been as good.   

 

I remember being mocked for even suggesting 2017 could be a warm and dry summer and years like 1983 and 1993 kept coming up.   I was then scolded for quoting some of those old posts when it was hot and dry that summer.   

[Jesse]

Well I don’t actually mean it. You’d probably mean it and then some. Lol.

Lol. Good one. Lol.

 

I reported it so I guess we’ll see what happens.

[snow_wizard]

Maybe. The day 10 Euro just has me feeling pretty gloomy.

 

I think it would actually be pretty amazing to have that happen.  Lows are still shown to be in the 30s in many places at that time.  Rather impressively the Euro also shows tonight being a degree or two colder than last night.

[TT-SEA]

And I am not saying this will be a hot and dry summer.  Everyone just assumes that is what I am always saying.

 

I would be shocked if this is another extremely dry warm season.   And not that it matters... but I do not want another extremely dry warm season.   

[TT-SEA]

I have been looking at dog poop on top of hard snow for what seems like forever... some of that dog poop has now reached the grass today. It does not seem to be melting away like the snow!

[snow_wizard]

Unhinged?  Nope, I'm an American patriot.  Served 3 tours overseas.

 

Go to any University in the USA and they are slowly eroding the beliefs and convictions our forefathers stood for.  Teaching children to give foreigners more rights than naturalized citizens.  Stomping on the constitution.

 

It really doesn't matter what beliefs your child has as they enter one of these places for 4 years.  Normally by the time they are done they have been trained to be an obedient liberal servant.

 

P.S.  That is the last I will speak on the subject as this is a weather forum.  Cheers!  

 

There is Hillsdale College.  One of their requirements is learning the Constitution forwards and backwards before the students graduate.  Truly conservative.

[snow_wizard]

Veto power when it comes to funding is totally reasonable, but dictating "You are going to MSU because father said so" is BS. Parents need to learn to let their children be their own person at some point.

 

But then again being the selfish hillbilly that Andrew is, I'm not at all surprised that's the kind of parent he'd be.

 

You are just so vicious and mean.  You don't think parents deserve to have some say since they are paying for their child to go to college?  The meanness of some people on the left is going to be their downfall IMO.  I can get pretty mean, but all I'm doing is reacting to people who don't follow the golden rule.  It's so easy to treat other as you want to be treated, but the left has to get in your face about everything.

[Phil]

I am not saying this will be like 2015 at all. I was just giving an example of a warm and wet month.

 

You do great overall... but your warm season forecasts locally for the past several years have not been as good.

 

I remember being mocked for even suggesting 2017 could be a warm and dry summer and years like 1983 and 1993 kept coming up. I was then scolded for quoting some of those old posts when it was hot and dry that summer.

This is mostly narrative spinning. You keep bringing up my one legitimate bust and reliving it like Trump keeps reliving his 2016 victory. It’s funny. I don’t always bring up 1993/1983 except in troll posts directed at you, which you always take literally.

 

Not to toot my own horn, but in 2018 I called for a cool June, hot midsummer, and more cool weather at the end. Not perfect..the heat continued into September, but not terrible either. In 2016, I called for a blowtorch spring, warm June, trending cool into J/A/S. Again, not perfect, but not terrible either. I thought 2015 would be a blowtorch.

 

FWIW, 2017 was the year with the skipped QBO cycle and mini warm ENSO episode early on that tried to grow via classical conduits and failed. Hard to forecast. Lots of people were right for the wrong reasons.

[Requiem]

Unhinged? Nope, I'm an American patriot. Served 3 tours overseas.

 

Go to any University in the USA and they are slowly eroding the beliefs and convictions our forefathers stood for. Teaching children to give foreigners more rights than naturalized citizens. Stomping on the constitution.

 

It really doesn't matter what beliefs your child has as they enter one of these places for 4 years. Normally by the time they are done they have been trained to be an obedient liberal servant.

 

P.S. That is the last I will speak on the subject as this is a weather forum. Cheers!

 

I don’t know, a lot of people go to college and I promise the majority aren’t flag-burning communist sympathizers with secret plans to destroy America.

[MossMan]

[TT-SEA]

This is mostly narrative spinning. You keep bringing up my one legitimate bust and reliving it like Trump keeps reliving his 2016 victory. It’s funny. I don’t always bring up 1993/1983 except in troll posts directed at you, which you always take literally.

 

Not to toot my own horn, but in 2018 I called for a cool June, hot midsummer, and more cool weather at the end. Not perfect..the heat continued into September, but not terrible either. In 2016, I called for a blowtorch spring, warm June, trending cool into J/A/S. Again, not perfect, but not terrible either. I thought 2015 would be a blowtorch.

 

FWIW, 2017 was the year with the skipped QBO cycle and mini warm ENSO episode early on that tried to grow via classical conduits and failed. Hard to forecast. Lots of people were right for the wrong reasons.

 

 

And some narrative spinning of you own.   Human nature I guess.  

[TT-SEA]

I have been going out in the evenings when the snow is softer and trying to get what I can. Not a chance in the mornings unless it’s still warm but you have to get it right away before it sinks in.

 

 

I have done nothing with it since February 3rd.   So you can imagine the fun job I have coming up here this week.