June 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW

[TT-SEA]

So first two weeks of July likely for heat wave?

 

 

Not likely.

 

Probably just normal... or a little above normal.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

 

I think this is a myth. Of course UHI makes things more difficult but why "especially warm season" records are out of reach? There are plenty of cities that continue to grow rapidly (including here in Bozeman) yet they still set warm season record lows along with cold season records.

 

I think it's just proof again on how bad the 2010's have been in the PNW. It's gotta flip at some point.

 

 

I strongly disagree. 

 

UHI effects are more pronounced during the warm season. More hours of daylight/surface heating, fewer hours to shed the residual heat. 

 

Not like SLE is busting tons of cold season records either, but in the cold season there is more CAA and occasionally snow cover, not to mention fewer hours of daytime heating. 

 

I would also say the 2010's have been no worse in terms of winters here than the previous decade. Maybe even a little bit better. 

[Phil]

I think this is a myth. Of course UHI makes things more difficult but why "especially warm season" records are out of reach? There are plenty of cities that continue to grow rapidly (including here in Bozeman) yet they still set warm season record lows along with cold season records.

I think it's just proof again on how bad the 2010's have been in the PNW. It's gotta flip at some point.

You might want to research this one. UHI certainly renders some records out of reach, especially in climates where deep boundary layer mixing and advective ventilation is harder to come by (which is more of a summer problem than a winter one).

 

Also, Bozeman is no Seattle/Portland et al. Where is the Bozeman station sited? Specifically, with respect to the surrounding landscape? These are all important questions.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

You might want to research this one. UHI certainly renders some records out of reach, especially in climates where deep boundary layer mixing and advective ventilation is harder to come by (which is more of a summer problem than a winter one).

 

Also, Bozeman is no Seattle/Portland et al. Where is the Bozeman station sited? Specifically, with respect to the surrounding landscape? These are all important questions.

It is pretty obvious. Stations like OLY and EUG still routinely set record lows, even in warm season. SLE, SEA, PDX typically do not even come close on the same days. 

[Jesse]

If the 00z EPS is correct, we will transition out of this western trough/-PNA wave structure during early July, as intraseasonal tropical forcing leaves the EHEM and emerges over the WPAC/warm pool. In which case, a warmer, ridgier pattern is likely to take hold for the West during the first two weeks of July.

 

So, seems there is still not much of a background state present, should this evolution occur. The subseasonal cycles have dominated to this point. Hopefully this is quick enough to prevent any strong Plains/SE ridge from developing this summer. Need to keep those soils saturated.

Let’s get through the very warm last half of June first, then see what happens.

[Guest CulverJosh]

A comfortable 60 degrees here in Bend at 3 oclock. Perfection for June 20th.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

67F at EUG right now.  Pleasant partly cloudy day.

[TacomaWaWx]

63 and mostly cloudy.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Looks like some pattern evolution next week at least. Could be some Tstorm development back from cascades east again.

[Blizzard777]

The 16-lane high speed one-way freeway they’re about to punch in From Enumclaw to Orofino should help move things along. I loves me some good infrastructure.

Perfect freeway to play frogger on!

[seattleweatherguy]

Not likely.

 

Probably just normal... or a little above normal.

Not bad for vacation. When do we expect the next heat wave or are hopefully done with the 90s?

[Omegaraptor]

0.07" at PDX.

 

0.00" at Hillsboro. 

 

[TT-SEA]

Not bad for vacation. When do we expect the next heat wave or are hopefully done with the 90s?

 

There is no way to know this information.   

[TacomaWaWx]

Not bad for vacation. When do we expect the next heat wave or are hopefully done with the 90s?

Should hit 90 next on July 23rd 24th and 26th followed by a brief cool down in to the upper 70s and going to 93 and 95 degrees August 2nd and 3rd.

[Omegaraptor]

Should hit 90 next on July 23rd 24th and 26th followed by a brief cool down in to the upper 70s and going to 93 and 95 degrees August 2nd and 3rd.

 

Accuweather 90 day?

[Blizzard777]

0.07" at PDX.

 

0.00" at Hillsboro. 

 

Tigard it spit a little early this morning but nothing to measure.

Grass is beginning to turn brown

[High Desert Mat?]

Should hit 90 next on July 23rd 24th and 26th followed by a brief cool down in to the upper 70s and going to 93 and 95 degrees August 2nd and 3rd.

Lol. Don’t forget about the record lows for July 16-17 before the heatwave. Don’t just point out the heat that’s coming. That’s too Timish.

[Blizzard777]

There is no way to know this information.

 

D****T Tim!!!

[Front Ranger]

Not a nice day at the market. Windy and cold today. IMG_20190620_103752.jpg IMG_20190620_103844.jpg

Desolate.

[TT-SEA]

70 at SEA again today... 69 at both RNT and BFI.  

