October 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Omegaraptor]

Last warmer than average February was 3 years ago.

 

I don't think we're due for one because nature will do whatever it wants and does not have a concept of "due".

[Requiem]

Last warmer than average February was 3 years ago.

 

I don't think we're due for one because nature will do whatever it wants and does not have a concept of "due".

 

Is there even such a thing as "due"? Like, we could have ten snow winters in a row and it's not like the year after it is an absolute certainty that we would torch, y'know?

[ShawniganLake]

So far in this last decade (or even longer) most of the time the PNW gets snow events it is one thing or the other, not both.

 

I know 2016 had one or two but that was under severe in most locations.

The windstorm last December is BC and Washington was big league stuff. Historic for B.C. Most damaging storm in the history of B.C. hydro.

[Requiem]

The windstorm last December is BC and Washington was big league stuff. Historic for B.C. Most damaging storm in the history of B.C. hydro.

The last windstorm that was a real deal down here in Oregon would have to be December 2014. 60-70 gusts in the Portland area for an hour or two.

[Guest CulverJosh]

There is a reason Mr. Mark Nelsen doesnt do winter forecasts, or even forecasts past 7 days. He does very generalized long-range "trend" forecasts. He is smart.

[TacomaWaWx]

Hiked crystal mountain today. Still patchy deep snow up around 6000’, saw some larch trees turning yellow as well.

[ShawniganLake]

There is a reason Mr. Mark Nelsen doesnt do winter forecasts, or even forecasts past 7 days. He does very generalized long-range "trend" forecasts. He is smart.

Does he enjoy having your lips firmly planted on his butt cheeks.

[TacomaWaWx]

The windstorm last December is BC and Washington was big league stuff. Historic for B.C. Most damaging storm in the history of B.C. hydro.

we had 60mph gusts all the way down here on 12/20. We had 60mph gusts on the morning of 1/6 as well, 1/6 hit the south sound harder.

[Omegaraptor]

The last windstorm that was a real deal down here in Oregon would have to be December 2014. 60-70 gusts in the Portland area for an hour or two.

 

I was in Newport on 4/7/17 and woke up to 70 MPH gusts.

 

Wasn't as strong inland, though.

[Requiem]

There is a reason Mr. Mark Nelsen doesnt do winter forecasts, or even forecasts past 7 days. He does very low long-range "trend" forecasts. He is smart.

 

He obviously knows how fickle long-range forecasts are. People sometimes forget that "forecasts", are exactly that-- predictions. 

[Requiem]

I was in Newport on 4/7/17 and woke up to 70 MPH gusts.

 

Wasn't as strong inland, though.

 

Actually that storm was decent inland as well-- top of Council Crest had pretty regular gusts 75-85 over the course of an hour.

[umadbro]

There is a reason Mr. Mark Nelsen doesnt do winter forecasts, or even forecasts past 7 days. He does very generalized long-range "trend" forecasts. He is smart.

Well I guess we better stop having fun trying to forecast long range. Mark doesn't do it and he's smart, so we're all just stupid.

[TacomaWaWx]

56/42 day in Tacoma, beautiful sunrise this morning. It was warm in the mountains due to the inversion.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

The new UKMET seasonals look fantastic for the PNW. During the NDJ timeframe, it shows the coldest anomalies/temperatures in the West/PNW for the CONUS. I like our chances to SCORE in the front half of the winter. Less likely of having to wait until February like the previous 2 winters.

 

It also shows heights and 850 temps and 2m temps to he slightly above normal. Basically we torch less than everywhere else.

[Front Ranger]

The new UKMET seasonals look fantastic for the PNW. During the NDJ timeframe, it shows the coldest anomalies/temperatures in the West/PNW for the CONUS. I like our chances to SCORE in the front half of the winter. Less likely of having to wait until February like the previous 2 winters.

 

A lot of people scored at Christmas in 2017...

