November 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Jesse]

I think the most we can hope for right now is a January 2006 redux.

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF shows a whopping .26 at SEA over the next 10 days.

[TacomaWaWx]

37 here at 11:30. Not as foggy as last night.

[Requiem]

I'm just excited for the chilly east wind! Always fun!

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF really likes the area just south of Whatcom County for snow Monday night.  Kind of makes sense with the strong Fraser outflow being shown.  Whatcom County itself will be too dry and places south not quite cold enough, although it shows a little bit for some of the Puget Sound region.

 

On the subject of outflow...we have good model agreement on a sustained period of strong N to NE gradients over the northern part of WA next week.  That should flood the state with a good amount of low level cold / dry air.  Right now the ECMWF is going for highs around 40 and lows in the upper teens and 20s for much of Western WA late next week.

 

Even though the theme of crazy blocking is remaining constant the details are changing pretty dramatically on a daily basis once we get past day 5.  Week two is up in the air at this point.

[snow_wizard]

I think the most we can hope for right now is a January 2006 redux.

 

This is actually pretty different than the blocking in Dec 2005.  I doubt it will lead to the same thing.  This year is on a whole different level IMO.

[snow_wizard]

A bit of an outlier, but those were by far the coldest Canadian ensembles yet. I like where this is heading! It's reminding me very much of October where we ended up with colder troughs and stronger blocking. Models kept insisting the ridge would fade away and every time NOPE! Colder runs ahead!

 

The ECMWF at day 10 looks full of potential (if you look forward a couple of days) to me also.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The ECMWF at day 10 looks full of potential (if you look forward a couple of days) to me also.

 

GFS ensembles were not especially torchy in the long range.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Another dry December recently which wasn't terrible was December 2017. Ended up a top 15 cold December at Eugene. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

You know as long as we rack up cold anomalies I won't complain. 

[Phil]

I think the most we can hope for right now is a January 2006 redux.

That was a zonal January IIRC. Which is probably not in the cards this year.

[Perturbed Member]

Looks like we're going to get a decent infusion of cold air and then the ridge is going to slide back overhead here by early December in a rather strange looking 500mb pattern. The GEM looks noticeably different than the GFS and Euro but I will ignore it in the longer run since I feel it has been playing catch up with the GFS/Euro. 

 

I was hoping we'd get some half decent period of precip but pretty obvious it will remain bone dry. At least we should have some decent cold and plenty of fake cold after. I'll take this as a warning shot. I'm still hoping that we can somehow get some surface low to sneak in and give us some snow, wouldn't take that much to happen...

[snow_wizard]

There was quite a dramatic intensification of the GOA block after day 10 in the EPS vs the 12z.  Good sign.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like we're going to get a decent infusion of cold air and then the ridge is going to slide back overhead here by early December in a rather strange looking 500mb pattern. The GEM looks noticeably different than the GFS and Euro but I will ignore it in the longer run since I feel it has been playing catch up with the GFS/Euro. 

 

I was hoping we'd get some half decent period of precip but pretty obvious it will remain bone dry. At least we should have some decent cold and plenty of fake cold after. I'll take this as a warning shot. 

 

No doubt this is going to be a real cold / fake cold hybrid.  Next week should rack up some very chilly anomalies.

[Perturbed Member]

No doubt this is going to be a real cold / fake cold hybrid.  Next week should rack up some very chilly anomalies.

 

Yeah, I'm still hoping we can get some low to spin up and sneak in to quickly drop a bit of frozen precip over us after the cold gets here. We've seen those things show up out of nearly no where plenty of times before. Fortunately we have all season still for this.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Another chillier than expected morning. 32 at PDX 28 SLE.

[Gradient Keeper]

6z GFS continued the theme of a strong, more amplified block Days 3.5 to 5. GEFS The Dalles near -13c mean temp. Coldest ensembles for Gorge. Long range was fairly close to seeing the block reorganize, then pivot pulling another major blast of cold air awfully close to us. 00z EPS was notably colder Day 4-8. Watching 12z runs for the trend to continue with a stronger, more amplified block Day 3-5, 500mb heights for Anchorage around 560dam, and what happens after Day 6 with the block.

 

12z GFS in 15 minutes

[Jesse]

Frosty again and 28 this morning.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z EPS Day 4-8 looked notably colder. Not bitter, but colder.

 

12z ECMWF in 2 hours 26 minutes

[Esquimalt]

00z EPS Day 4-8 looked notably colder. Not bitter, but colder.

 

12z ECMWF in 2 hours 26 minutes

What about days 10 to 15?

[FroYoBro]

It almost looks like we had a trace of snow last night!

[Gradient Keeper]

Cold morning. 30.8 with fog developing near West Gresham.

[Gradient Keeper]

What about days 10 to 15?

Jim said the block reorganizes with retrogression over Gulf of Alaska after Day 10. Sounds good to me.

[MossMan]

6z GFS continued the theme of a strong, more amplified block Days 3.5 to 5. GEFS The Dalles near -13c mean temp. Coldest ensembles for Gorge. Long range was fairly close to seeing the block reorganize, then pivot pulling another major blast of cold air awfully close to us. 00z EPS was notably colder Day 4-8. Watching 12z runs for the trend to continue with a stronger, more amplified block Day 3-5, 500mb heights for Anchorage around 560dam, and what happens after Day 6 with the block.

 

12z GFS in 15 minutes

Seems like the bottom keeps falling out during the 12z model suites then we have a slow recovery during the later models...hopefully that will not be the case this morning.

[catnip]

What about days 10 to 15?

[Gradient Keeper]

FE044FBA-1C21-4B5B-9C1E-84E5481BB17B.png

Just need amplification.

[TT-SEA]

This 10-15 mean:

 

 

 

...could just be picking up on this type of pattern...

 

 

 

 

Here is the 850mb temp mean for the 10-15 day period:

 

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GFS Day 2

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 2 block bit more amplified

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3

 

[TacomaWaWx]

Dropped down to 33 earlier this morning here, now 35.

[Gradient Keeper]

Well that's new. BIG low off the southern Oregon coast.

 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 3.5

 

[GobBluth]

Well that's new. BIG low off the southern Oregon coast.

 

 

Stronger and slightly more north than previous models.

[FroYoBro]

That low is back in play! Southern Oregon gets a good snowfall on this run. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Day 3.5

 

Big development! Snow for Tiger at least.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

 

[TacomaWaWx]

Big development! Snow for Tiger at least.

Slight north trend it seems. Would not surprise me if it ends up being farther north than that by the time the day comes. That’s why you can never really be certain even 72-96 hours out. Little changes make a big difference.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5 colder than 00z, 6z

 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Slight north trend it seems. Would not surprise me if it ends up being farther north than that by the time the day comes. That’s why you can never really be certain even 72-96 hours out. Little changes make a big difference.

I strongly believe that future runs will show it will making landfall mid to north Oregon. #positivethoughtsmakesishappen