Jesse Posted May 17, 2019 Report Share Posted May 17, 2019 That’s Friday, two days beyond the Mon-Wed period. I’m considering providing you a link to my stormvista account so you can view the individual members, as long as you agree not to post them publicly. I think it might help clear up the confusion.Sadly this argument will not being the region much needed precip, Phil. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 17, 2019 Report Share Posted May 17, 2019 That’s Friday, two days beyond the Mon-Wed period. I’m considering providing you a link to my stormvista account so you can view the individual members, as long as you agree not to post them publicly. I think it might help clear up the confusion.I can see individual members on WB. Low resolution and have been way too wet. And you don't need those maps for 3 days out anyways. The ECMWF operational is high resolution and very good at that range. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 17, 2019 Report Share Posted May 17, 2019 Sadly this argument will not being the region much needed precip, Phil. He will keep trolling me about some phantom wet pattern that is probably not in the cards... no matter how hard he tries. At least not yet. Maybe in June. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted May 17, 2019 Report Share Posted May 17, 2019 I will keep praying then. Someone already has a nice summer tan! Puyallupjon is jealous. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted May 17, 2019 Report Share Posted May 17, 2019 You’re getting ahead of yourself again. That said, I don’t want to rehash this debate for the unpteenth time. The end results will leave little doubt. I’m confident there will not be any prolonged ridging in the near future. These are the type of statements that come back to haunt you, Phil... Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 17, 2019 Report Share Posted May 17, 2019 These are the type of statements that come back to haunt you, Phil... Pretty vague and subjective though. So he will end up right no matter what actually happens. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 17, 2019 Report Share Posted May 17, 2019 ECMWF 10-day precip anomaly map... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcmcgaffey Posted May 17, 2019 Report Share Posted May 17, 2019 Granted, this map has not updated through this morning yet. But still, your location is a massive outlier if what you're saying is accurate. MonthPNormWRCC-NW.pngI know I am an outlier and in a unique spot because of the way the recent weather pattern has set up this last week or so. SEA average to date is 1.01" for the month and annual May precip is around 1.6", my small area (NW Seattle) runs drier than SEA and I am over 1" for the month already based on my neighbors weather station. The map you posted above generalizes all the little nuances around the puget sound. I know I am not backing this up with top scientific data but I have always been fascinated with the little nuances around here in regards to weather. I remember having to read Cliff Mass's book on local weather when taking a few meteorology classes at UW but he had some great maps that showed more details and we talked about how the olympic rain shadow angles down into Seattle from the NW so that even small distances within Seattle itself going NW can have large annual precip differences. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 17, 2019 Report Share Posted May 17, 2019 I know I am an outlier and in a unique spot because of the way the recent weather pattern has set up this last week or so. SEA average to date is 1.01" for the month and annual May precip is around 1.6", my small area (NW Seattle) runs drier than SEA and I am over 1" for the month already based on my neighbors weather station. The map you posted above generalizes all the little nuances around the puget sound. I know I am not backing this up with top scientific data but I have always been fascinated with the little nuances around here in regards to weather. I remember having to read Cliff Mass's book on local weather when taking a few meteorology classes at UW but he had some great maps that showed more details and we talked about how the olympic rain shadow angles down into Seattle from the NW so that even small distances within Seattle itself going NW can have large annual precip differences. Normal rain at SEA for the entire month of May is actually 1.94 inches. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 17, 2019 Report Share Posted May 17, 2019 Dreary day in Seattle. Real bummer for my friend and his girlfriend who are visiting...I told them all about the spectacular mountain/water views, which they obviously can't see right now with the visibility. Screenshot_32.png Much nicer day today... hopefully your friend is still here. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted May 17, 2019 Author Report Share Posted May 17, 2019 Still a decent SW breeze but partly sunny and 58. Not exactly warm but still nice day. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 17, 2019 Report Share Posted May 17, 2019 These are the type of statements that come back to haunt you, Phil...How’s that 2018 repeat going? The pattern is literally almost a perfect inverse to last year across the NH right now. Lol. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted May 17, 2019 Report Share Posted May 17, 2019 Nice day! Breezy! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 17, 2019 Report Share Posted May 17, 2019 How’s that 2018 repeat going? The pattern is literally almost a perfect inverse to last year across the NH right now. Lol. And yet... very similar results around here. Actually running a little warmer than May 2018 in the Seattle area at least. And only slightly wetter. With warmer and drier weather ahead. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 17, 2019 Report Share Posted May 17, 2019 Pretty vague and subjective though. So he will end up right no matter what actually happens.Prolonged = more than a week. I don’t see that happening. Nothing to support it. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 17, 2019 Report Share Posted May 17, 2019 And yet... very similar results around here.There’s more rain in the pipeline this month. And next month too after a dry spell in the middle. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcmcgaffey Posted May 17, 2019 Report Share Posted May 17, 2019 Normal rain at SEA for the entire month of May is actually 1.94 inches. sorry meant to enter 1.9 not 1.6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 17, 2019 Report Share Posted May 17, 2019 There’s more rain in the pipeline this month. And next month too after a dry spell in the middle. Not much. I know how to read the ECMWF surface maps and that takes us almost to the end of the month now. Low resolution, overstated EPS total precip and individual member maps notwithstanding. I don't know much about June yet... but I could see it being wetter than normal. