TacomaWaWx Posted September 24, 2019 Report Share Posted September 24, 2019 Safe to say the latest gfs run is not backing down. Feeling a little more confident about this now but will see how this goes for a couple more days. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 24, 2019 Report Share Posted September 24, 2019 Could it be that we're seeing lag still from the Nino last winter?I wouldn’t call it lag, since the coupling is still present and the system state (+IOD/Cool Indo-Pacific/+PMM/dateline warm pool) is very well-established. Where the system goes in F/M/A 2020 is debatable..some forecasters are thinking the beginning of the move to the heavy multiyear La Niña/-PMM/-PDO starts next spring/summer, but I’m not so sure. I think that happens a year later (2021/22) now, but that’s way out there. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 24, 2019 Report Share Posted September 24, 2019 He made a forecast that made no senseFor the warm September did not commenceNow he's hoping to even the scoreWhile with every trough, he'll cry some moreThe frost will come, the leaves will turnAnd much to his despair, the fires won't burnOoooohhhhh...now I wanna write a Tim/Dewey poem! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 24, 2019 Report Share Posted September 24, 2019 Both 1971 and 1985 were not +ENSO. Throw them out. - Phil Seymour HoffmanI wouldn’t throw 1985 out. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 24, 2019 Report Share Posted September 24, 2019 I wouldn’t call it lag, since the coupling is still present and the system state (+IOD/Cool Indo-Pacific/+PMM/dateline warm pool) is very well-established. Where the system goes in F/M/A 2020 is debatable..some forecasters are thinking the beginning of the move to the heavy multiyear La Niña/-PMM/-PDO starts next spring/summer, but I’m not so sure. I think that happens a year later (2021/22) now, but that’s way out there.Perhaps. But it's possible Jim is right...what we've seen to this point is remnants of last winter's regime, and now the atmosphere is turning as the ENSO lag fades. A neutral system state is very much on the table for this winter, I think. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted September 24, 2019 Report Share Posted September 24, 2019 I wouldn’t throw 1985 out. Oh boy... Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 24, 2019 Report Share Posted September 24, 2019 I wouldn’t throw 1985 out.Good man. Solar min after all... Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 24, 2019 Report Share Posted September 24, 2019 00z looks pretty darn cold. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 24, 2019 Report Share Posted September 24, 2019 Perhaps. But it's possible Jim is right...what we've seen to this point is remnants of last winter's regime, and now the atmosphere is turning as the ENSO lag fades. A neutral system state is very much on the table for this winter, I think.We’ll see, I guess. But keep in mind, the structure of tropical convection right now is very El Niño-like..one of the strongest phase 8/1 MJO cycles for mid/late September in recent decades. So it’s hard to argue that the atmosphere is moving “away” from El Niño, in that context. What you’re seeing now across in the middle latitudes is a consequence of the culminating cycle of AAM transport poleward and the seasonal transition in the wavenumber/ET dynamics. With time, these boundary conditions must change. Question is, how will the wavetrain respond? Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted September 24, 2019 Author Report Share Posted September 24, 2019 00z looks pretty darn cold. It does, for sure. In fact I would say it's a tad bit colder than the 18Z. 2 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted September 24, 2019 Report Share Posted September 24, 2019 It does, for sure. In fact I would say it's a tad bit colder than the 18Z. Id have to agree. Very good run little less than 4 days out now. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted September 24, 2019 Author Report Share Posted September 24, 2019 Geez, 00Z stays pretty chilly too. Nothing like a week out from now, but not a bad start, I would say 2 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 24, 2019 Report Share Posted September 24, 2019 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted September 24, 2019 Report Share Posted September 24, 2019 Smh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 24, 2019 Report Share Posted September 24, 2019 Smh What are we in trouble for this time, Chris? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted September 24, 2019 Report Share Posted September 24, 2019 Another 0.27" of rain today, brings the monthly total to 2.41"; not bad for September. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted September 24, 2019 Report Share Posted September 24, 2019 Geez, 00Z stays pretty chilly too. Nothing like a week out from now, but not a bad start, I would say 00z GFS is entertaining the possiblity of frost in Roseburg on 9/30 and 10/1. They have only ever experienced September frost once - and it was 32ºF on September 30, 1954. Actually, the morning of the 30th looks pretty impressive just about everywhere in the NW: 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 24, 2019 Report Share Posted September 24, 2019 This has been quite the wild weather month. Been enjoying the weather ride ever since those strong thunderstorms came through that one night. Getting kind of windy out there tonight. Will be interesting to see how early we have a frost in the Puget Sound area. Been a couple hectic months for me and now that things are calming down - I can spend time again here. 2 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted September 24, 2019 Author Report Share Posted September 24, 2019 This has been quite the wild weather month. Been enjoying the weather ride ever since those strong thunderstorms came through that one night. Getting kind of windy out there tonight. Will be interesting to see how early we have a frost in the Puget Sound area. Been a couple hectic months for me and now that things are calming down - I can spend time again here. Yes, it hasn't been a bad summer by any definition (unless one's definition is constant torching-- if then, it was terrible). Strong thunderstorms for both Portland and Seattle. Strong wind for Portland a week ago or two. Heavy rain for both cities from convective events. And no smoke! I'd call it a win! I'm glad things are settling down for you, as well. 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 24, 2019 Report Share Posted September 24, 2019 He made a forecast that made no senseFor the warm September did not commenceNow he's hoping to even the scoreWhile with every trough, he'll cry some moreThe frost will come, the leaves will turnAnd much to his despair, the fires won't burnIs that James Joyce? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 24, 2019 Report Share Posted September 24, 2019 Up to 4.25" of rain here for the month. Last September only 1.79" and that was for all 30 days. