CentralNebWeather Posted October 30, 2019 Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 Solid 2 inches here as snow continues. 19 degrees with a wind chill of 6. Snow is very dry and powdery and is blowing around easily. Some very small drifts in our parking lot and my driveway this morning of about 6 inches is kind of cool. Streets are a little dicey so I put the truck in 4X4 Hi. No late starts in this area but several west and southwest of here. Reminds me of a Dec.-Feb. snow. What a winter this could shape up to be. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shakjen Posted October 30, 2019 Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 Light rain frozen mix here now. Looks like we got about 3” overnight but hard to tell with the mix packing it down now. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 30, 2019 Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 6Z Euro doing better I think 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 30, 2019 Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 I can't help but think about how this system will look like in future cycles and could end up being a true Arklatex bomb if the pattern sets up just right. It's nice to see the models show a significant intensification of the SLP as it tracks up the OHV where the LRC's Long Term Long Wave Trough is taking shape. Truly a drool-worthy map for the mid-winter potential right where this has been lacking for several seasons now.. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 30, 2019 Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 Snow is starting to accumulate as I have my first coating of the season. Nice big flakes falling and some heavier radar returns trying to budge north. Extremely sharp cutoff right over my county. Coldest temp of the season (32F)...#letitsnow Congrats on your early first snow! Hope to join the club tomorrow night myself. Again, kudos on a call for winter's early arrival in the heartland. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 30, 2019 Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 Tom, do you think this system will close off sooner in the next cycle? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianJK Posted October 30, 2019 Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 About 2.5” on the deck, an inch or so of slop on the sidewalks and even streets, and still coming down quite heavily. Did not want nor expect this, but that doesn’t matter when it comes to Mother Nature. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 30, 2019 Author Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 Tom, do you think this system will close off sooner in the next cycle?Every cycle is different and behaves different. I’ve seen good setups in Oct/Nov turn out to be worse in the Winter bc of many reasons...Stronger jet stream, lack of blocking, etc. It can go both ways. It really depends on the pattern leading up to the storm systems target date. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted October 30, 2019 Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 Sitting in my classroom before school starts, I have a great view. My room is on the 2nd floor and has 3 large windows facing north. I get to see the snow blowing off the roof of other wings of the building. It is blowing very easily as it is very dry and powdery. The simple joys of nature are just beautiful. One more quick story. In early September we had a girl move to our school from the Dominican Republic. She is a Junior. She had never seen snow and had not felt temps below 70. Our early cold in October was a shock to her system. When it was snowing on Monday afternoon, she had a look on her face of a kid on Christmas morning. She just said how beautiful it was and couldn't wait to go outside and feel it on her skin. I heard other students complaining about snow, but her heart felt love of seeing something brand new like snow was for her, was one of those great moments that teachers talk about. Thanks for letting me share. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 30, 2019 Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 Truly a drool-worthy map for the mid-winter potential right where this has been lacking for several seasons now.. 20191030 7am Surface.jpgMan, great setup for hvy snows here in our neck of the woods. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erburns18 Posted October 30, 2019 Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 30, 2019 Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 Forecast here going w rain changing to snowshowers tomorrow nite (late) and continuing into Friday morning. Minor accumulations possible, if at all. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 30, 2019 Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 Look at this GOM moisture.....boy o boy, if this was later in the season........ 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted October 30, 2019 Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 There goes the snow! Here looks really dry Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted October 30, 2019 Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 12z nam slightly weaker and east... decent snow still gets up to Cedar Rapids, but we're down to 0.30" or so and and there's a sharp drop-off as you head nw of CR. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 30, 2019 Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 12z nam slightly weaker and east... decent snow still gets up to Cedar Rapids, but we're down to 0.30" or so and and there's a sharp drop-off as you head nw of CR.I think when it's all said and done we will look at this run of the NAM and it will have nailed it. We just needed it to close off a little sooner. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 30, 2019 Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 12z NAMhttps://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2019103012&fh=24&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_mw&p=snku_acc&m=nam4km 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted October 30, 2019 Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 One and only snow band not wanting to push in. After this looks finished. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 30, 2019 Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 12z NAMhttps://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2019103012&fh=24&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_mw&p=snku_acc&m=nam4kmNice! Are ya included in that? Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 30, 2019 Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 One and only snow band not wanting to push in. After this looks finished. Dont worry bud, we have lots of plenty Winter for you to enjoy the freshly fallen snow. Sit tight and enjoy the ride my friend. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted October 30, 2019 Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted October 30, 2019 Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 3k NAM looks the best for Eastern Iowa, but quite a bit lower on snow totals than previous runs. If I get 2" out of this I think I'll be lucky. Very interesting storm for sure and a ton of model discrepancies over the past week. