July 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Looks like the rain shadow is sticking to the east of here for now. We don't see systems like this in July very often, it has the look of something we'd typically see in the fall.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

These NE winds seem to be doing the trick, it's pouring out there now. Reminds me of the Dec 9, 2016 overrunning system that produced a decent overrunning snowfall.

 

Seems like the system may be a little further east than the late shift in the models would have had it.

[Front Ranger]

One of the NWS Twitter pages said that we haven't seen a straight up Pacific storm in summer like this one since 2007. So yes, it is indeed unusual.

 

This might not be the only one, either. Summer just refuses to start this year.

 

Well, there was that mid June event...

[Omegaraptor]

Radar shows some action on the Kitsap Peninsula.

[TacomaWaWx]

Radar shows some action on the Kitsap Peninsula.

Have had 0.15” of rain so far here to the SE.

[seattleweatherguy]

Well, there was that mid June event...

The latest 00z gfs on metro star shows a ridge with much more heat/warmer temps for whatever that’s worth. Near the end of the run

[SilverFallsAndrew]

0.16" of rain today. Not bad. I remember much rainier days in July. Even in the not too distant past. There was decent rain in July 2011 here, and quite a bit of rain even in some parts of the valley on July 12, 2009. Then that wicked July trough either in 96 or 97'. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Looks like I’ll finish 7/9/19 with 0.19” of rainfall. Looks like some more still to come probably in an hour or 2. Currently sitting at 0.30” of rainfall for the month of July.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1998-99 wasn't really excellent, unless you're talking about above 3500'. In the lowlands, it rained literally nonstop for 20 straight weeks aside from the one merciful five day stretch of arctic air.

 

I remember many days with chunky rain that winter. 

 

That December 1998 arctic outbreak featured some off the charts CAA for our region. Sunny days with no snow cover and highs in the low-mid 20s. The 25/14 followed by a high cloud capped 22/12 at SLE on 12 20-21 have not been matched since. 

[GHweatherChris]

Left Chelan today at 1pm and it was 85 degrees with blazing sun but very humid.

 

Dropped down the pass towards Tims' place and RAIN. Effing RAIN!

 

Sheesh!

It has been cloudy in that area as well, in case you weren't aware.

[Phil]

The latest 00z gfs on metro star shows a ridge with much more heat/warmer temps for whatever that’s worth. Near the end of the run

Thankfully, the GEFS disagrees and keeps the troughing and cool weather in place.

 

Need to keep this pattern going until at least August 5th.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Noticed some models are now showing ENSO nearing a weak Nina this winter. Definitely looking like neutral and maybe even cold neutral is very likely.

[Phil]

Noticed some models are now showing ENSO nearing a weak Nina this winter. Definitely looking like neutral and maybe even cold neutral is very likely.

Too much WPAC heat for a true -ENSO, IMO.

 

If the niño fails, the end result will probably be a modoki type look with a cool EPAC and warm WPAC.

[Phil]

Tim hasn’t posted an EPS map in at least a week.

 

I wonder why that is?

[Jesse]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Too much WPAC heat for a true -ENSO, IMO.

 

If the niño fails, the end result will probably be a modoki type look with a cool EPAC and warm WPAC.

 

The Nino is already gone. 

[TT-SEA]

Tim hasn’t posted an EPS map in at least a week.

 

I wonder why that is?

 

 

I don't think you ever post maps unless they are ridiculously troughy over an area of the country that is 3,000 miles away from you.   I wonder why that is?   

 

The EPS has been basically the same from run to run.    And in this pattern it all comes down to surface details locally at this time of year... and the EPS can't really give us much help with that.    

 

Here is the 00Z EPS for the middle of next week... looks decent for us but the devil is the details.

 

 

 

It is hinting at an actual western ridge scenario starting to develop in the 10-15 day period now.    Too early to know if that will stick.

[TT-SEA]

It’s because he just reports what the models are showing, good or bad.

 

 

I always talk about the weather that is happening in my area... good or bad.    That is a fact.   

 

And I tend to post maps of things that interest me... as I have said many, many times.     Just like everyone else.   

[TT-SEA]

Only .15 here overnight.

 

But .19 at SEA and .36 at OLM.

 

Focus was definitely to the west of my area.

[jcmcgaffey]

It seems our little area in north Seattle has been the bullseye for rain lately no matter where the flow is coming from. Coming upon 1/2” of rain since yesterday evening. Don’t have any weather records for my specific area but this has to be close to a record wet July for my area. Again the last 5-6months have been a crazy microclimate lately compared to the rest of the area. Normally I am one of the driest in the area but has been the complete opposite lately.

[TT-SEA]

It seems our little area in north Seattle has been the bullseye for rain lately no matter where the flow is coming from. Coming upon 1/2” of rain since yesterday evening. Don’t have any weather records for my specific area but this has to be close to a record wet July for my area. Again the last 5-6months have been a crazy microclimate lately compared to the rest of the area. Normally I am one of the driest in the area but has been the complete opposite lately.

