10/29-10/31 Halloween Winter Storm

[Hawkeye]

1.6" on my board, 1.9" deck, 2.0" car.  I wish the board was closer to the other two.

[hlcater]

Measured 1.5” here in IC. Seems I’m lagging local totals again.

[East Dubzz]

Nice snowfall right now. I’d guess maybe a half inch has accumulated. Or maybe closer to three quarters of an inch. Hard to tell for sure. Not huge flakes, but not small either. It’ll add up if it continues most of the night.

[Bryan1117]

What a great start to snow season. Hopefully it’s a sign of things to come this winter. Good to see flakes flying!

Congrats on the early "scores" to all of you peeps to the south and east of me, get out and enjoy the snowfall if you can.

 

I am kind of bummed that today's snow was a bust around here, but I am not going to let it get me down as it is WAY too early in the season to get worked up over snow. 

[brianc400]

It’s been sleety rain here for the last hour. The rain has picked up. It will be interesting to see how much effect the warm Lake Michigan has 12 miles west.

[East Dubzz]

Snow is actually starting to stick to the sidewalks and street now.

[hlcater]

My rates are acutally really solid right now. Probably 1/2-3/4”/hr. I did just do a measurement and came up with 2.3”.

[Hawkeye]

The gap continues to widen between the measurements on my snowboard and deck/car.  The snowboard has 2" while the deck & car are up to 2.6".  My snowboard has only gained 0.8" in nearly four hours, so the rate is pretty low.

[Grizzcoat]

Though the DSM area overall got the shaft - this last band on the backside produced .5" in one hour. You guys East of here should be able to easily add another inch or so. Finally got the right size flakes rather than that pixie dust stuff.

[Minny_Weather]

Just left home. Insanely foggy. My apartment will likely see its first flakes and measurable snow tonight while I'm gone. 46.8°F

[Clinton]

Good morning and happy white Halloween!  Woke up to about a 1.5 inches on the ground and some stiff winds.  Can't wait for the sun to come up so I can better see the white landscape.  It's gonna be a cold one for the kiddos tonight.

[Tom]

The switch over to SN happened about an hour or so ago and its snowing at a pretty good clip.  Nice defo band signature starting to develop on the radar.  There is some nice banding across the IA/IL border.  Storm system is certainly showing signs of deepening/strengthening.  The wind is rather gusty also which is blowing the SN sideways.  Current temp of 32F, Wind out of N 17/G 25mph, WC 21F.  Not the typical Halloween forecast you see every year. 

 

A few days ago, the Euro showed winds more northerly which allowed for a quicker switchover over here along with colder temps aloft.  I'd say that is a win for the Euro.  On a side note, interestingly, with the colder temps aloft and a NNE flow off the lake, the higher rez models are picking up on Lehs along the western shores of LM in WI/IL.  That's pretty wild to see.  There may be a lake plume that develops later today and pivots into IN/MI.  Some of our MI members look to get swiped by it.

 

08z HRRR showing it knocking on Jaster's place right when the Trick-O'Treaters come knocking on his door!

 

 

 

 

 

Talk about a rapidly deepening storm, this system is projected to go from 1006mb into the 980's by later this evening!  Wind Advisories have been prompted for nearly all of MI/OH/IN and points east.

[Clinton]

The switch over to SN happened about an hour or so ago and its snowing at a pretty good clip.  Nice defo band signature starting to develop on the radar.  There is some nice banding across the IA/IL border.  Storm system is certainly showing signs of deepening/strengthening.  The wind is rather gusty also which is blowing the SN sideways.  Current temp of 32F, Wind out of N 17/G 25mph, WC 21F.  Not the typical Halloween forecast you see every year. 

 

A few days ago, the Euro showed winds more northerly which allowed for a quicker switchover over here along with colder temps aloft.  I'd say that is a win for the Euro.  On a side note, interestingly, with the colder temps aloft and a NNE flow off the lake, the higher rez models are picking up on Lehs along the western shores of LM in WI/IL.  That's pretty wild to see.  There may be a lake plume that develops later today and pivots into IN/MI.  Some of our MI members look to get swiped by it.

 

08z HRRR showing it knocking on Jaster's place right when the Trick-O'Treaters come knocking on his door!

 

 

 

 

 

Talk about a rapidly deepening storm, this system is project to go from 1006mb into the 980's by later this evening!  Wind Advisories have been prompted for nearly all of MI/OH/IN and points east.

Good luck today, hope you score big!  

[Minny_Weather]

Currently at a travel stop just South of Saginaw. Just rain here still, but the snow line isn't too far away, that's just North of Bay City (about 30 miles from me). Waiting here until dawn as I want daylight to drive in the heavy snow at the rain/snow line. 41°F.

[james1976]

Walked out the door this morning and was surprised to see the ground was a bit white. Only about a tenth of an inch but just enough to add a little whiteness and there were actually a few slick spots on the way to work. Happy white Halloween!

[East Dubzz]

Have somewhere between 3.75 - 4”. I’ll take it!

