June 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW

[GHweatherChris]

To prove that SEA's numbers are 100% legit. Warmest anomalies in the region be damned, other stations in the area are close in temperature.

#narratives

[TacomaWaWx]

59 and mostly sunny at 12pm. Beautiful first day of astrological summer.

[TT-SEA]

Too bad it’s not going to happen. It’s dry season and the rain shown is all drizzle.

 

I would personally be extremely surprised if either the PDX or Hillsboro stations record over half an inch of rain from now until the month’s end.

 

 

This is just wrong.   Its not drizzle.   The ECMWF shows numerous bands of organized precip and probably some convection next week.

 

And the 12Z run is even wetter than the 00Z run.

 

[TT-SEA]

#narratives

 

#context

 

The only way to derive the true temp at SEA is corroborate it with the other official stations very close to SEA.

 

If RNT is 70 and BFI is 70 and SEA is 70... then SEA is probably actually 52.

[ShawniganLake]

Clear blue skies and 70. Feels pretty summery today

[Frontal Snowsquall]

If the 00z EPS is correct, we will transition out of this western trough/-PNA wave structure during early July, as intraseasonal tropical forcing leaves the EHEM and emerges over the WPAC/warm pool. In which case, a warmer, ridgier pattern is likely to take hold for the West during the first two weeks of July.

 

So, seems there is still not much of a background state present, should this evolution occur. The subseasonal cycles have dominated to this point. Hopefully this is quick enough to prevent any strong Plains/SE ridge from developing this summer. Need to keep those soils saturated.

So first two weeks of July likely for heat wave?

I hope your right. I got the whole first week of July off to celebrate Independence Day so I'm hoping for as much sunny weather as possible. The 12z EURO shows warmer weather return just in time for July.

 

I think it's likely we see a heatwave during the first half of July. From an anomaly perspective, I think it will be the hottest part of this summer. I'm still going for a cooler than normal August.

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

NF John Day and the Strawberries are still on our list. Have passed through there but have never explored too much.

 

They had a huge fire in the Strawberries a few years back, but the topography kept it out of the Strawberry and Little Strawberry Lake basins. 

 

Here I am casting a line at Little Strawberry Lake. 

 

[TT-SEA]

Clear blue skies and 70. Feels pretty summery today

 

 

Therein lies the difference in perception of June troughing... its mostly cloudy and in the upper 50s here.    Vancouver Island and anywhere near the water is heavily favored for sunshine in this type of pattern.    Of course its not unusual to have troughing in June.   But the average high out here today is 72 and we will not get even close.  I would enjoy June troughing more if I lived in your area and you would probably enjoy it less if you lived out here.

 

[TT-SEA]

I hope your right. I got the whole first week of July off to celebrate Independence Day so I'm hoping for as much sunny weather as possible. The 12z EURO shows warmer weather return just in time for July.

 

I think it's likely we see a heatwave during the first half of July. From an anomaly perspective, I think it will be the hottest part of this summer. I'm still going for a cooler than normal August.

 

 

 

I would be very skeptical of any run showing hot weather... the EPS is not showing anything close to a heat wave in early July.

 

[Omegaraptor]

No significant rain has fell on the Fourth of July at PDX since 1998. There was technically 0.01” in 2008 that fell at 4AM, but not many people would have noticed it.

 

When was the last time significant rain fell on the Fourth in the Puget Sound area, as well as other parts of the PNW? NWS says 2010 for Seattle.

[Front Ranger]

You are in a surly mood today!

 

Its just to provide context... or some indication of how far off SEA is in reality since there are 2 other official stations very close.    I am guessing SEA runs 15-20 degrees too warm usually.  

 

Not surly at all, feeling quite chipper actually.

 

It's not that SEA's sensor is inaccurate, it's simply that they run exaggerated warm anomalies. Comparing to nearby stations says nothing about that. 

[Front Ranger]

lol this has been one of the more normal June’s of the last 5 years probably.

