TT-SEA Posted June 10, 2019 Report Share Posted June 10, 2019 By the time we get to Friday, Shawnigan Lake will have received just 5.25” of rain in the past 4 months. And we are just now getting to what is typically the start of our dry season. There just hasn’t been any notable rainfall since the early February snowstorms. The Cedar Lake station near me has had 19.58 inches of rain since March 1st. Normal is just about 28 inches from March 1 - June 10 (and 30 inches for the March-June period). So... only 70% of normal since the February craziness. But no sign of dryness here yet. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted June 10, 2019 Report Share Posted June 10, 2019 The Cedar Lake station near me has had 19.58 inches of rain since March 1st. Normal is just about 28 inches from March 1 - June 10 (and 30 inches for the March-June period). So... only 70% of normal since the February craziness. But no sign of dryness here yet. we would normally see close to 13.5” during that period. So about 40% of normal Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest CulverJosh Posted June 10, 2019 Report Share Posted June 10, 2019 Should be some good tstorm action here Wednesday per the AFD. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted June 10, 2019 Report Share Posted June 10, 2019 Should be some good tstorm action here Wednesday per the AFD. No real forcing for the lowlands. Foothills action only. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted June 10, 2019 Report Share Posted June 10, 2019 Should be some good tstorm action here Wednesday per the AFD.One of those classic westerly flow warm core setups. Explosive. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest CulverJosh Posted June 10, 2019 Report Share Posted June 10, 2019 No real forcing for the lowlands. Foothills action only.Look at my location. Not Mt Scott anymore. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted June 10, 2019 Report Share Posted June 10, 2019 we would normally see close to 13.5” during that period. So about 40% of normal we’ve had 11.98” of rain on the year total. Hopefully if we get another ULL it actually produces some rain here instead of it all going into SW WA and the PSCZ. However the coast and SW WA were the center of the drought conditions so that’s good that it hit there. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted June 10, 2019 Report Share Posted June 10, 2019 Up to 65 degrees here at 11am. Should be in the upper 70s today, mid 80s tomorrow and upper 80s Wednesday, which should end up being the warmest day of the year here easily. Warmest day so far is May 10th with an 81 degree high. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 10, 2019 Report Share Posted June 10, 2019 For those tracking Wednesday... here is the new 12Z ECMWF for that afternoon: Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted June 10, 2019 Report Share Posted June 10, 2019 I’m betting it’ll be 85-88 here on Tuesday and Wednesday here. Nice thing about living within a mile of the sound during the summer cuts down the heat a few degrees.Yeah, that's one of the advantages of living in Puget Sound. You can get some relief from the major heat the closer you get near water. Olympia looks like it could get to the mid 90s on Wednesday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted June 10, 2019 Report Share Posted June 10, 2019 Should be some good tstorm action here Wednesday per the AFD. Still some mention of that too down in this region. Could be a widespread one for the PNW. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 22 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, 5/15, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted June 10, 2019 Report Share Posted June 10, 2019 No real forcing for the lowlands. Foothills action only. What happened to the good 'ol days when it wasn't so difficult to get a lowland t'storm on or after a hot day? Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 22 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, 5/15, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted June 10, 2019 Report Share Posted June 10, 2019 What happened to the good 'ol days when it wasn't so difficult to get a lowland t'storm on or after a hot day? No forcing No BOOM 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 10, 2019 Report Share Posted June 10, 2019 12Z ECMWF looks poised to crash by day 8... even earlier than the GFS. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted June 10, 2019 Report Share Posted June 10, 2019 No forcing No BOOM Yeah, I get that concept, missed my bigger point 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 22 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, 5/15, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted June 10, 2019 Report Share Posted June 10, 2019 What happened to the good 'ol days when it wasn't so difficult to get a lowland t'storm on or after a hot day? Been a lousy stretch of warm seasons for convection starting with 2015. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jbolin Posted June 10, 2019 Report Share Posted June 10, 2019 Yeah, I get that concept, missed my bigger point No I didn't 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted June 10, 2019 Report Share Posted June 10, 2019 GFS is giving really high CAPE values for my area on Wednesday. Also the model shows rain. E46D4886-5ECA-4DDA-9AF5-B38E20E33D62.jpegThe 12z EURO is also showing high CAPE values west of the Cascades for Wednesday afternoon and evening. Not always a guarantee you'll see thunderstorms though but there's some good potential. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 10, 2019 Report Share Posted June 10, 2019 12z Euro not looking so favorable for Shawnigan’s double barrel heatwave. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 10, 2019 Report Share Posted June 10, 2019 12z Euro not looking so favorable for Shawnigan’s double barrel heatwave. It will be interesting to see what the 12Z EPS shows. The 00Z run was quite warm in the 8-10 day period and would qualify for a double barrel. