October 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[El_Nina]

sure it was rainy, but it was also warmer and not necessarily a “stormy” pattern like we’re headed into. Should be cooler, wetter and breezier than September was.

From that angle, you're right. Lots of angles.

[TacomaWaWx]

From that angle, you're right. Lots of angles.

lol sun angles too. Most of the September rain it was in the mid 60s, October weather to me is mid 50s and rain, not mid 60s which would be more similar to rain in July and August than October IMO.

[El_Nina]

lol sun angles too. Most of the September rain it was in the mid 60s, October weather to me is mid 50s and rain, not mid 60s which would be more similar to rain in July and August than October IMO.

Everytime it's raining and about 60 I imagine it's middle December and a pineapple express. And it has been quite cold so far this month especially at night so that to me has felt like October. I think in terms of the overall pattern though you're right, from most angles.

[Timmy Supercell]

sure it was rainy, but it was also warmer and not necessarily a “stormy” pattern like we’re headed into. Should be cooler, wetter and breezier than September was.

 

I've had 60 degree rain in October 2016 here, and I'm at a high elevation. That felt effing nice.

 

Last month some of my rain felt a bit out of season. On 09/16 one of my t'storms was fairly chilly, 48 degrees with rain and thunder is like an April thundershower in this area.

[Omegaraptor]

Forecast looks beautiful. 2”+ rainfall in four days starting Wednesday.

 

Only three more days until it starts.

[MossMan]

Remember this! 3yrs ago today! Biggest windstorm flop in history!

[TacomaWaWx]

I've had 60 degree rain in October 2016 here, and I'm at a high elevation. That felt effing nice.

 

Last month some of my rain felt a bit out of season. On 09/16 one of my t'storms was fairly chilly, 48 degrees with rain and thunder is like an April thundershower in this area.

In general it was muggy and humid and rainy during that stretch of September in my area. For the most part this summer and early fall was muggy warm summer feeling rain, including July/August. This next week will be real October esque weather cooler less muggy in the 50s and breezy.

[ShawniganLake]

Pretty standard looking October pattern next week. Periods of light to moderate rain with not much wind to speak of. Unless something spins up that the models aren’t seeing

[Deweydog]

[Requiem]

Remember this! 3yrs ago today! Biggest windstorm flop in history!

Such a disappointing day.

[Anti Marine Layer]

There's a city called Boring in Oregon. They need one for California due to boring weather.

[Phil]

It’s not entirely trolling on my part. My opinion is that the best this winter has to offer will probably come early on. Maybe really early. Every level-headed person here, including me, knows I could be wrong to really wrong.

 

I just think you consistently dip your toes in sensationalistic waters without need. You did it to the highest degree two years ago with January and it was an epic failure. A few years before that it was all about the nearly impossibly cold air mass over Seattle and now the hyperbole is once again getting turned up.

What “sensationalistic hyperbole” are you referencing (in regards to this year)?

 

And I think I got the pattern progression (largely) correct back in 2017/18..I was just a bit off with the placement of the block and the big cold just missed east.

 

Before that you have to go 2014 (yet another missed retrogression..they’ve been my achilles heel).

[ShawniganLake]

What “sensationalistic hyperbole” are you referencing (in regards to this year)? ).

Maybe a little over the top?

 

“There could be an obscene amount of cold on our side of the pole at this time (full PV column likely begins to displace into NW Canada). If there’s enough wave amplification..holy sh*t.”

[TacomaWaWx]

57 and mostly cloudy at 2:30pm. Not a bad day plus the Seahawks are 5-1.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Time for Pete and Schotty to open up the offense the next few weeks. Weak defenses coming up.

[Phil]

Maybe a little over the top?

 

“There could be an obscene amount of cold on our side of the pole at this time (full PV column likely begins to displace into NW Canada). If there’s enough wave amplification..holy sh*t.”

I don’t see what’s wrong with that? If the cold pool is a consolidated unit on the WHEM side of the pole, there are indications this would be the favored outcome (the TPV pushing into W-Canada during the second half of winter).

 

That’s an ideal location for cold to build in a meridional regime.

[TT-SEA]

Snoqualmie Valley this afternoon...

 

 

[Blizzard777]

There's a city called Boring in Oregon. They need one for California due to boring weather.

At least Boring Oregon is right next to Happy Valley 

 

boring weather sucks 

[TacomaWaWx]

58/49 here in Tacoma. Partly sunny at times throughout the day.

[Blizzard777]

57/48

.03

[TigerWoodsLibido]

61/42 on the day. Mostly cloudy but dry.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like the GFS ensemble is conslidating on a decently cool trough around the 23rd before a possible warm ridge.  Between now and then we get a couple of solid cold fronts.  Not too shabby.

 

Another pretty cool day today with 56-47 IMBY.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like a tossup whether it will clear out or stay cloudy tonight.  I'm getting some good breaks here, but far from being an obvious clear out.  We could easily see 30s tonight if it does clear out.

[Timmy Supercell]

67/26. Another nice evening to stroll around. 

[Timmy Supercell]

There's a city called Boring in Oregon. They need one for California due to boring weather.

 

That's why California has Weed. 

[Omegaraptor]

That's why California has Weed. 

 

I stayed not too far from Weed this August. Beautiful area.

 

Also probably one of the least boring climates in California.

[TacomaWaWx]

Just had a light rain shower move through with 0.01” of rain. Was expecting a dry evening, looks like some breaks in the clouds now however.

[snow_wizard]

Well how about that.  It has managed to clear up this evening after heavy cloud cover all day.  It's amazing how the details usually go the right way to keep things chilly when we get on a roll like this.  

[snow_wizard]

I stayed not too far from Weed this August. Beautiful area.

 

Also probably one of the least boring climates in California.

 

They have a pretty decent climate.  Kind of a somewhat warmer version of Central WA.

[Omegaraptor]

00z GFS finishes the rainy system faster than the 12z and 18z, but drops the same amount of rain as far as Portland area goes.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Slow day on the board. Only a little over 50 posts.  Not much action on the models.

[MossMan]

Currently 41.

[Timmy Supercell]

Slow day on the board. Only a little over 50 posts.  Not much action on the models.

 

I really don't want a bone dry October. Some folks hate rain but a little mid Fall rain never hurts and it's not cold either.

[Jesse]

Slow day on the board. Only a little over 50 posts.  Not much action on the models.

 

The models are looking the most active they have so far this fall, ironically (as far as storminess goes). I think people are just taking a little break after tracking the last few cold events.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

The models are looking the most active they have so far this fall, ironically (as far as storminess goes). I think people are just taking a little break after tracking the last few cold events.

I meant in terms of cold. Makes sense. We are getting to normal

[snow_wizard]

Bonus cold night!  Still clear and already down to 44.  I have already improved on my low temp by 3 degrees this evening.

 

The GFS ensemble continues to look promising for a chilly trough around the 24th.  The type of situation that has a good chance to bring more frost.

[snow_wizard]

The latest 850mb wind anomaly forecasts for the Equatorial regions indicate anomalous easterly winds will begin expanding eastward from the Indian Ocean and extend all the way to 150W in about a week.  More bad news for anyone who wants an El Nino.

 

As far as solar goes...the sun is still flat lined as has been the case since late May.  Since then there have only been a few tiny spots that have lasted for one to two days and then die out.  This is rivaling or even exceeding the minimum from the previous cycle which itself was very deep.

[GHweatherChris]

11/20, nothing to track until 11/14ish.

[Deweydog]

11/20, nothing to track until 11/14ish.

[GHweatherChris]

That movie is awesome, thanks!