[badgerwx]

5.5" Grant County...I live about 40 mins NE of DBQ

[Tom]

Wow, you guys scored nicely out west!  As daylight emerges here, the landscape is turning white again as I have a coating of snow.  Back-to-Back days with snow falling in late Oct is awesome to see.  The leaves are flying off the trees now and I think we will see many bare trees by the weekend.  Glad to see it will be dry so I can finally do some yard work.

[jaster220]

Brutal Halloween in store from about a county north of me on N/NWrd.. 

 

 

DISCUSSION...(Today through next Wednesday)
Issued at 327 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

Forecast problems include nailing down snow amounts and potential
for winds gusting over 40 mph late this afternoon and evening.
There were no changes made to the snow amounts with this update
but the amounts had been tweaked down last evening. Area of mid
level f-gen forcing moves through today with colder air wrapping
into the storm circulation with rain changing to snow by this
afternoon. We expect 2 to 4 inches across the northern zones by
the time the snow tapers off tonight, especially the higher
elevations of Osceola County with lesser amounts closer to Lake
Michigan. Some snow may accumulate on the roads after dark even in
areas that are not in the advisory so this will have to be
watched and the advisory may need to be expanded south and east.

We expect some icy or snowy roads may persist into the Friday
morning commute but lower dew points advecting in may help the
cause by causing some sublimation of ice on surfaces.

Forecast wind profiles show potential for 40 knot winds to mix to
the surface at times as strong cold advection gets underway late
this afternoon and through the evening. Trick or treaters will be
dealing with wind chills in the 20s.

Friday looks tranquil but a clipper on Saturday should bring snow
showers with lake enhanced snow continuing into Sunday. Another
clipper early next week could bring more snow.

 

 

This would be a sharp transition around Turkey Day, let alone a month earlier. 

[East Dubzz]

Measured 4” before I left this morning for work. Light snow still falling.

 

It’s actually snowing a lot better than I expected it to be this morning, even if it won’t be for too much longer.

[BMT]

4.6” when I left my house this morning. Still snowing nicely

[james1976]

Now that it is daylight the scene is very winter like. Just enough of a coating to make things white. Most trees are bare. Its cloudy and 27°. Great way to cap off October! I finish the month with exactly 1 inch of snow which was mostly from the mon nite system.

[Minny_Weather]

Training band over Roscommon. I'll be driving thru it in about 40 minutes. Currently in Standish. All rain. 37°F.

[Hawkeye]

4.6” when I left my house this morning. Still snowing nicely

 

What kind of surfaces are you measuring on?  Unfortunately, I'm getting different totals on different surfaces.  The car and deck are 4-4.5", but the snowboard is only 3.5".  The grass is also 3.5" (There's a big air gap between the soil and top of the grass).  The problem with the deck is it's small and doesn't reach out much beyond the eave of the house, so I'm always afraid of contamination from roof blowoff.

[BMT]

What kind of surfaces are you measuring on?  Unfortunately, I'm getting different totals on different surfaces.  The car and deck are 4-4.5", but the snowboard is only 3.5".  The grass is also 3.5" (There's a big air gap between the soil and top of the grass).

I used my deck and picnic table.  Did not use measurements in the grass as those were crazy different depending on the spot.  I looked at the NWS submitted totals near me, and 4.6 seemed to be in line with other reports.  there was a 5" in Hiawatha.

[jaster220]

The switch over to SN happened about an hour or so ago and its snowing at a pretty good clip.  Nice defo band signature starting to develop on the radar.  There is some nice banding across the IA/IL border.  Storm system is certainly showing signs of deepening/strengthening.  The wind is rather gusty also which is blowing the SN sideways.  Current temp of 32F, Wind out of N 17/G 25mph, WC 21F.  Not the typical Halloween forecast you see every year. 

 

A few days ago, the Euro showed winds more northerly which allowed for a quicker switchover over here along with colder temps aloft.  I'd say that is a win for the Euro.  On a side note, interestingly, with the colder temps aloft and a NNE flow off the lake, the higher rez models are picking up on Lehs along the western shores of LM in WI/IL.  That's pretty wild to see.  There may be a lake plume that develops later today and pivots into IN/MI.  Some of our MI members look to get swiped by it.

 

08z HRRR showing it knocking on Jaster's place right when the Trick-O'Treaters come knocking on his door!

 

 

 

 

 

Talk about a rapidly deepening storm, this system is projected to go from 1006mb into the 980's by later this evening!  Wind Advisories have been prompted for nearly all of MI/OH/IN and points east.

 

Appreciate the shout-out buddy!

 

 

I'm a huge fan of aviation updates as you often get "the rest of the story" out of the NWS office and further break-down of conditions forthcoming. They see your call Tom on the LEh plume. Could really rip (mini bliz conditions for a couple hrs??) 

