June 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW

[seattleweatherguy]

Got a new iPhone XR. Amazing so far, but seems to charge slow. At least we get some rain this week

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Got a new iPhone XR. Amazing so far, but seems to charge slow. At least we get some rain this week

XS Max is amazing too. Face lock is crazy but cool.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Nice morning in the s valley. Looks like we are at 62F and partly cloudy.

[TacomaWaWx]

56 and cloudy again at 10:30. Only about 2 hours of partly sunny skies yesterday and cold temp for a high only 63. Should be another cool day today.

[TT-SEA]

56 and cloudy again at 10:30. Only about 2 hours of partly sunny skies yesterday and cold temp for a high only 63. Should be another cool day today.

 

 

Perfectly normal... for Juneau in late June.    

 

Average high in Juneau right now is 63.  

[TacomaWaWx]

Perfectly normal... for Juneau in late June.

 

Average high in Juneau right now is 63.

I wouldn’t mind living somewhere in SE Alaska no farther north than anchorage though at that point it’s just too cold and nowheresville in my opinion. SE Alaska right along the gulf would be pretty cool.

[TT-SEA]

I wouldn’t mind living somewhere in SE Alaska no farther north than anchorage though at that point it’s just too cold and nowheresville in my opinion. SE Alaska right along the gulf would be pretty cool.

 

 

At least Fairbanks has consistent summer weather... 

 

[TacomaWaWx]

At least Fairbanks has consistent summer weather...

 

Interesting how they’re having nicer weather than us haha. It’ll return to warmer drier weather in a couple weeks at the most here. It’s only a guess obviously but there will probably be some decent stretches of nice warm weather in mid/late July or August. Only a guess though.

[TT-SEA]

Interesting how they’re having nicer weather than us haha. It’ll return to warmer drier weather in a couple weeks at the most here. It’s only a guess obviously but there will probably be some decent stretches of nice warm weather in mid/late July or August. Only a guess though.

 

Obviously there will be nice stretches in July and August... that is a given.  

[TacomaWaWx]

Obviously there will be nice stretches in July and August... that is a given.

only one way to know for certain...120 day eps forecast.

[Omegaraptor]

Euro shows ridging in the long run, and pretty much every GFS ensemble member shows ridging in the long run. Only the FV3-GFS operational is trying to force in troughing.

[Jesse]

Perfectly normal... for Juneau in late June.

 

Average high in Juneau right now is 63.

SEA hit 66 yesterday. That isn’t too outlandish for late June, pretty normal fare for their climate. The last several warm seasons have skewed expectations.

[Jesse]

12z Euro seems to keep things a lot troughier through next weekend than previous runs. Would be nice if that held up.

[TT-SEA]

SEA hit 66 yesterday. That isn’t too outlandish for late June, pretty normal fare for the climate. The last several warm seasons have skewed expectations.

 

 

You always say this and its worn out.    You mock people who say summer does not start until July 5th... and you say everyone has ridiculously high expectations.   

 

We had a stretch of 10 days in late June last year when it was cloudy and cool.    And we had a 10-day stretch like that in mid June of 2016 and 2017 here as well.   Everyone around here seems to know this is very common and expects it.    Does not mean we have to love it though.   

[Jesse]

We had a stretch of 10 days in late June last year when it was cloudy and cool. And we had a 10 day stretch like that in mid June of 2016 and 2017 here as well. Everyone around here seems to know this is very common and expects it.

Juneau.

[TT-SEA]

Juneau.

 

Normal high right now in the Snoqualmie Valley based on 121 years of historical data is around 72 or 73.   

 

Obviously highs in the low 60s are well below our normal here... even though it happens every June.     

[TT-SEA]

12z Euro seems to keep things a lot troughier through next weekend than previous runs. Would be nice if that held up.

 

Would be nice if it did not hold up.

 

But the EPS has been showing this... so I suspected the operational run might trend more troughy.   

 

Ironically... the reason for the change from the 00Z run is that ULL coming down from the GOA is farther west on the new run.   So the ECMWF cut-off bias is working in your favor right now which is why it probably will not be mentioned.  

[Omegaraptor]

Does this mean more thunderstorm chances?

[TT-SEA]

Does this mean more thunderstorm chances?

 

No.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Jesse]

The downward bump for next weekend was also noticeable on the 12z GFS ensemble chart.

[Phil]

[TT-SEA]

The 12z EURO shows some warmer weather return just in time for Independence Day. Good weather to do BBQ.

 

 

 

 

Control runs looks just like the operational run.

 

But the 12Z EPS is completely different... the ULL does not cut off way to the west early next so it looks much closer to normal and not even close to a heat wave for us around the 4th.

 

Here is the 12Z EPS mean 500mb map for the 4th of July...

 

[MossMan]

[TacomaWaWx]

61 and cloudy at 1pm. Pretty similar to yesterday.

[ShawniganLake]

Another sunny and windy day here. 7th consecutive day with gusts in the 20 to 40 mph range.

[ShawniganLake]

Streamflows are very low across Vancouver Island. Red indicates below 20% of median and brown below 50%

 

 

[seattleweatherguy]

XS Max is amazing too. Face lock is crazy but cool.

Does yours charge slow? Takes a bit to go from 97 to 100 battery charge? Kind of like our cool stretch right now as we head into July

[TigerWoodsLibido]

A beautiful 73F with blue skies and sunshine for the s valley. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Does yours charge slow? Takes a bit to go from 97 to 100 battery charge? Kind of like our cool stretch right now as we head into July

 

Yes it takes a while and the battery lasts a long time too.

[Deweydog]

My phone is at 85%.

[GHweatherChris]

My phone is at 85%.

My android phone is at 92%! I should probabaly plug it in...

[TacomaWaWx]

Still no sunshine here at 3pm. 62 degrees.

[TT-SEA]

Have not watered the lawn once this year yet... sort of wish it would dry out a little so it stops growing so fast.

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Off to Bend again tonight for an overnighter with my GF as she work tomorrow over there.  Can't wait to scout places for potential freeway lanes to go. 

[Phil]

Crossing my fingers that the WPAC forcing pulse next month might be quick enough to not have a catastrophic effect on the wavetrain.

 

If so, maybe troughing returns just in time for my trip out to the BC coast. I haven’t experienced legitimate summer troughing in the PNW yet, and I really want to know why Tim seems to compare it to the rising of Lucifer.

[High Desert Mat?]

My phone is at 85%.

54%

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Crossing my fingers that the WPAC forcing pulse next month might be quick enough to not have a catastrophic effect on the wavetrain.

 

If so, maybe troughing returns just in time for my trip out to the BC coast. I haven’t experienced legitimate summer troughing in the PNW yet, and I really want to know why Tim seems to compare it to the rising of Lucifer.

 

He's cast the line let's see if Tim takes the bait...

[Phil]

It’s still kind of early, but the complete absence of the notorious Baffin Island vortex for the first time since 2012 (and 2016 to a lesser degree) is quite noteworthy.

 

I made a post a few weeks ago regarding the correlation between anomalous drops in the northern annular mode during the month of May, and the subsequent tendency in the North American wavetrain in JJA (especially July and August). Thus far, the tendency towards ridging up there fits the structure of the June correlation coefficient compiled for years analogous to 2019 (deeply negative May NAM).

[Phil]

He's cast the line let's see if Tim takes the bait...

Nooo. Why’d you burn me, man?