September 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Jesse]

I just ran into Joe English (meteorologist from KATU) in downtown Vancouver.

 

My second time running into him in public, funnily enough. Last time was years ago when I worked for Safeway.

[TT-SEA]

Mostly sunny and 75 here.

[MossMan]

I’m putting everyone and the weather on ignore.

 

#ultimatecontrol

#keepthinskinintact

You are going to miss out on all of my dogs in snow pics this season!

[Omegaraptor]

Is that what you do when you put the 240+ GFS on ignore.

GFS saw the first cold snap of February 2019 coming almost 384 hours out. Same for the March heat wave. Even a broken clock...

[Jesse]

I’m putting everyone and the weather on ignore.

#ultimatecontrol

#keepthinskinintact

Nothing says thick skinned like getting incredibly hot and bothered over someone’s decision that doesn’t even affect you!

 

So I miss some oversaturated yard pics and troll attempts. Makes for a more enjoyable forum experience for me, and probably keeps this place more peaceful overall. Maybe that’s why you don’t like it.

[Deweydog]

You are going to miss out on all of my dogs in snow pics this season!

You must be planning a lot of staycations at the Stampede Pass Holiday Inn Express.

 

#climatechange

#ugh

[TT-SEA]

Nothing says thick skinned like getting incredibly hot and bothered over someone’s decision that doesn’t even affect you!

 

So I miss some oversaturated yard pics and troll attempts. Makes for a more enjoyable forum experience for me, and probably keeps this place more peaceful overall. Maybe that’s why you don’t like it.

#thinskin response

 

And nothing has changed or will change. You will still see everything anwyays. But now you have to refrain from responding to maintain the ruse. ;)

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Also sea surface temperatures in New York City are about 71 F right now. Cape Hatteras was about 78 F. Southern California is currently low to mid 70s. Regardless of sea surface temperatures the Pacific High and the subsidence inversion would still make it hard for a hurricane to hit Southern California. In 2006 the sea surface temperatures reached 80 F off the coast for a while here.

 

It's happened:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1858_San_Diego_hurricane

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1939_California_tropical_storm

[umadbro]

Nice lightning show off to the north from Battle Ground. Warm morning too at 62.

I was watching that on my way in to work this morning. Very frequent lightning

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Impressive how the Gulf Stream is holding Dorian together despite strong NWerly shear and mid-level dry air intrusion.

 

If conditions were more favorable aloft, it’s a good bet Dorian would be a Cat3 right now. Easy to see how New Jersey could have been struck by a Cat4 in the 19th century.

 

Headed right for Nova Scotia now.

 

National Hurricane Center @NHC_Atlantic

 

NEW: The Canadian Hurricane Centre @ECCC_CHC has issued Hurricane Warnings for a large part of Nova Scotia, with Hurricane Watches for Prince Edward Island and southwestern Newfoundland.

 

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1170052132965216257

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Front Ranger]

Centre. Haha!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Looking good for a nice soaking over the next couple weeks.

[TT-SEA]

Sunny and 80 here... only 76 at SEA and 72 at OLM.

 

Marine layer is still right up to OLM... not burning back at all today.

[El_Nina]

Just took advantage of this last sunny day by taking a run. Kinda am hoping it comes back later in the month instead of the door closing all the way so soon. But the rain is very welcomed the lawn has finally turned brown the last couple weeks.

[Jesse]

Just took advantage of this last sunny day by taking a run. Kinda am hoping it comes back later in the month instead of the door closing all the way so soon. But the rain is very welcomed the lawn has finally turned brown the last couple weeks.

When was the last time it started raining in early September and never stopped?

 

Sunny days and ridgy periods will ALWAYS come back, probably many many of them considering how early it is in the season. Wouldn’t worry too much about it. It is our default weather after all.

[TacomaWaWx]

Cool onshore flow seems to be increasing. Temp has dropped about 8 degrees since 4pm here, down to 66.

[MossMan]

Down to 63 and still dropping like a low solar rock.

[TT-SEA]

Still 75 out here... but some clouds forming now.  

[Deweydog]

Still 75 out here... but some clouds forming now.

How many?

 

Pics?

[TT-SEA]

How many?

 

Pics?

37... melding together into 1.