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 10, 2019 Report Share Posted June 10, 2019 Man, who saw that coming??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted June 10, 2019 Report Share Posted June 10, 2019 The 12z EURO is also showing high CAPE values west of the Cascades for Wednesday afternoon and evening. Not always a guarantee you'll see thunderstorms though but there's some good potential. us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019061012_58_7779_654.png us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019061012_61_7779_654.png us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019061012_62_7779_654.png I didn’t realize there was supposed to be high instability up here in Western WA I thought this was going on in OR. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 10, 2019 Report Share Posted June 10, 2019 Man, who saw that coming??? Censoring again? I reported on the 12Z ECMWF and noted it was a big departure from the last EPS run. It is what it is, Jesse. Can we track the models without personal BS? If you are actually tracking the models... then it will be interesting to see if the EPS jumps on board. Its not about you. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 10, 2019 Report Share Posted June 10, 2019 Shut up. Contrary to your belief, a warm EPS map doesn’t need to be posted as a response to every comment I make about model trends. I have access to the EPS. And of course here I am giving you the negative response you so desire again. Yeah... sure thing buddy. Always about you. So mistreated. I am always out to get you! Dumb. As usual. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted June 10, 2019 Report Share Posted June 10, 2019 This is CRAZY. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted June 10, 2019 Report Share Posted June 10, 2019 For those tracking Wednesday... here is the new 12Z ECMWF for that afternoon: showing 93 at my house. Adding the 3 degrees for the cool bias that’s 96. Even my house close to the sound may get the first 90 degree day of the year. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 10, 2019 Report Share Posted June 10, 2019 Yeah... sure thing buddy. Always about you. So mistreated. I am always out to get you! Dumb. As usual.Deleted my reply. Not even worth it with you. And of course it is precisely what you desire. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 10, 2019 Report Share Posted June 10, 2019 Deleted my reply. Not even worth it with you. And of course it is precisely what you desire. So stupid. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted June 10, 2019 Report Share Posted June 10, 2019 LOL!! 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 10, 2019 Report Share Posted June 10, 2019 12Z EPS did not jump on board with the trough and looks just about the same as the 00Z run... just slightly cooler. Maybe not another full fledged heat wave. The control run looks closer to the ECMWF though at day 10... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted June 10, 2019 Report Share Posted June 10, 2019 12z Euro not looking so favorable for Shawnigan’s double barrel heatwave.I thought that was your double barrel heatwave. I was going with the ULL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted June 10, 2019 Report Share Posted June 10, 2019 I thought that was your double barrel heatwave. I was going with the ULL.Good eye catching the trend of height rises offshore on the ensembles. Still pretty early but it looks like things could end up moving that way. Or endless heat forever. I’d say both are equally likely at this juncture. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 10, 2019 Report Share Posted June 10, 2019 FWIW... the control run does end up with a ULL moving right over the PNW around day 12 and 13. The EPS does not show that... but its also not hot in the day 10-15 period either. Just a weak warm signal out here with much of the central part of the country cooler than normal. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted June 10, 2019 Report Share Posted June 10, 2019 12Z EPS... 10-15 day mean: Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted June 10, 2019 Author Report Share Posted June 10, 2019 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted June 10, 2019 Report Share Posted June 10, 2019 Nws sea Disc. Talking about a small potential for dry lightning thunderstorms in the cascades Wednesday. I love thunderstorms but I definitely am not rooting for that. 2 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted June 10, 2019 Report Share Posted June 10, 2019 Nws sea Disc. Talking about a small potential for dry lightning thunderstorms in the cascades Wednesday. I love thunderstorms but I definitely am not rooting for that. Hopefully towards July we start tapping into some real monsoon stuff. Normally all of my mid and late summer storms drop a ton of rain over by my place. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 22 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, 5/15, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest CulverJosh Posted June 10, 2019 Report Share Posted June 10, 2019 I moved over to the eastside so it will be a record thunderstorm year for over here and lots of good cells sneaking west into the valley. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted June 10, 2019 Report Share Posted June 10, 2019 I moved over to the eastside so it will be a record thunderstorm year for over here and lots of good cells sneaking west into the valley. I would have to get more than 25 days to get record territory at KLMT. One of the years in the 1990's had that many here. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 22 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, 5/15, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted June 10, 2019 Report Share Posted June 10, 2019 Perfection on the Columbia!Currently 82 degrees. 3 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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