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 24, 2019 Report Share Posted September 24, 2019 I'm getting more excited about this event the more I look into it. It appears that getting both a fantastic 500mb pattern and a Canadian surface high dropping over us is tremendously rare this early in the season. We could threaten some all time records for cold so early in the season. Landsburg doesn't have a low on record below 29 until October 8. Most of the years that did get to freezing in late Sept / early Oct went on to be very good winters. I have some research to do!How far back does landsburg have records. September records for wind sheltered areas here are 23 to 25F. From 1926. We won’t be close to that this time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted September 24, 2019 Report Share Posted September 24, 2019 Yeah in the PDX area you'd have to dig quite a while back to actually match a snow that occurred during the hours of Trick or Treating (or even right before or after). Hell, even where I live now in a place that gets 10x more snow, probably has not seen Halloween snow in quite some years. Generally October snow isn't unheard of, but it was probably somewhere in the 1980's when a Halloween snow last happened. I know I live right by people who will say "it can snow in July in K-Falls" but how often exactly does that occur, 1 in every 20-25 years. I have an uncle who's been here since 2006 and has not seen snow later than the 3rd week of June or sooner than the first week of October. 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 16 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted September 24, 2019 Report Share Posted September 24, 2019 00z GFS is entertaining the possiblity of frost in Roseburg on 9/30 and 10/1. They have only ever experienced September frost once - and it was 32ºF on September 30, 1954. Actually, the morning of the 30th looks pretty impressive just about everywhere in the NW: Lots of 30s in the lowlands. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted September 24, 2019 Report Share Posted September 24, 2019 This has been quite the wild weather month. Been enjoying the weather ride ever since those strong thunderstorms came through that one night. Getting kind of windy out there tonight. Will be interesting to see how early we have a frost in the Puget Sound area. Been a couple hectic months for me and now that things are calming down - I can spend time again here. Thunderstorms on 9/7 and 9/12 were pretty great. Has been a fast and sudden onset of fall, looks like it really steps it up a notch this weekend if the forecasts verify. 2.65” of rain so far this month. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted September 24, 2019 Report Share Posted September 24, 2019 How far back does landsburg have records. September records for wind sheltered areas here are 23 to 25F. From 1926. We won’t be close to that this time.That's insane for the lowlands. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted September 24, 2019 Report Share Posted September 24, 2019 Thunderstorms on 9/7 and 9/12 were pretty great. Has been a fast and sudden onset of fall, looks like it really steps it up a notch this weekend if the forecasts verify. 2.65” of rain so far this month. You're getting shawdowed down there a bit. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted September 24, 2019 Report Share Posted September 24, 2019 Yeah in the PDX area you'd have to dig quite a while back to actually match a snow that occurred during the hours of Trick or Treating (or even right before or after). Hell, even where I live now in a place that gets 10x more snow, probably has not seen Halloween snow in quite some years. Generally October snow isn't unheard of, but it was probably somewhere in the 1980's when a Halloween snow last happened. I know I live right by people who will say "it can snow in July in K-Falls" but how often exactly does that occur, 1 in every 20-25 years. I have an uncle who's been here since 2006 and has not seen snow later than the 3rd week of June or sooner than the first week of October. Actually, the only appreciable October snowfall in Portland area history was on October 29, 1935. There may have also been a dusting in October 1835 according to early records, so I guess we'll be due again in 16 years. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted September 24, 2019 Report Share Posted September 24, 2019 Is that James Joyce? Lord Byron Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted September 24, 2019 Report Share Posted September 24, 2019 1985 was all about November. Historically cold and snowy. It was then followed by a cold and dry December. Some place had snow on the 2nd or thereabouts.I had just turned 9yrs old and got to experience my first last minute school cancellation as I waited at the bus stop in a driving snowstorm...that was wonderful! Lake Goodwin froze over and there are pics of me in snow up to my waist. Good times! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted September 24, 2019 Report Share Posted September 24, 2019 That's insane for the lowlands.From September 22-25, 1926 the Duncan station went 26F, 23F, 25F, 29F for lows. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted September 24, 2019 Report Share Posted September 24, 2019 Up to .45” on the day. Windy and wet, feels like late October out there! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted September 24, 2019 Report Share Posted September 24, 2019 What are we in trouble for this time, Chris? Lol, noone, just hoping the conversation about the upcoming cool snap coming happens a few times during winter, but with brutal cold. Tough for me to be excited for a September snap. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted September 24, 2019 Report Share Posted September 24, 2019 You're getting shawdowed down there a bit. We we’re on the lower end of the totals that some places got. Still roughly an inch above average for the month. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 24, 2019 Report Share Posted September 24, 2019 Lol, noone, just hoping the conversation about the upcoming cool snap coming happens a few times during winter, but with brutal cold. Tough for me to be excited for a September snap.The thought police have two units en route your residence. Prepare accordingly. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted September 24, 2019 Report Share Posted September 24, 2019 The thought police have two units en route your residence. Prepare accordingly.Locked and loaded, #2ndAmendment!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 24, 2019 Report Share Posted September 24, 2019 Euro!!! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 24, 2019 Report Share Posted September 24, 2019 The thought police have two units en route your residence. Prepare accordingly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 24, 2019 Report Share Posted September 24, 2019 Surprising number of GFS ensemble members going below 0c around days 5-7. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted September 24, 2019 Report Share Posted September 24, 2019 Surprising number of GFS ensemble members going below 0c around days 5-7.Definitely surprising considering how warm the op is around that time. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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