 

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)

Issued at 723 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

 

Showery activity and mist will prevail through the morning hours

with IFR and pockets of LIFR cigs and northwesterly winds. Steady

rain will develop during the afternoon hours and transition to

all snow at MKG first, then GRR/AZO/BTL, with RASN preferred at

LAN/JXN. Drops in visibility to 1 mile are possible at GRR/MKG

during the evening hours with the snow. Winds will shift

northwestward during the evening and gust upwards of 30-35 kts at

all TAF sites, with gusts of 35-40 kts possible at MKG, AZO, and

JXN. Gradually improving conditions are expected thereafter with

cigs becoming MVFR/BKN025 and eventually 030 toward the end of the

TAF period.

 

A snow- squall feature is possible this evening at MKG/AZO and

possibly GRR/BTL from 00-03Z with locally reduced visibilities to

1/2SM and wind gusts to 40 kts. For now, will offer reduced

visibilities and stronger winds at MKG and AZO where confidence is

highest, though worse conditions may be introduced at GRR/BTL in the

18Z TAF package.

[Iowawx]

I measured 5.0 inches of snow at 8:00am. Light snow continues to fall so we will add to that total a bit more.

[Niko]

.WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT

FRIDAY...
 

* WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph

  expected.
 

* WHERE...All of southeast Michigan.
 

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Friday, with peak

  winds around or just before Midnight.
 

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree

  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.
 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures will be falling into the lower

  30s late this evening leading to wind chills down in the lower

  20s.
 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
 

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high

profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.
 
 

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook

National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI

345 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019
 

MIZ047-053-060>062-068>070-075-076-082-083-010830-

Midland-Saginaw-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-

Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-

345 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019
 

This hazardous weather outlook is for most of southeast Michigan.
 

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight
 

Wind advisory in effect this evening to early Friday morning.

Refer to the latest hazard message for details.
 

Rain changing to snow this evening before tapering off overnight.

Accumulations of a dusting to 2 inches inches expected, mainly on

elevated/grassy surfaces. Least amounts occuring over Wayne/Monroe

counties, with the highest amounts occuring along/north M-46.

 

[Tom]

I measured 5.0 inches of snow at 8:00am. Light snow continues to fall so we will add to that total a bit more.

No more complaining that E IA doesn't get hit with the most snow from a storm system!    Just teasing ya...I think both of our places are in for a good season.  #sharethewealth

[Tom]

Appreciate the shout-out buddy!

 

 

I'm a huge fan of aviation updates as you often get "the rest of the story" out of the NWS office and further break-down of conditions forthcoming. They see your call Tom on the LEh plume. Could really rip (mini bliz conditions for a couple hrs??) 

 

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)

Issued at 723 AM EDT Thu Oct 31 2019

 

Showery activity and mist will prevail through the morning hours

with IFR and pockets of LIFR cigs and northwesterly winds. Steady

rain will develop during the afternoon hours and transition to

all snow at MKG first, then GRR/AZO/BTL, with RASN preferred at

LAN/JXN. Drops in visibility to 1 mile are possible at GRR/MKG

during the evening hours with the snow. Winds will shift

northwestward during the evening and gust upwards of 30-35 kts at

all TAF sites, with gusts of 35-40 kts possible at MKG, AZO, and

JXN. Gradually improving conditions are expected thereafter with

cigs becoming MVFR/BKN025 and eventually 030 toward the end of the

TAF period.

 

A snow- squall feature is possible this evening at MKG/AZO and

possibly GRR/BTL from 00-03Z with locally reduced visibilities to

1/2SM and wind gusts to 40 kts. For now, will offer reduced

visibilities and stronger winds at MKG and AZO where confidence is

highest, though worse conditions may be introduced at GRR/BTL in the

18Z TAF package.

Speaking of the Lake Plume, it's already starting to form and hugging the west shoreline...

[St Paul Storm]

Congrats to everyone shattering records with this snow! Crazy! We learned 2 things this week...snow will accumulate in October, and climo doesn’t always apply.

 

Keep the pics coming!

[Madtown]

....this is just awesome fat flakes, wind whipping, another 3" or so down and only October!

[Money]

Pretty sure we had about 5 inches of snow from last system and this one which has to be near a record for October

[FV-Mike]

I measured 5.0 inches of snow at 8:00am. Light snow continues to fall so we will add to that total a bit more.

Crazy to see that amount of snow with leaves on trees!

[jaster220]

I measured 5.0 inches of snow at 8:00am. Light snow continues to fall so we will add to that total a bit more.

 

Geez, looks like mid-winter aside from that tree full of green leafs 

[Niko]

 WOW...radar is loaded w moisture.

[Madtown]

looks like the nam had the best idea of accumulation in the wisco neck of the woods

[jaster220]

This has been a 2-part system with a large gap between rainfall. Currently only a bit over 1" total with yet another "gap" knocking on my door. Doubt we get anywhere close to the 1.6 to 1.9" qpf models were touting. 

[East Dubzz]

Dubuque Regional Airport measured 5.2"... very nice. I'm closer to 4.2" inches, I'm guessing. 

 

That would mean Dubuque officially has 8.4" of snow this week. 

[jaster220]

0.2” ORD. Snowiest Halloween on record.