[Front Ranger]

It also shows heights and 850 temps and 2m temps to he slightly above normal. Basically we torch less than everywhere else.

I'll be absolutely shocked if that much of the NH mid latitudes is warmer than normal this winter.

[MossMan]

The windstorm last December is BC and Washington was big league stuff. Historic for B.C. Most damaging storm in the history of B.C. hydro.

No power for two days here after that one...I was one of the lucky ones.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

I'll be absolutely shocked if that much of the NH mid latitudes is warmer than normal this winter.

So many of the longer term models show warm anomalies over 80-90% of the world, which is not believable. That has been the case for a long time now.

[ShawniganLake]

0.11” of rain here today. Though it was partly sunny most of the afternoon. 57/39

[Timmy Supercell]

66/20 today. This morning's record low was actually set in 2017 (I had totally forgotten about that low of 16 two years ago!)

 

This afternoon felt nice.

[Phil]

The new UKMET seasonals look fantastic for the PNW. During the NDJ timeframe, it shows the coldest anomalies/temperatures in the West/PNW for the CONUS. I like our chances to SCORE in the front half of the winter. Less likely of having to wait until February like the previous 2 winters.

 

Based off the UKMET? That model has struggled mightily for two winters in a row.

[Phil]

Don’t do this to yourself again.

 

This winter is going night night after early December.

Is that actually your forecast?

[TT-SEA]

Is that actually your forecast?

Matt does not make long range seasonal forecasts... he realizes its mostly a crapshoot.

[Phil]

Matt does not make long range seasonal forecasts... he realizes its mostly a crapshoot.

It’s more than a mere crapshoot, but it certainly cannot be done with a high degree of accuracy..especially not on a consistent basis.

[Jesse]

Nice day. 61/35 with some mid to high level overcast and patchy sunbreaks at times.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Nice day. 61/35 with some mid to high level overcast and patchy sunbreaks at times.

 

Not as nice as 86/52 with sunshine, deep blue sky and a low October sun angle.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

A lot of people scored at Christmas in 2017...

:-(

 

1990 baby!

[Requiem]

00Z looks great. Wet conditions throughout next week-- a decently strong bluster in a week, and in general things stay active for at least the next ten days.

[Jesse]

Not as nice as 86/52 with sunshine, deep blue sky and a low October sun angle.

In your opinion.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

It begins!

 

[Requiem]

It begins!

 

 

I'm a fan

[MossMan]

Drainage project 85% done! I ran short on drain rock otherwise I would have had it completed tomorrow. It is functional so if it decides to November 2008 redux, the drainage will do its job.

[TacomaWaWx]

It might rain a bit next week.

[TT-SEA]

I'm a fan

That storm is cranking through... its just about into northern Idaho on the next frame.

[ShawniganLake]

Drainage project 85% done! I ran short on drain rock otherwise I would have had it completed tomorrow. It is functional so if it decides to November 2008 redux, the drainage will do its job.

November 2008? Was it a wet month there? ‘06 and ‘09 were the wet ones, at least up this way.

[MossMan]

November 2008? Was it a wet month there? ‘06 and ‘09 were the wet ones, at least up this way.

Oops I meant 2006. Massively wet start to the month, then 1.5’ of heavy wet snow that destroyed every alder in this area. No power for nearly a week.

[ShawniganLake]

Oops I meant 2006. Massively wet start to the month, then 1.5’ of heavy wet snow that destroyed every alder in this area. No power for nearly a week.

Wettest month I’ve ever experienced. Nothing comes close. I’m pretty sure it’s the wettest month in history for Shawnigan lake

 

Including the SWE from 33.5” of snow, we had well over 20” of precip that month.

[Front Ranger]

Matt does not make long range seasonal forecasts... he realizes its mostly a crapshoot.

You're giving him way too much credit.

[Front Ranger]

98/-9 here today.

[Timmy]

98/-9 here today.

That’s your opinion