[Anti Marine Layer]

A trough is finally what helped to get Dorian moving.

[Blizzard777]

77/58 Federal Way

[TT-SEA]

A trough is finally what helped to get Dorian moving.

Almost always the case.

[MossMan]

The Nifty Fifties! 58 currently.

[TT-SEA]

The Nifty Fifties! 58 currently.

Sexy 69 here.

[Phil]

It was showing wind speeds of over 100 for Canada in the models, but hopefully this is in km/h.

 

Also sea surface temperatures in New York City are about 71 F right now. Cape Hatteras was about 78 F. Southern California is currently low to mid 70s. Regardless of sea surface temperatures the Pacific High and the subsidence inversion would still make it hard for a hurricane to hit Southern California. In 2006 the sea surface temperatures reached 80 F off the coast for a while here.

Well, it’s about how close the warm waters are. The waters are clearly much colder off the coast of California than most of the east coast, and perhaps more importantly, the *subsurface* waters are even colder off the west coast, relatively speaking (which is pretty typical). The average peak in SSTs along the east coast is somewhere in the upper 80s from Florida to Charleston, and mid-80s from Wilmington to Hatteras. The inland tidal inlets from NC/VA up into the Chesapeake Bay usually peak in the mid/upper 80s given their shallow nature.

 

[ShawniganLake]

Looks like we might get 1 tenth or so.

[Phil]

This is a nice page for water temperature climatology, for anyone interested.

 

https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/dsdt/cwtg/all_meanT.html

 

https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/dsdt/cwtg/satl.html

 

To elaborate on the above, note how blowtorchy the coastal water temperature climatology is for much of the eastern seaboard versus California. Low/mid 80s from FL right up into the DE straits. Meanwhile the California waters are in the 60s/low 70s most of the summer.

 

 

Btw, it’s so stupid how far north the hot water extends along the east coast in Jul/Aug...The Chesapeake/Potomac waters are as warm as those in South Florida. Lol.

 

[El_Nina]

When was the last time it started raining in early September and never stopped?

Sunny days and ridgy periods will ALWAYS come back, probably many many of them considering how early it is in the season. Wouldn’t worry too much about it. It is our default weather after all.

This year really just feels different.

[ShawniganLake]

High of 80F here today. Mild evening, still about 68

[Anti Marine Layer]

Catalina eddies can sometimes pull up warmer water from the South, in contrast to the usual upwelling. This is why the water south of Pt Conception can be 10-15 degrees warmer than the water to the north of it. San Diego has seen dewpoints in the low level 70s at times recently, which is quite muggy for them.

[TT-SEA]

High of 80F here today. Mild evening, still about 68

Same here on both.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

63F and pleasant with beautiful moon, planets, and stars out. Lots of good ballgames tomorrow and the kiddos are over to close out the warm season.

[MossMan]

Finally got around to checking my high temp...it was 79.

Currently 56.

[Farmboy]

I know it may be a little premature, but does anyone have an idea about Pacific storm frequency this winter and the Sierra snow pack next spring? Will it be a high snow year, or a low snow year?

[TacomaWaWx]

Low of 60 here this morning. 3rd 60+ night this month and #15 this year.

[TacomaWaWx]

Gfs keeps us fairly wet from this evening until Wednesday. Drys out for 24 hours then shows more rain next weekend. Would be interesting to see that verify. Could end up being a wet September if it verifies and we get more rain on the back end of this month, but it’s way too early to make that call.

[Phil]

I know it may be a little premature, but does anyone have an idea about Pacific storm frequency this winter and the Sierra snow pack next spring? Will it be a high snow year, or a low snow year?

Well the NPAC Jet (integrated from 20N to 60N) should be weaker than average this winter, but that doesn’t necessarily correlate to storm/snowpack conditions in the Sierras/SW US, since there are modes (STJ, etc) within the “NPAC Jet” framework that can produce down there.

 

Of course, if we somehow pull off a third consecutive winter with a SSW (which I’m leaning against for more than just statistical reasons) then my above forecast could be rendered moot. In all honesty, it just takes one big, fat wavebreak at the right time to f**k up an entire seasonal/winter forecast via the stratosphere.

[Phil]

Gabrielle sure is a late bloomer. *Becomes* a warm core hurricane at ~ 40N.