October 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[High Desert Mat?]

Isn’t it gnats? .....

[TT-SEA]

Eastern Washington County is right in the dark blue!

You really need to get down to the street level to really know.

 

Zoom in.

[TacomaWaWx]

57/42 day in Tacoma.

[TacomaWaWx]

Seems like all the models still are going with ridging in the long term after we get through this rainy pattern this week.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Never heard of Plain, WA but yeah they definitely deserve to be included in the League of Extraordinary Communities.

It is about a 25 minute drive NW of Leavenworth. They get about 125 inches of snow. Very pretty area, and very close to Lake Wenatchee.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

62/36 nice day. Currently 44F and a few clouds.

[BLI snowman]

Nats will be going to the WS.

 

Nice.

 

Mariners are now going to be the only franchise not to have been.

[TT-SEA]

Mariners are now going to be the only franchise not to have been.

Was just thinking about that... they are due!

[Phil]

If it ends up being nats/yanks, I’ll be seriously torn since they’re my two favorite teams. F**k the Astros.

[TacomaWaWx]

Rain Train is inbound.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like we may take more of a 1949 path (major ridging after a significant October cold period), but I'm not convinced yet.  We still have a cluster of ensemble members that want to keep it chilly.  We still have a legit shot at a quick hitting cold trough just before the ridging which would set the stage for cold nights during the period of ridging (assuming the ridge happens).  If we take the warmer path that would break the momentum of the recent cold regime and probably put off the notable cold this winter until the mid December to mid January time frame.

[GHweatherChris]

11/20

[The Swamp]

Massive ridge building inbound.

[TT-SEA]

54 and clear here... must be an east wind.

 

I see North Bend is the warm spot at 56 this morning...

 

[TT-SEA]

It interesting to note that the February into early March pattern of persistent cold in the West and warm in the East lasted for about 6 weeks... about the same as this current pattern by time we get to next week.

[TacomaWaWx]

It interesting to note that the February into early March pattern of persistent cold in the West and warm in the East lasted for about 6 weeks... about the same as this current pattern by time we get to next week.

Yes I believe we talked about the persistence of weather patterns over the last year roughly. Same theme seems to be continuing and will probably continue throughout the winter. Could mean long dry sunny periods or long rainy periods. Probably also means if we get stuck in a snowy pattern, we could be dealing with another similar situation to February.

[TacomaWaWx]

Foggy here this morning and a low of 44 degrees.

[TT-SEA]

It is indeed mostly clear here this morning with a nice sunrise in progress... light east wind and 53 now.

 

[Omegaraptor]

Fogless morning at HIO. 37°F low. 12z GFS starts in about an hour.

[TT-SEA]

Up to 58 in North Bend at dawn... impressive downslope warming.

[Jesse]

Yes I believe we talked about the persistence of weather patterns over the last year roughly. Same theme seems to be continuing and will probably continue throughout the winter. Could mean long dry sunny periods or long rainy periods. Probably also means if we get stuck in a snowy pattern, we could be dealing with another similar situation to February.

September saw warm and dry weather its first week. Then we saw about three weeks of mild and rainy followed by the last 2.5 weeks of colder, drier weather. And now we go into a stormy, rainy pattern that lasts about a week followed maybe by some ridging. It’s actually been pretty variable lately, which is normal. A lot different than the six weeks of unbroken cold in February and March.

[Jesse]

Beautiful sunrise here this morning. Low of 40.

[TT-SEA]

A similar but weaker version of the persistent cold West and very warm East pattern that locked in last February.

 

With a couple periods of record shattering cold thrown in for good measure. Montana was ground zero for the record cold and snow last spring and recently.

[MossMan]

Nice morning. Love these warm breezy pre frontal fall days.

[jcmcgaffey]

Yes I believe we talked about the persistence of weather patterns over the last year roughly. Same theme seems to be continuing and will probably continue throughout the winter. Could mean long dry sunny periods or long rainy periods. Probably also means if we get stuck in a snowy pattern, we could be dealing with another similar situation to February.

. I have noticed a correlation in similar patterns happening in pairs but I don’t think I have seen an extremely similar pattern happen more than back to back.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Nice chilly morning.  Got down to 39F now 46F.

[TT-SEA]

Beautiful morning... almost 60 now.

 

[Guest CulverJosh]

Name is changed now. Everybody happy? Lol.

[TT-SEA]

Name is changed now. Everybody happy? Lol.

 

So happy!  

[TacomaWaWx]

September saw warm and dry weather its first week. Then we saw about three weeks of mild and rainy followed by the last 2.5 weeks of colder, drier weather. And now we go into a stormy, rainy pattern that lasts about a week followed maybe by some ridging. It’s actually been pretty variable lately, which is normal. A lot different than the six weeks of unbroken cold in February and March.

Seems like patterns have been pretty consistent and streaky this year, stretching 3-6 weeks sometimes.

[Guest CulverJosh]

So happy!

You wont be later when its raining though.

[TacomaWaWx]

Nice morning with filtered sunshine, currently 53 degrees at 10:30am.

[Blizzard777]

Out of the gates GFS 384

wet Halloween 

 

low of 41 earlier and foggy as well.

cleared out now

51*

[ShawniganLake]

47 here. Looks like the rain isn’t far off now.

[TT-SEA]

Out of the gates GFS 384

wet Halloween 

 

low of 41 earlier and foggy as well.

cleared out now

51*

 

 

Only goes out through 5 a.m. on Halloween currently.

 

At face value on this run... Halloween evening could end up being OK if you extrapolate the frontal passage in the early morning that day.  Stay tuned!    

[Jesse]

Seems like patterns have been pretty consistent and streaky this year, stretching 3-6 weeks sometimes.

Patterns flipping back and forth every few weeks is pretty normal. The longevity of the February/March progression was definitely abnormal, but things evened out later in the spring and summer. This summer actually had a lot of variability at 500mb, we were never stuck in a similar pattern for too long. Same goes for this fall so far.

[Kayla]

Patterns flipping back and forth every few weeks is pretty normal. The longevity of the February/March progression was definitely abnormal, but things evened out later in the spring and summer. This summer actually had a lot of variability at 500mb, we were never stuck in a similar pattern for too long. Same goes for this fall so far.

 

Yeah, we haven't been stuck in the same pattern for the last 6 weeks like some are alluding to. Been plenty variable over the past 6 weeks. We've seen some significant blocking recently like we did back in Feb/Mar but only for a few days rather than 6 weeks straight.

 

I've never seen a pattern so completely stuck like we had in Feb/Mar this year. We haven't come anywhere close to that since.

[Blizzard777]

Only goes out through 5 a.m. on Halloween currently.

 

At face value on this run... Halloween evening could end up being OK if you extrapolate the frontal passage in the early morning that day.  Stay tuned!    

This is true and of course this will flip flop back and fourth 

Plenty of time

[Frontal Snowsquall]

What do I do if I just accidentally took that map literally???

Then head over to Lowe's and get this.

 

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, we haven't been stuck in the same pattern for the last 6 weeks like some are alluding to. Been plenty variable over the past 6 weeks. We've seen some significant blocking recently like we did back in Feb/Mar but only for a few days rather than 6 weeks straight.

 

I've never seen a pattern so completely stuck like we had in Feb/Mar this year. We haven't come anywhere close to that since.

Backyard observations notwithstanding... the overall pattern has been stuck for about 5 weeks now with general troughing over the West (particularly the PNW) and a permanent ridge and warmth in the East.

 

Similar to last February and early March in that regard. And with a couple periods of record cold and snow in there.