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 30, 2019 Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 Nice! Are ya included in that?Yes but I'm looking at 2.5 max, but I'll take it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 30, 2019 Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 Yes but I'm looking at 2.5 max, but I'll take it.In a heart beat right..no questions ask! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted October 30, 2019 Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 This thing started a slow shift east on the models a few days ago and never really stopped. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted October 30, 2019 Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 There is already snow in Central Iowa. I didn't know this storm was supposed to have snow already. I thought this was supposed to start tonight. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman1 Posted October 30, 2019 Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 6z GFS..........Illinois Valley Bullseye = 13.2! Question is, how long is this backside really going to hold Halloween morning/afternoon? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 30, 2019 Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 In a heart beat right..no questions ask! All day long. We haven't had accu,ulating snow in Oct since '96 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 30, 2019 Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 All day long. We haven't had accu,ulating snow in Oct since '96 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted October 30, 2019 Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 12z ICON east again.... Cedar Rapids down to only 0.15" precip. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 30, 2019 Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 While the 12z Surf reflection looks impressive for the Mitt, and 850's look fine, 2m temps don't get below freezing until late late Thurs night. What a difference a few degrees will make on this. So tough to get cold in here, especially with the fuller, warmer GL's we currently have. Maps for 7pm Halloween evening: Per the NAM-12 (which I like graphically btw), a transition from RN to a mix/wet flakes occurs between 3-4pm and we get about a 8-9 hour "window" for the snow flakes to fly before the precip shield pulls east. Winds should be brisk, but nothing too extreme. Certainly nothing close to Nov '89 bliz memories. We'll have to try again at that later on, lol 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted October 30, 2019 Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 While the 12z Surf reflection looks impressive for the Mitt, and 850's look fine, 2m temps don't get below freezing until late late Thurs night. What a difference a few degrees will make on this. So tough to get cold in here, especially with the fuller, warmer GL's we currently have. Maps for 7pm Halloween evening: 20191030 12z NAM32 850 Temps h36.png20191030 12z NAM32 2m Temps h36.png Per the NAM-12 (which I like graphically btw), a transition from RN to a mix/wet flakes occurs between 3-4pm and we get about a 8-9 hour "window" for the snow flakes to fly before the precip shield pulls east. Winds should be brisk, but nothing too extreme. Certainly nothing close to Nov '89 bliz memories. We'll have to try again at that later on, lol 20191030 12z namconus_ref_frzn_us_fh32-42.gifNicely shown area of wrap around snow entering my area. Beautiful. I'll be satisfied w snow falling and not sticking. At least, its a nice welcome to the Autumn season. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted October 30, 2019 Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 There is already snow in Central Iowa. I didn't know this storm was supposed to have snow already. I thought this was supposed to start tonight. Yep- and the smallest flakes I've ever seen. Could snow like this for eternity and it wouldn't add up to a .1". Makes pixie dust look like huge... 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted October 30, 2019 Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 NWS recent update..gonna score my first winter headline of the new season?? Stay tuned.. .UPDATE...Issued at 1045 AM EDT Wed Oct 30 2019As we forecast yesterday the snow did develop this morning, beforesunrise, causing some monitor accumulations as seen on some ofthe our web cams (like Bangor and Allegan) plus the snow issticking on the grass and on cars at our office. The thermalprofiles indicate the atmosphere will become to warm for snow toreach the ground by early afternoon. We do not expect andsignificant accumulations (more than an inch) from this morningsevent.We are thinking about some sort of winter weather headline forThursday into Thursday night as the latest model run (NAM12) weshould get some measurable snow. We have to coordinate with nearby offices yet through. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted October 30, 2019 Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 12 GFS looks like the NAM just more juiced. I can only hope it verifies lol. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted October 30, 2019 Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 GFS with the final cave to the Euro and even the Canadian. Oh well, 2" in October is pretty good. It will be gone in a day anyways. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted October 30, 2019 Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 GFS with the final cave to the Euro and even the Canadian. Oh well, 2" in October is pretty good. It will be gone in a day anyways. That's the way I've been thinking about it. Unless we were going to get bullseyed, it's not the end of the world considering it'd be gone so quick anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted October 30, 2019 Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 Yep, it's looking like a 1-2" event for my area after all the model-following over the last week. I'm sure this won't be the last time we are teased this winter. Hopefully, a couple biggies pan out. 3 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted October 30, 2019 Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 Yep, it's looking like a 1-2" event for my area after all the model-following over the last week. I'm sure this won't be the last time we are teased this winter. Hopefully, a couple biggies pan out. As I've said before, I just hope we don't get this little early snow and then nothing again until 2020. I always fear that'll happen, but we shall see with time. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gabel23 Posted October 30, 2019 Report Share Posted October 30, 2019 We got about another half and inch to an inch of snow. I'm hoping it sticks around tonight as we have the Hallmark channel coming to my wife's hometown in David City! Believe it or not, this is where the channel originated from! Looking forward to it, here's a link to the events that is planned for tonight. https://www.1011now.com/content/news/Hallmark-arrives-in-David-City-on-Wednesday-564088681.html?fbclid=IwAR1UpMX1GM6j9xeVa6w0sWT9aCynxZa5Ncul7dq2kv5r8QrDYOIwfU8Anh8 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.