 

Still pretty darn warm to date. 

 

[TT-SEA]

Not surly at all, feeling quite chipper actually.

 

It's not that SEA's sensor is inaccurate, it's simply that they run exaggerated warm anomalies. Comparing to nearby stations says nothing about that.

I never disputed that. Just providing some context about how much exaggeration there is at SEA.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It almost rained last year on the 4th, but the system kind of fell apart as it moved inland. 

[TT-SEA]

It almost rained last year on the 4th, but the system kind of fell apart as it moved inland. 

 

 

We had some sideways, cold rain on the morning of the 4th in 2016 here.

 

Last year was pretty nice with a high of 85 and filtered sun.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS also says there will not be a heat wave in July... here is the 10-15 day mean.

 

 

[TacomaWaWx]

Still pretty darn warm to date.

 

MonthTDeptWRCC-NW.png

Yeah it’s been average to a bit above average so far overall not bad.

[Front Ranger]

I never disputed that. Just providing some context about how much exaggeration there is at SEA.

Other stations temps don't provide context for SEA's anomalies. They are as relevant as the temps in Denver.

[TT-SEA]

Other stations temps don't provide context for SEA's anomalies. They are as relevant as the temps in Denver.

 

 

Yeah... sure.

 

RNT is basically within sight of SEA... and BFI is almost in sight as well.   They are in the same area.    Both are official stations.    They can provide corroboration and also highlight the UHI effect at SEA.  

 

How is having 2 other official stations just a couple miles away not context?

 

[Front Ranger]

Yeah... sure.

 

RNT is basically within sight of SEA... and BFI is almost in sight as well.   They are in the same area.    Both are official stations.    They can provide corroboration and also highlight the UHI effect at SEA.  

 

How is having another official station just a couple miles away (RNT) not context?

 

 

Because anomalies are based on the historical temperature records at a specific location. Current temps at other nearby stations have nothing to do with anomalies.

[TT-SEA]

Because anomalies are based on the historical temperature records at a specific location. Current temps at other nearby stations have nothing to do with anomalies.

 

 

I understand that.

 

But on any given day... you can get a good idea of how much exaggeration there is at SEA by looking at the other stations within a few miles for corroboration.  

[seattleweatherguy]

12Z EPS also says there will not be a heat wave in July... here is the 10-15 day mean.

 

 

Interesting. Does the eps show any hot weather for August? How reliable is the eps vs the ecwf and gfs?

[Front Ranger]

I understand that.

 

But on any given day... you can get a good idea of how much exaggeration there is at SEA by looking at the other stations within a few miles for corroboration.  

 

Again, current temps at other locations does not tell you anything about how much exaggeration SEA has when it comes to anomalies. Those are based purely on historical temperatures at SEA - the temps at other stations are completely irrelevant, because they don't play a role in anomalies.

 

It doesn't matter if SEA is within a degree or two of Renton these days. SEA used to be one of the cooler locations in Seattle metro, now it's one of the warmest.

[TT-SEA]

Again, current temps at other locations does not tell you anything about how much exaggeration SEA has when it comes to anomalies. Those are based purely on historical temperatures at SEA - the temps at other stations are completely irrelevant, because they don't play a role in anomalies.

 

It doesn't matter if SEA is within a degree or two of Renton these days. SEA used to be one of the cooler locations in Seattle metro, now it's one of the warmest.

So 1-2 degrees right?

[TacomaWaWx]

Interesting. Does the eps show any hot weather for August? How reliable is the eps vs the ecwf and gfs?

shows an early August heatwave than cooler than average temps through the rest of the month despite a slight warm up into above average temps the 23rd-25th then cooler than average temps through the first half of September. Should be a strong trough following the late August heatwave with record cold temps August 30th and September 2nd.

[TT-SEA]

Interesting. Does the eps show any hot weather for August? How reliable is the eps vs the ecwf and gfs?