[TacomaWaWx]

High temp of 66 so far. No sunshine anymore. Tomorrow and Saturday should be nice weather hopefully early next week we can get more than 0.04”.

[TacomaWaWx]

Accuweather 90 day?

Most accurate forecasts around.

[Front Ranger]

I strongly disagree.

 

UHI effects are more pronounced during the warm season. More hours of daylight/surface heating, fewer hours to shed the residual heat.

 

Not like SLE is busting tons of cold season records either, but in the cold season there is more CAA and occasionally snow cover, not to mention fewer hours of daytime heating.

 

I would also say the 2010's have been no worse in terms of winters here than the previous decade. Maybe even a little bit better.

Easily better.

[Front Ranger]

70 at SEA again today... 69 at both RNT and BFI.

SEA used to be cooler than those spots.

[TT-SEA]

SEA used to be cooler than those spots.

 

 

At 5:45... SEA was 68 and BFI was at 70.  

[TacomaWaWx]

Sprinkling a bit in Tacoma and 62 degrees.

[High Desert Mat?]

Still a nice 53 and partly cloudy skies. Wish I’ve had gotten some of Tim’s rain but I’ll stay content on non heat for the next two weeks. Can I get a forecast for thanksgiving this year? I thought it was going to be a warm one but now I’m debating it.

[jcmcgaffey]

Looks like the arctic intrusion is just west of Hope:)

[jcmcgaffey]

Looks like an arctic blast out there just warmer.

[MossMan]

I have come to the conclusion that BBQ’ing east of the cascades in dry warm 88 degree weather is much more fun than 58 degree dark cloudy conditions over here currently.

.14” on the day.

[Blizzard777]

I have come to the conclusion that BBQ’ing east of the cascades in dry warm 88 degree weather is much more fun than 58 degree dark cloudy conditions over here currently.

.14” on the day.

On the other hand enjoying a soak in the hot tub on the west side at 58* on a dark cloudy day is more fun then conditions on the east side on a sunny dry day at 88*!

[Jesse]

On the other hand enjoying a soak in the hot tub on the west side at 58* on a dark cloudy day is more fun then conditions on the east side on a sunny dry day at 88*!

I don’t think his press-on nails would do very well in the hot tub.

[TT-SEA]

On the other hand enjoying a soak in the hot tub on the west side at 58* on a dark cloudy day is more fun then conditions on the east side on a sunny dry day at 88*!

 

 

On the other hand... we usually have 9 months a year when that "soak in the hot tub" can warm you up.   Something different the other 3 months is nice.

[TacomaWaWx]

Still a nice 53 and partly cloudy skies. Wish I’ve had gotten some of Tim’s rain but I’ll stay content on non heat for the next two weeks. Can I get a forecast for thanksgiving this year? I thought it was going to be a warm one but now I’m debating it.

Supposed to be a rainy 55-57 degree day with rain starting at around 3pm. Christmas and New Years week should be low to mid 50s and lots of sunshine though.

[Kayla]

I strongly disagree. 

 

UHI effects are more pronounced during the warm season. More hours of daylight/surface heating, fewer hours to shed the residual heat. 

 

Not like SLE is busting tons of cold season records either, but in the cold season there is more CAA and occasionally snow cover, not to mention fewer hours of daytime heating. 

 

I would also say the 2010's have been no worse in terms of winters here than the previous decade. Maybe even a little bit better. 

 

My point was more along the lines of the recent lack in record lows in the PNW isn't all due to UHI. That stat isn't as linear in the rest of the country verses the PNW.

 

There just seems to be a lot of larger scale things working against the big PNW cities as of late along with the UHI effect that the rest of the country's big cities suffer from as well.

[TT-SEA]

Rain has blossomed again on the radar in the last 30 minutes and its moving south. The rain does not go away very easily around here.

 

[Kayla]

You might want to research this one. UHI certainly renders some records out of reach, especially in climates where deep boundary layer mixing and advective ventilation is harder to come by (which is more of a summer problem than a winter one).

 

Also, Bozeman is no Seattle/Portland et al. Where is the Bozeman station sited? Specifically, with respect to the surrounding landscape? These are all important questions.

 

Bozeman station is located at MSU which is centrally located within the city and has seen massive growth since the late 1800's when blacktop didn't even exist. In fact, back then there was literally just one building there, Montana Hall. There is now a massive stadium, arena, parking lots and parking garages and buildings to support a rapidly growing student population of ~15,000. There is plenty of UHI effect going on here as well.  

[VancouverIslandSouth]

A student on a field trip in Sooke was killed by a falling tree today. Troughs kill.

 

Scary stuff, turns out the mother is in my wife's friend circle; can't imagine how the family feels right now.

[TT-SEA]

Beautiful sunset in progress...

[Front Ranger]

At 5:45... SEA was 68 and BFI was at 70.

SEA used to be warmer than that spot.