Deweydog Posted November 27, 2019 Report Share Posted November 27, 2019 If we have to wait until January for our December 1990 redux (according to flatiron) I’m gonna pout/scream! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 27, 2019 Report Share Posted November 27, 2019 If we have to wait until January for our December 1990 redux (according to flatiron) I’m gonna pout/scream!TigerFallsAndido hack ur account? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 27, 2019 Report Share Posted November 27, 2019 Yes. Sitting here on November 27 looking back over the entire winter that has already happened and is over now...that is all we got.All of these HOTT take maps that Tim is posting is making several posters including myself nervous.... 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 27, 2019 Report Share Posted November 27, 2019 All of these HOTT take maps that Tim is posting is making several posters including myself nervous....It will work out eventually. But it's not in sight yet. All these improvements are a mirage for now. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 27, 2019 Report Share Posted November 27, 2019 All of these HOTT take maps that Tim is posting is making several posters including myself nervous....Hot garbage might be a better phrase. Those maps have looked warm in the long range for weeks, and here we are sitting in the midst of a decent cold event at the end of a near to below average November with the potential for more action ahead, according to the GFS ensembles. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 27, 2019 Report Share Posted November 27, 2019 Hot garbage might be a better phrase. Those maps have looked warm in the long range for weeks, and here we are sitting in the midst of a decent cold event at the end of a near to below average November with the potential for more action ahead according to the GFS ensembles. EPS has clearly lead the way since late October. No question. Warm at the 850mb level does not mean warm at the surface in the cold season. But it does mean that lowland snow is very unlikely. Its been a very dry month and the upper levels were warm for most of the month. Those EPS maps have been extremely accurate for weeks... the GFS ensembles are always showing it turning wetter and yet it stays dry. Only in the last couple days has turned colder at the upper levels and it will not last long. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted November 27, 2019 Report Share Posted November 27, 2019 SEA is at 47.9 for the month through yesterday... which +2.0 per the NWS.Yeah. I just looked it up. That’s my bad. I think there was a 60 earlier this month and a few high 50s makes it warmer. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 27, 2019 Report Share Posted November 27, 2019 850mb temp anomaly over the last month... the EPS nailed it.The real consistent thing the EPS has been showing since late October is drier than normal. There has not been a run in at least 5 weeks that has shown wetter than normal over the PNW. Hard to argue with accuracy of that prediction. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted November 27, 2019 Report Share Posted November 27, 2019 I just want some more East wind! I can wait for snow. 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 27, 2019 Report Share Posted November 27, 2019 All of these HOTT take maps that Tim is posting is making several posters including myself nervous....The EPS would have had you believe November was going to be very dull and boring. Don't believe it. Garbage. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 27, 2019 Report Share Posted November 27, 2019 Yes. Sitting here on November 27 looking back over the entire winter that has already happened and is over now...that is all we got. What a lame winter we’ve had...too bad it’s over now...winter cancel. Gonna be in the low to mid 60s from December to February and then full on summer conditions by mid April. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 27, 2019 Report Share Posted November 27, 2019 What a lame winter we’ve had...too bad it’s over now...winter cancel. Gonna be in the low to mid 60s from December to February and then full on summer conditions by mid April. Don't play that strawman game with him. Randy is just anxious for something soon. He is not saying the entire winter is hopeless. And if he does say that... its just reverse psychology. He does not really think that. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OysterPrintout Posted November 27, 2019 Report Share Posted November 27, 2019 God grant me the strength to do anything with as much confidence as Tim posting long range EPS maps. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 27, 2019 Report Share Posted November 27, 2019 Don't play that strawman game with him. Randy is just anxious for something soon. He is not saying the entire winter is hopeless. And if he does say that... its just reverse psychology. He does not really think that. Not even sure who randy is...don’t know all of your names. Wasn’t even directed at anyone specifically...just about the general idea of people constantly saying this winter is dead before it’s even began. Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 27, 2019 Report Share Posted November 27, 2019 God grant me the strength to do anything with as much confidence as Tim posting long range EPS maps. Sometimes the EPS is all over the place and its not worth posting because its changing so much. It was like that pretty much all summer... overpromising ridging and warmth. That was garbage. But it has been consistently leading the way for quite a long time. It obviously does very well with this pattern. Until it starts to become inconsistent again... its probably going to be right. People saying to throw it out or that its garbage are kidding themselves. I am not sure how it could have done any better since late October. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 27, 2019 Report Share Posted November 27, 2019 Not even sure who randy is...don’t know all of your names. Wasn’t even directed at anyone specifically...just about the general idea of people constantly saying this winter is dead before it’s even began. Randy is Mossman. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 27, 2019 Report Share Posted November 27, 2019 The touch, the feel of the EPS. The fabric of our lives. -Aaron Neville 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 27, 2019 Report Share Posted November 27, 2019 And remember... the EPS was the consistent rock during the February and March cold spell. It was so consistent that I could not tell one run from the next. If the EPS starts showing cold consistently again this winter... the same people will be praising it. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El_Nina Posted November 27, 2019 Report Share Posted November 27, 2019 I think I mentioned before how we should just start gauging our winters based on the 850 mb temps. That's where the snowpack is and we also can be "cold" when under ridging. The truth is we have no chance at systems or snow under a ridge. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest CulverJosh Posted November 27, 2019 Report Share Posted November 27, 2019 EPS is experimental by definition. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 27, 2019 Report Share Posted November 27, 2019 I think I mentioned before how we should just start gauging our winters based on the 850 mb temps. That's where the snowpack is and we also can be "cold" when under ridging. The truth is we have no chance at systems or snow under a ridge. Yes... the 850mb temps are really important and tell a different story. It can obviously be cold at the surface with warm 850mb temps. But its not nearly as good as cold 850mb temps. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted November 27, 2019 Report Share Posted November 27, 2019 EPS EPS EPS EPS 1 Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 27, 2019 Report Share Posted November 27, 2019 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 27, 2019 Report Share Posted November 27, 2019 I don’t live anywhere near 5,000 feet ASL. 850mb temps are MEANINGLESS. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 27, 2019 Report Share Posted November 27, 2019 I don’t leave anywhere near 5,000 feet ASL. 850mb temps are MEANINGLESS.Enter Phil. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted November 27, 2019 Report Share Posted November 27, 2019 And remember... the EPS was the consistent rock during the February and March cold spell. It was so consistent that I could not tell one run from the next. If the EPS starts showing cold consistently again this winter... the same people will be praising it. Human nature to believe what we want to believe and discredit the rest. We're all guilty of it, to some degree Quote Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 27, 2019 Report Share Posted November 27, 2019 PDX down to 47. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 27, 2019 Report Share Posted November 27, 2019 Enter Phil.Enter Sandman! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 27, 2019 Report Share Posted November 27, 2019 38 at the house. Chilly. PDX torching again I guess. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 27, 2019 Report Share Posted November 27, 2019 PDX down to 47.Best to focus on dew points. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 27, 2019 Report Share Posted November 27, 2019 Human nature to believe what we want to believe and discredit the rest. We're all guilty of it, to some degree I did not trust the EPS all summer... it was constantly showing very warm and ridgy and it was almost always wrong. Its been extremely accurate lately though... in terms of 850mb temps and precip anomalies. I think people ignoring the consistency of the EPS right now just don't want to believe it and don't like what it shows. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted November 27, 2019 Report Share Posted November 27, 2019 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted November 27, 2019 Report Share Posted November 27, 2019 12Z ECMWF still shows some light snow moving north on Saturday night into Sunday morning... Ha, so just 30 miles or so south of me, another nice event and almost none for K-Falls. Though sometimes the models have had difficulty dealing with the basin in previous events. Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted November 27, 2019 Report Share Posted November 27, 2019 Randy is Mossman. Definitely wasn’t directed at him. Some posters are sarcastic and not always literal I understand that. Some other posters are not and seem to think 1-2 bad model runs equals a winter cancel. 1 Quote Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 27, 2019 Report Share Posted November 27, 2019 We have been hearing about the GFS ensembles turning wet in the long range for almost 6 weeks and it has not happened. The EPS has never wavered showing much drier than normal. At some point... you have to assume that the pattern will not change until the EPS agrees that it will change. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 27, 2019 Report Share Posted November 27, 2019 What makes me the most nervous is this persistent split flow regime...gives me horrendous flashbacks of a few winters in the past where we could never really break the awful cycle. I did just order the snow plow and chains for my mower...I found a cheaper source than the dealer so I pulled the trigger! Should be here just in time for our massive arctic outbreak that starts the week before Christmas!! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 27, 2019 Report Share Posted November 27, 2019 What makes me the most nervous is this persistent split flow regime...gives me horrendous flashbacks of a few winters in the past where we could never really break the awful cycle. I did just order the snow plow and chains for my mower...I found a cheaper source than the dealer so I pulled the trigger! Should be here just in time for our massive arctic outbreak that starts the week before Christmas!! Yeah... the persistent split flow is what has me concerned about the ski season. As Shawnigan said... that pattern is really hard to break. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 27, 2019 Report Share Posted November 27, 2019 Enter Sandman!Exit LightEnter Night... Happy Thanksgiving! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted November 27, 2019 Report Share Posted November 27, 2019 Started a '19-'20 section on my signature, and notice how in a 24 hour event I neatly cleared out my normal for November. Curious if next month gives us a few more storms or if it's dry. I remember Dec 2010 also being pretty snowy after the big Thanksgiving snowstorm down here. >20" if I recall. 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 21 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted November 27, 2019 Report Share Posted November 27, 2019 SEA up to 47... and its 45 out here. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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