You often seem to ask questions that cannot be answered. The EPS goes out 15 days. And 15 days is a crapshoot. August is nothing but a coin flip right now... you can make your own forecast.

 

If they invent a weather model that can accurately predict weather 2 months away... you will hear all about it here first!

 

Don't hold your breath.

[TT-SEA]

shows an early August heatwave than cooler than average temps through the rest of the month despite a slight warm up into above average temps the 23rd-25th then cooler than average temps through the first half of September. Should be a strong trough following the late August heatwave with record cold temps August 30th and September 2nd.

 

Does that cold front come through at 4:15 or 4:30 p.m. on 8/30?  I am seeing conflicting data.   I am going with 4:22 and 15 seconds for my house.   But that could be off by 15 seconds either way.  

[TacomaWaWx]

Does that cold front come through at 4:15 or 4:30 p.m. on 8/30? I am seeing conflicting data. I am going with 4:22 and 15 seconds for my house. But that could be off by 15 seconds either way.

should swing through 8/30 at 4:21 and 56 seconds exactly.

[TT-SEA]

I was really hoping the upcoming trough would kick out by the end of next week as we rented a house and boat on Ohop Lake for their fireworks show next weekend and would love some hot weather. 

 

Buuuuuut, doesn't look like that's going to happen. #SummerIsGone

 

I have never heard of that lake... had to look it up.   

 

Yeah... weather looks less than ideal for that.  

[jakeinthevalley]

Yes, unfortunately.

 

We were planning to make a trip to Steens Mountain this weekend, but I was surprised to see that the road to the summit is still blocked by snow. It would be our first time there, so may wait until later in July when it melts out so we can get the whole experience. I was surprised to see that, though. Has definitely been a different world on the east side this year.

Wait until late September/early October when the aspen trees start to turn. Mosquitoes will be long gone and the weather should be perfect.

[Omegaraptor]

What does Accuweather 90 day say about August?

 

And September, for that matter.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, it's relatively unknown besides those who live along the shores and some locals in Eatonville, which keeps the boat traffic low. A lot easier to tube/ski/etc.

 

Still time for things to change weather-wise, I guess. Probably just wishful thinking for the most part.

Looks gorgeous when the weather is nice...

 

[TacomaWaWx]

68 and mostly sunny here. Beautiful Friday afternoon.

[Front Ranger]

So 1-2 degrees right?

Yep, on average that's how much warmer it gets at SEA now compared to stations that have seen little or no UHI increase.

 

Just based on the historical records we do have for the Seattle area, I would guess SEA used to run maybe .5 to 1 degree cooler in the summer than Renton. Now it probably runs .5 to 1 degree warmer on average. Day to day variation, of course.

[MossMan]

12Z EPS also says there will not be a heat wave in July... here is the 10-15 day mean.

 

 

But I thought we were all going to burn up and die with endless heat and massive droughts and famine and smoke...this summer. What are the fear-mongers going to talk about now?

[TT-SEA]

72 at SEA... 72 at BFI and 71 at RNT.

 

Places closest to the water had more sun today.

[Requiem]

Hey, can someone tell me the weather forecast for Portland on 7/25/19? In regards to heat and exact timing of any possible precipitation? Any possible monster troughs that week? 

[TT-SEA]

Hey, can someone tell me the weather forecast for Portland on 7/25/19? In regards to heat and exact timing of any possible precipitation? Any possible monster troughs that week? 

 

 

81.456764 degrees for a high and 59.234564 for a low.

 

Might be off by 1/10,000th of a degree either way.

[Omegaraptor]

81.456764 degrees for a high and 59.234564 for a low.

 

Might be off by 1/10,000th of a degree either way.

Interesting that the Euro shows that. GFS is showing a warmer solution with 86.491037°F for a high and 61.889132°F for a low.

[Front Ranger]

But I thought we were all going to burn up and die with endless heat and massive droughts and famine and smoke...this summer. What are the fear-mongers going to talk about now?

 

You mean the people who pointed out the factual correct drought?