July 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Omegaraptor]

Partly sunny morning. 62 at HIO.

[TacomaWaWx]

The way the forecast is looking, we may not even crack 75 degrees in Tacoma the next 10 days. Gfs still painting central and south B.C. coast with 2”+ of rain and western WA with 0.5”+ with more in the mountains.

[ShawniganLake]

The way the forecast is looking, we may not even crack 75 degrees in Tacoma the next 10 days. Gfs still painting central and south B.C. coast with 2”+ of rain and western WA with 0.5”+ with more in the mountains.

A lot of days look close to 75. So you might get 0 or you might see a bunch crack 75.

[TacomaWaWx]

A lot of days look close to 75. So you might get 0 or you might see a bunch crack 75.

a lot seem to be in the 72-75 area. Definitely won’t be seeing any 80s. The warmest day so far this month was the 1st at 77 since then the 4th was the only day to crack 70 degrees. Probably will hit 70 today.

Definitely will be running the coolest average July since 2016, maybe even since 2012 if it continues past the next 10 days. Also could be the wettest since 2012.

[ShawniganLake]

12z ensemble has a strong signal for a deep trough just after mid month.

[jakeinthevalley]

Hoping for some rain down here tomorrow. Got a smokin' deal on a new car camping tent at a local thrift store. Looks like it was maybe used once. All set up in the backyard and want to check it's weather proof abilities before sealing the seams.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Pls keep this troughing going thru Feb, Mother Nature. Persistent like that Greenland vortex until this year.

[Jesse]

12z ensemble has a strong signal for a deep trough just after mid month.

Could drop your area down to around a degree above average.

[Omegaraptor]

12z ensemble has a strong signal for a deep trough just after mid month.

Just checked the long range ensembles. Looks full on spring-like.

 

But then again, it’s still 9-13 days out or so. Been noticing disagreement between operational and ensembles for a while now. Let’s wait and see how things pan out.

[TT-SEA]

Total through Wednesday afternoon...

 

 

 

Update from the 12Z run... also running out a little further through Thursday morning.

 

[Jesse]

Update from the 12Z run... also running out a little further through Thursday morning.

 

Cut back amounts a little down here. Appears we are close to the margin between higher and lower totals, so a slight shift could bring higher totals down here again.

[Omegaraptor]

Cut back amounts a little down here. Appears we are close to the margin between higher and lower totals, so a slight shift could bring higher totals down here again.

It slightly raised amounts in Eastern Washington County / Tualatin Valley. Every once in a while, our location can actually be pretty cool.

 

Looks like tomorrow’s rain will be mostly drizzle though.

[Jesse]

It slightly raised amounts in Eastern Washington County / Tualatin Valley. Every once in a while, our location can actually be pretty cool.

 

Looks like tomorrow’s rain will be mostly drizzle though.

I sort of like drizzle sometimes. Adds mood.

[Jesse]

Seems the Euro gets pushed around by the GFS a lot more since the upgrade.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is basically dry and pleasant from Thursday afternoon into early next week.   

[Jesse]

12Z ECMWF is basically dry and pleasant from Thursday afternoon into early next week.

Could be a pattern where the marine layer slips in from time to time again, but maybe not as persistently cloudy up there.

[TT-SEA]

Could be a pattern where the marine layer slips in from time to time again, but maybe not as persistently cloudy up there.

 

 

Appear so.  

[TT-SEA]

Partly sunny here now and 64.    That is about as warm as it got yesterday.

[GHweatherChris]

It is cloudy here, but it is not dark at all, very pleasant 65 degrees and bright outside!

[Deweydog]

But the blob??????

[MossMan]

But the blob??????

I heard that this blob is similar to the 1949 blob.

[Timmy Supercell]

I heard that this blob is similar to the 1949 blob.

 

First thing I immediately thought of was January 1950 after reading that. Should I expect 5 feet of snow next Jan?

[Omegaraptor]

I heard that this blob is similar to the 1949 blob.

You know what’s interesting?