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 17, 2019 Report Share Posted May 17, 2019 Prolonged = more than a week. I don’t see that happening. Nothing to support it. I doubt ridging last more than a week as well. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted May 17, 2019 Report Share Posted May 17, 2019 Had .25” yesterday and .51” so far today. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted May 17, 2019 Author Report Share Posted May 17, 2019 And yet... very similar results around here. Actually running a little warmer than May 2018 in the Seattle area at least. And only slightly wetter. With warmer and drier weather ahead. Seattle is 3 inches behind average on total rainfall for the year so far. Even though the pattern over the pacific has been different than 1 year ago pretty close to the same result has been achieved. We Need to pull the jet stream away from California. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 17, 2019 Report Share Posted May 17, 2019 Seattle is 3 inches behind average on total rainfall for the year so far. Even though the pattern over the pacific has been different than 1 year ago pretty close to the same result has been achieved. We Need to pull the jet stream away from California. The overall pattern has been very different... but the results have been similar since March. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted May 17, 2019 Report Share Posted May 17, 2019 (edited) Edited May 17, 2019 by Farmboy Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted May 17, 2019 Report Share Posted May 17, 2019 I wonder what the point of nice weather, sunny and dry, is when one won’t go outside and enjoy it but instead sit and talk about it on a forum. Lol. Baffles me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 17, 2019 Report Share Posted May 17, 2019 I wonder what the point of nice weather, sunny and dry, is when one won’t go outside and enjoy it but instead sit and talk about it on a forum. Lol. Baffles me. Are you referring to me? I will be outside all day tomorrow. But I have a mobile device that allows me to connect to the internet from anywhere. Really cool technology. You should check it out. Today was not that great... turning nicer now. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 17, 2019 Report Share Posted May 17, 2019 Seattle is 3 inches behind average on total rainfall for the year so far. Even though the pattern over the pacific has been different than 1 year ago pretty close to the same result has been achieved. We Need to pull the jet stream away from California.Seasonality could help there, with time. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Farmboy Posted May 17, 2019 Report Share Posted May 17, 2019 I wonder what the point of nice weather, sunny and dry, is when one won’t go outside and enjoy it but instead sit and talk about it on a forum. Lol. Baffles me.Really. That's why this weather is such a pisser. I'd much rather be outside doing something than sitting around. Quote "Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted May 17, 2019 Report Share Posted May 17, 2019 Nice day! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 17, 2019 Report Share Posted May 17, 2019 And yet... very similar results around here. Actually running a little warmer than May 2018 in the Seattle area at least. And only slightly wetter. With warmer and drier weather ahead.But is it actually similar? Last year there was a sharp N/S precip gradient. This year there is an inverted gradient (w/ respect to climo). So it’s an entirely different pattern. And by consequence, it will evolve different as we head into the heart of summer, as well. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 17, 2019 Report Share Posted May 17, 2019 But is it actually similar? Last year there was a sharp N/S precip gradient. This year there is an inverted gradient (w/ respect to climo). So it’s an entirely different pattern. And by consequence, it will evolve different as we head into the heart of summer, as well. I don't disagree with any of this. I said the pattern is very different overall. But the results are quite similar around here since March. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted May 17, 2019 Report Share Posted May 17, 2019 Much nicer day today... hopefully your friend is still here. Yup! He's in the area until Monday. Happy they're getting a couple nice days after all. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted May 17, 2019 Report Share Posted May 17, 2019 How’s that 2018 repeat going? The pattern is literally almost a perfect inverse to last year across the NH right now. Lol.I never predicted a 2018 repeat. I actually said awhile back that I see this warm season going more like 2016. Said that about 6 weeks ago. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted May 17, 2019 Author Report Share Posted May 17, 2019 I wonder what the point of nice weather, sunny and dry, is when one won’t go outside and enjoy it but instead sit and talk about it on a forum. Lol. Baffles me. Well it’s a free country he’s entitled to do whatever he wants. All you can do is worry about you and what you do. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted May 17, 2019 Report Share Posted May 17, 2019 I doubt ridging last more than a week as well.Problem is, we know "ridging" can be subjective too. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted May 17, 2019 Report Share Posted May 17, 2019 Well it’s a free country he’s entitled to do whatever he wants. All you can do is worry about you and what you do.Are you 12? Sarcasm meter not working? Was just stating an obvious point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted May 17, 2019 Author Report Share Posted May 17, 2019 2 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted May 18, 2019 Report Share Posted May 18, 2019 FWIW, the 12z EPS control run has that ULL diving in from the GOA, similar to some of the GFS runs. There’s a large cluster of ensemble members that also take that route. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 18, 2019 Report Share Posted May 18, 2019 Today turned out pretty nice over yesterday's fog and rain. Really came down overnight. Almost an inch. In the low 60s here. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted May 18, 2019 Report Share Posted May 18, 2019 FWIW, the 12z EPS control run has that ULL diving in from the GOA, similar to some of the GFS runs. There’s a large cluster of ensemble members that also take that route. Yeah... just noticed the control run. Either way it still ends up being a nice weekend. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted May 18, 2019 Report Share Posted May 18, 2019 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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