April 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW

[Phil]

We’ve only seen about 40% as much rain this April as we did in 2018, here locally.

 

I wouldn’t be too surprised if this May/June combined ends up warmer than last year

June will probably end up cooler.

[Jesse]

June will probably end up cooler.

Another run of the mill record warm and dry May though?

[Phil]

Unfortunately I just learned one of my good childhood friends was killed in this incident. Served our nation in the Marines and was a great family man. He leaves behind a wife and children. Pretty in shock right now...

What the hell man. I’m so sorry.

[Jesse]

Unfortunately I just learned one of my good childhood friends was killed in this incident. Served our nation in the Marines and was a great family man. He leaves behind a wife and children. Pretty in shock right now...

That’s pretty crazy. It’s a small world. I am sorry to hear this.

[Phil]

Another run of the mill record warm and dry May though?

Not as crazy as last May. That was a much more profound, amplified signal compared to this year.

 

June (or at least the first half of it) along with the last week of May should be much cooler with the EHEM forcing cranking and the completion of the poleward cycle of AAM transport.

[Omegaraptor]

Not as crazy as last May. That was a much more profound, amplified signal compared to this year.

June (or at least the first half of it) along with the last week of May should be much cooler with the EHEM forcing cranking and the completion of the poleward cycle of AAM transport.

Early June. Every single year.

 

Fun Fact: June 5th and June 6th have a 40% chance, each, of recording precipitation at PDX. The average for any given day in May is 39%.

 

June 6 and 7, in terms of record rainfall for that date, rank #1 and #3 for June, respectively. They also rank high when stacked up to May and even April records.

 

Another surprising fact: The 1.70” of rain recorded on June 6, 1958 is not matched or exceeded, going back through the calendar, until February 24.

 

Interesting little anomaly of our climate.

[Anti Marine Layer]

That does look spectacular

 

Beautiful day...

[ShawniganLake]

Early June. Every single year.

 

Fun Fact: June 5th and June 6th have a 40% chance, each, of recording precipitation at PDX. The average for any given day in May is 39%.

 

June 6 and 7, in terms of record rainfall for that date, rank #1 and #3 for June, respectively. They also rank high when stacked up to May and even April records.

 

Another surprising fact: The 1.70” of rain recorded on June 6, 1958 is not matched or exceeded, going back through the calendar, until February 24.

 

Interesting little anomaly of our climate.

June 6th has been warm and dry the past 5 years.

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS is basically dry for the next 16 days.

[Jesse]

00Z GFS is basically dry for the next 16 days.

For Portland?? You forgot to say for Portland.

 

#slipping

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That’s pretty crazy. It’s a small world. I am sorry to hear this.

 

Yeah, when I heard about the accident last night I immediately thought of him because I knew he did that sort of work in the Seattle area, but I thought the chances were relatively low he was involved. Really the kind of guy you would want your son to grow up to be, I know a lot of people say that when someone passes, but it is true. A really great family, heartbroken for them.

 

Was a beautiful day. Just sitting out on he porch listening to the frogs croak and looking at the stars. 58/27 today. Looks like SLE was 66/32. 

[TT-SEA]

For Portland?? You forgot to say for Portland.

 

#slipping

 

Not just for Portland... for Seattle and even out here.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not just for Portland... for Seattle and even out here.   

 

My buddy and I were working on my fence yesterday. He drove his big F250 right out on the pasture, ground has already dried out. 

[TT-SEA]

My buddy and I were working on my fence yesterday. He drove his big F250 right out on the pasture, ground has already dried out. 

 

 

Our lawn did not make squishing sounds when you walked on it today... good start.

[Jesse]

Not quite as bad as I imagined.

 

[TT-SEA]

Not quite as bad as I imagined.

 

B665CB9D-C1DD-4807-926E-58FE37ADE68E.png

That one member showing heavy rain at the end of run saved it!

[Jesse]

That one member showing heavy rain at the end of run saved it!

No just more spread/potential for pattern variability.

[Omegaraptor]

That one member showing heavy rain at the end of run saved it!

Lock it in!

 

 

Hoping for a thunderstorm as May/June usually yield the highest chances at a good one.

[Phil]

May 1997. #ItWillBeOkayJesse

 

[Phil]

June 1997.

 

[Front Ranger]

If there's one thing we've learned over the years, it's that seasonal patterns usually follow a single analog.

[Phil]

If there's one thing we've learned over the years, it's that seasonal patterns usually follow a single analog.

That wasn’t the point I was trying to make.

 

The exact opposite, actually. Context.

[Front Ranger]

That wasn’t the point I was trying to make.

 

The exact opposite, actually. Context.

How so? 1997 is the one year you keep pointing to.

[TacomaWaWx]

Looks like the weather forecasts are getting better for sunshine and mid to upper 60s around the Seattle area. Maybe finally heading into some consistent dry weather for a bit.

[TT-SEA]

All signs point to clouds and rain forming over King County this afternoon... all models are showing this happening.   

 

Crystal clear now... but I expect to see clouds billowing over the Cascades in a couple hours.

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Beautiful out there.  50F right now.

[TT-SEA]

Gorgeous weekend incoming per all the models right now.  

[El_Nina]

Wow waking up to pure blue skies and sun again.

[TT-SEA]

The very beginning of convection now... should get interesting later.

 

[jakeinthevalley]

Got a nice round of golf in yesterday morning at Chehalem Glenn in Newberg. Frost delay first thing in the morning. Expect that in Central Oregon this time of year, not in the Valley. Amazed at how firm the course was though. Talked with one of the assistant greenskeepers while waiting out the delay and he said they are expecting to start watering the greens regularly this week.

[Cloud]

It appears there was a 35mph wind gust that may have contributed to the deadly crane collapse in Seattle. According to Cliff Mass, the gust was 10-15mph stronger than areas nearby. 

Sad outcome. 

[El_Nina]

The very beginning of convection now... should get interesting later.

Did those just pop up or have they been there? They look marine.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Western Oregon sees its first rain of May on the 15th if the GFS is correct. 

 

Looks like I'll see a lot of rain in Oklahoma this week though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[Phil]

How so? 1997 is the one year you keep pointing to.

Read the convo before commenting.

 

The point was, not all ridgy Mays lead to 2018-like summers, not that 2019 will follow 1997 to a tee (though it is a decent analog).

 

Get it now?

[Phil]

Can we ban Flatiron from responding to any posts without explicitly defined context? So f**king tired of this charade.

[Cloud]

Yeah, when I heard about the accident last night I immediately thought of him because I knew he did that sort of work in the Seattle area, but I thought the chances were relatively low he was involved. Really the kind of guy you would want your son to grow up to be, I know a lot of people say that when someone passes, but it is true. A really great family, heartbroken for them.

 

Was a beautiful day. Just sitting out on he porch listening to the frogs croak and looking at the stars. 58/27 today. Looks like SLE was 66/32. 

 

I'm very sorry for your loss Andrew. Life is way too short and you never really know what's going to happen next. 

 

On a more positive note. It's an absolute beauty of a day so far here today as well and the drive to work across I-90 bridge this morning is beautiful with Mt. Rainier being stunning with all the snow cover. 

[TT-SEA]

Did those just pop up or have they been there? They look marine.

 

Formed there and growing...

 

[Phil]

Formed there and growing...

 

That’s convective? If so that’s Cumulus Mediocris.

 

IE: Poor man’s convection. Snooze.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

That’s convective? If so that’s Cumulus Mediocris.

 

IE: Poor man’s convection. Snooze.

 

Probably going to produce some sprinkles later.