 

 

Definitely not showing up on the anomaly map.   Maybe your rain gauge is not measuring correctly?

 

[TT-SEA]

Have to give credit to Phil on the big picture... he said all spring that this summer would feature a more significant moisture influx compared to recent years but would probably still not be a cold summer.    That seems to be what is happening.

[ShawniganLake]

It seems our little area in north Seattle has been the bullseye for rain lately no matter where the flow is coming from. Coming upon 1/2” of rain since yesterday evening. Don’t have any weather records for my specific area but this has to be close to a record wet July for my area. Again the last 5-6months have been a crazy microclimate lately compared to the rest of the area. Normally I am one of the driest in the area but has been the complete opposite lately.

What type of rain gauge do you have?

[The Swamp]

Have to give credit to Phil on the big picture... he said all spring that this summer would feature a more significant moisture influx compared to recent years but would probably still not be a cold summer. That seems to be what is happening.

I don’t give him any credit. He throws out so much crap some of it is bound to be close.

[TT-SEA]

I don’t give him any credit. He throws out so much crap some of it is bound to be close.

 

 

He was quite consistent on that prediction.  

[TT-SEA]

Total rain overnight per the SEA NWS...

 

[ShawniganLake]

Low of 62F at PDX

[jcmcgaffey]

Definitely not showing up on the anomaly map. Maybe your rain gauge is not measuring correctly?

 

what does that map show since Sunday? That map generalizes the area and does not pick up on most of the small microclimates. It is still accurate for the general area but lately I have noticed it hasn’t been accurate for my area at all with the persistent pattern we have been in. I can voice the rain gauge is working as it has been raining pretty steadily most of the night and I went onto wunderground and the nearby rain gauges have been similar on most days including today.

[TT-SEA]

what does that map show since Sunday? That map generalizes the area and does not pick up on most of the small microclimates. It is still accurate for the general area but lately I have noticed it hasn’t been accurate for my area at all with the persistent pattern we have been in. I can voice the rain gauge is working as it has been raining pretty steadily most of the night and I went onto wunderground and the nearby rain gauges have been similar on most days including today.

 

 

I know from experience that those anomaly maps can paint with an overly-broad brush.    Corroborating with other stations in the area is also good.

 

Here is the last week and this does not even include the rain last night yet...

 

[Phil]

Interesting..the tropical circulation doesn’t scream “western troughing” at all to me. Warm pool forcing with an off-equator center (though it’s a wave-2 structure, which doesn’t run clean correlations all the time) would favor offshore troughing and a 4CH flex. Seems the structure of the extratropical circulation/AAM budget is driving this pattern as much as anything.

 

[jcmcgaffey]

Total rain overnight per the SEA NWS...

 

This shows what I am talking about.  Attached is my neighbor's weather station which I have been using and is also posted on the wunderground map.  I have checked the other credible nearby stations and they show the same.  That is just from this morning and does not include last night which I can confirm as it was raining most of the night. Again, I know it is semantics and most people don't care, it is just something I have been noticing lately but to be honest do not have a ton of data to back up other than some of the local weather stations.  We also had almost an 1" of rain Sunday night into Monday.

[Phil]

Then, week-2 a transition to more EHEM-based forcing occurs (still not a clean wavenumber) which would typically enhance the Aleutian High/western trough to some extent, but the AAM/wavetrain cycle looks somewhat less favorable for such a pattern.

 

Interesting. Week-2 could go either way, I guess? I’m surprised the pattern isn’t warmer now, but could there be a warm interlude at some point? Delayed-and-shortened-but-not-denied warm-up? Would be the opposite of my initial prediction of the monthly pattern progression.

 

[Phil]

The Nino is already gone.

By the official ONI definition, yeah. But there’s still warm OHC in the West-Pacific that, in spite of shoaling, could make a -ENSO harder to achieve. Divergence setting up between 140-170E is arguably pre-niño, opening the western IPWP up to potential WWB activity.

 

So maybe we end up with warm WPAC/cool EPAC with the downwelling easterly shear next spring opening up a more favorable conduit for El Niño inception for winter 2020/21? Hard to imagine a skipped niño at this point in the solar/IPWP cycle, but I guess it technically happened in 1976 (though there was a large climate shift across the NPAC domain).

[Phil]

[GHweatherChris]

[TT-SEA]

Tim is very stressed out right now.

 

 

Chris is obsessed with Tim... as usual.   <_>

[TT-SEA]

No low clouds here this morning... just broken mid level clouds and some peaks of sun and 63.

 

Not sure how active it will be today.     Radar does not show anything upstream right now... its all focused to the west.   But HRRR does show some action this afternoon out here.

 

[GHweatherChris]

Chris is obsessed with Tim... as usual. <_>

Just posting what I see, good or bad.

[TT-SEA]

Just posting what I see, good or bad.

 

Maybe focus on the weather and not other members?    

[GHweatherChris]

Maybe focus on the weather and not other members?

No real weather to focus on currently, just a little rain, thanks for the suggestion though. Hope your sadness goes away soon!!