 

Liquid precipitation was recorded in January, February, March, April, May, June, and July of 1949.

 

Liquid precipitation was also recorded in January, February, March, April, May, June, and July of 2019.

 

Even more interesting is that 1949 had a drier than normal January, wetter than normal February, and a drier than normal March, just like in 2019!

 

Possible 1949-50 analog next winter? The parallels are pretty astounding.

[MossMan]

You know what’s interesting?

 

Liquid precipitation was recorded in January, February, March, April, May, June, and July of 1949.

 

Liquid precipitation was also recorded in January, February, March, April, May, June, and July of 2019.

 

Even more interesting is that 1949 had a drier than normal January, wetter than normal February, and a drier than normal March, just like in 2019!

 

Possible 1949-50 analog next winter? The parallels are pretty astounding.

The big one is coming!

[Deweydog]

The big one is coming!

CNN says so!!!!

[Timmy Supercell]

CNN says so!!!!

 

CNN says tons of things........ 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

I doubt 49-50 will be an ANALog but we'll see.  We aren't going to get clubbed down here I can tell you that much. It would be nice to have a really good regional Arctic blast like 1990, but 29 years and counting is pretty indicative of us not seeing one anytime soon or maybe ever again here.

 

Sadly, I'm leaning towards a dud winter at least for Benton, Lane, and Linn Counties.  We are due for one and it's been a great decade. It's PDX and esp Washington and Yamhill counties' turn to score some goodies.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Update from the 12Z run... also running out a little further through Thursday morning.

 

The areas that need the most rain still looking good to get decent amounts.

[Jesse]

Pretty interesting to watch the IR satellite with 500mb heights. You can easily see how the big block over Alaska that’s responsible for their recent warmth is suppressing tomorrow’s system southward.

 

 

https://a.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?sat_500+9

[Jesse]

73 with partly sunny skies and a light breeze currently. Beautiful day.

[Jesse]

12Z EPS looks trougher than the operational in the 6-10 day range (next weekend onward).

[seattleweatherguy]

12Z EPS looks trougher than the operational in the 6-10 day range (next weekend onward).

so rain and cool for the week of the 14th?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Completely sunny afternoon in the mid-valley with a high headed towards about 80. 

[Omegaraptor]

so rain and cool for the week of the 14th?

We don’t know yet.

[TT-SEA]

7th day in a row that the central Cascades and the adjacent foothills and lowlands have been the completely cloudy.     The clouds are much more broken in the foothills and mountains to the north and to the south.    And the clouds actually get thicker as the day goes on.   It starts to break up and then totally fills in immediately.

 

 

Obviously this happens from time to time... but very rarely does it happen for a week straight.    And even more rare in July.   There was nothing this persistent even in 2010 and 2011.

 

Then rain moves in tomorrow afternoon... so we miss out on the nice days in between that other places get.   

[Jesse]

7th day in a row that the central Cascades and the adjacent foothills and lowlands have been the completely cloudy. The clouds are much more broken in the foothills and mountains to the north and to the south. And the clouds actually get thicker as the day goes on. It starts to break up and then totally fills in immediately.

 

Obviously this happens from time to time... but very rarely does it happen for a week straight. And even more rare in July. There was nothing this persistent even in 2010 and 2011.

 

Then rain moves in tomorrow afternoon... so we miss out on the nice days in between that other places get.

Man you sure picked a bad place to live for a sun lover.

 

#nosympathy

[TT-SEA]

Man you sure picked a bad place to live for a sun lover.

 

#nosympathy

 

Chicken and egg.   This place makes you a sun lover.

 

And like I said... this happens for a day or two all the time out here but almost never for 7 days in a row.   Let alone in July.

[TT-SEA]

Even Snoqualmie Pass has sun this afternoon...

 

[Guest CulverJosh]

Been sunny here every day.

[Omegaraptor]

HRRR is suggesting that tomorrow will get fairly warm tomorrow before the rain hits. Sounder shows 80°F in my area.

 

No other model suggests at such a warmup.