October 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[TT-SEA]

A true shitstorm of opinion.

 

 

Record rainfall in parts of the region does not quite generate the excitement on here as even a tiny dusting of snow can do.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Conservatives probably would have won if they had chosen a different leader. Sheer just did not connect with the public. That and clearly a big chunk of the voters were still unhappy with the job the conservatives did when last in power.

 

Probably would have won in a weaker economy too, both sides had pretty awful campaigns. Trudeau is pulling a Trump tonight, down 1% in the popular vote but still has a higher seat count.

[Jesse]

[stuffradio]

In his defense, we keep Tim around.

We keep you around too.

[Timmy]

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS is slightly east of the "devastating" 12Z run on Saturday.

[stuffradio]

I don't mind the periods of higher than normal rain and lower than normal rain we have been getting. The rain is not my favourite for getting exercise, but it is "cozy" for this time of the year to stay inside. I need to find other ways of getting my exercise when I'm not running in the rain.

[TT-SEA]

Is that a thing ?

I had absolutely no idea there was an election up there today.

[BLI snowman]

00Z GFS is slightly east of the "devastating" 12Z run on Saturday.

 

Light rain that day would have equaled the truest devastation seen yet.

[TT-SEA]

The 500mb ensemble mean shows a lot of back digging after the initial invasion of cold air.  Much more than previous runs and wildly different than the operational.  I would bet a crisp $20.00 that the 0z operational will at least be some better than the 18z operational.

 

 

I was really tempted to take this bet.    Should have done it.  

[TT-SEA]

Light rain that day would have equaled the truest devastation seen yet.

 

Sorry you feel that way.   I just like the idea of a dry weekend.   Timing is everything.   Seems like other people on here agree with me.   

[TT-SEA]

Actually... Jim might have won that bet.  I know never to bet against him!   Reload pretty close by Monday morning.  

[BLI snowman]

I was really tempted to take this bet.    Should have done it.  

 

It does appear a bit closer with the main lobe at 144 hours. The initial trough over the weekend doesn't really have much potential anyways.

[TT-SEA]

It does appear a bit closer with the main lobe at 144 hours. The initial trough over the weekend doesn't really have much potential anyways.

 

See post above.   

[Jesse]

We keep you around too.

You need to get better at keeping you around. I almost forgot about you for awhile there.

[TT-SEA]

Front looks like its diving south now pretty fast on the radar.

[BLI snowman]

See post above.   

 

See timestamps.    

 

Pretty cold airmass into Eastern WA on this run.

[TT-SEA]

See timestamps.    

 

Pretty cold airmass into Eastern WA on this run.

 

Yeah... I posted that before your post.

[Gradient Keeper]

Wow. IMPRESSIVE!!! and so close to being MUCH colder than this!

 

[BLI snowman]

Yeah... I posted that before your post.

 

Yeah...actually almost simultaneously.

 

I don't refresh every .25 seconds either.

[Phil]

That’s almost a backdoor blast on the 00z GFS to close out the month.

 

Pattern wise it’s very similar to an analog year that shall not be named.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah...actually almost simultaneously.

 

I don't refresh every .25 seconds either.

You seem to be close to that. Point is that I could not have seen your post and just wanted to point out that I already said the same thing.

[Omegaraptor]

That’s almost a backdoor blast on the 00z GFS to close out the month.

 

Pattern wise it’s very similar to an analog year that shall not be named.

 

1976 or 2002?

 

Also, the block on the 00z GFS operational is much stronger than the block on the 18z GFS operational. Still going strong at 192 hours from the looks of it.

[stuffradio]

You need to get better at keeping you around. I almost forgot about you for awhile there.

 

I wanted you to get a break from me for a while.

[TT-SEA]

1976 or 2002?

 

Also, the block on the 00z GFS operational is much stronger than the block on the 18z GFS operational. Still going strong at 192 hours from the looks of it.

Should keep it dry for much longer too.

 

Looks very much like the ECMWF and EPS.

[ShawniganLake]

D**n. How bout that ICON. Balls to the wall cold.

[Jesse]

d**n. How bout that ICON. Balls to the wall cold.

Again???

[BLI snowman]

You seem to be close to that. Point is that I could not have seen your post and just wanted to point out that I already said the same thing.

 

And I didn't see your 9:12 comment when I made my 9:12 comment. Not too complicated, obviously.

[TT-SEA]

d**n. How bout that ICON. Balls to the wall cold.

Been slowly trending east.

[Omegaraptor]

Should keep it dry for much longer too.

 

Looks very much like the ECMWF and EPS.

 

Honestly, it's really not all about rain. I've definitely changed my stance on that a bit recently. There's more to interesting weather than just rain, even in the lowland PNW.

[Phil]

1976 or 2002?

 

Also, the block on the 00z GFS operational is much stronger than the block on the 18z GFS operational. Still going strong at 192 hours from the looks of it.

You guessed it!

 

It was a bit farther along with the addition of westerly momentum in the subtropics, but a similar waveguide overall. We’re slower with the progression in 2019 vs 2002.

 

[BLI snowman]

Again???

 

Shows some pretty low snow levels in OR on Monday morning as a low forms off the coast.

[Chewbacca Defense]

Looks like we are finally getting to the back edge of the rain. Up to 2.05" for the day, 5.58" for the month.

[Omegaraptor]

 

Hour 168 sounder on the GFS for my area looks interesting. 49ºF with a dewpoint of 9ºF under full sunshine.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

2002 

[Omegaraptor]

but 2002 was solar max!!!!!!!!!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

Not often in October we see the 522 thickness line over Eastern Washington! So close to much colder yet

 

[Jesse]

2002

September and most of October 2002 were really nothing like this year.

[Phil]

Huge wave break at hr264. Lol..I wonder what this run will do in the clown range..

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEM Day 3.5 MUCH stronger with the evolving block at this point than the GFS!

 

 

Model comparison

 

GEM

 

 

GFS