November 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Today

 

PDX 45/26

SLE  44/20

EUG 42/20

[Guest CulverJosh]

Today

 

PDX 45/26

SLE 44/20

EUG 42/20

Fake cold. Oh I said it.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Deweydog]

The EPS predicted this long ago.

I DON’T LIVE AT 850MB!!!!!!!

[TT-SEA]

The EPS predicted this long ago.

 

 

In late October... the EPS locked in on a very dry pattern overall and generally warm 850mb temps and did not waver.  

 

And now its a month later... and its been a very dry November and 850mb temps were warmer than normal for most of the month.    

 

There was lots of talk about GFS ensembles and GFS runs showing a return to a wet and active pattern back then and at times during the first half of November... but it did not happen.      

 

The EPS is now showing a somewhat active and much wetter pattern developing in about a week.    Not super wet... but closer to climo at least.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

In late October... the EPS locked in on a very dry pattern overall and generally warm 850mb temps and did not waver.  

 

And now its a month later... and its been a very dry November and 850mb temps were warmer than normal for most of the month.    

 

There was lots of talk about GFS ensembles and GFS runs showing a return to a wet and active pattern back then and at times during the first half of November... but it did not happen.      

 

The EPS is now showing a somewhat active and much wetter pattern developing in about a week.    Not super wet... but closer to climo at least.   

 

This is what the GFS and its ensembles are showing. Nothing out of the ordinary, just typical early winter storms. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Daily departures. 

 

PDX -7

SLE -10

EUG -11

 

The record Astoria tied was from the great 1896 cold snap. 

[TT-SEA]

This is what the GFS and its ensembles are showing. Nothing out of the ordinary, just typical early winter storms. 

 

The EPS can be total crap... but it has nailed the pattern for the last 5 or 6 weeks since the heavy rain pattern in mid-October ended.  

[Guest CulverJosh]

The EPS can be total crap... but it has nailed the pattern for the last 5 or 6 weeks since the heavy rain pattern in mid-October ended.

So, in closing. It is a crapshoot. Thanks for the amazing update.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Love these hard-takes, here on the western weather forums.

[TT-SEA]

So, in closing. It is a crapshoot. Thanks for the amazing update.

 

 

Not always.   When its very consistent... you can be pretty sure the pattern will be close to what its showing.  

 

If it shows what you want... you guys love it.   When it doesn't... its mocked.   But I would not ignore it when its consistent.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Down to 28 already.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

NWS going with a high of 35 Sunday at PDX.

Brrr!

[Timmy Supercell]

30 here, it should start falling like a rock in a moment.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Not always. When its very consistent... you can be pretty sure the pattern will be close to what its showing.

 

If it shows what you want... you guys love it. When it doesn't... its mocked. But I would not ignore it when its consistent.

I have never wishcasted. I take the EPS with a grain of salt, good or bad. I just don’t think it’s reliable. Sue me.

[GHweatherChris]

EPS is a result of model info, nothing else.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

I would agree.  That place is horrible.  There are many places on the West side I'd rather live.

 

Tri-Cities is fine if you like it dry and sunny and don't care much about trees or nearby mountains. Otherwise it lives up to its nickname Dry Sh*tt**s.

[FroYoBro]

I agree with others that the temperature is going in a downward motion. 

[TT-SEA]

I have never wishcasted. I take the EPS with a grain of salt, good or bad. I just don’t think it’s reliable. Sue me.

 

Its not reliable all the time.  

 

But its pretty simple... just look for consistency.    Literally every single run for 3 or 4 weeks showed extremely dry conditions and the same split flow pattern.   After about a week of that... it was pretty obvious it would be a very dry November and those GFS runs showing an active jet and lots of precip returning were going to be wrong.  Even the ECMWF operational over-promised heavy rain and mountain snow at times.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[FroYoBro]

Well at least it will feel like winter for a few hours if we see snow falling. Gonna be a fun Saturday night while it last! ❄

 

 

It's going to be a party on here tomorrow night!

 

 

Will my profile picture get changed?!?!?!?!?!?!?!? 

[Timmy Supercell]

It's going to be a party on here tomorrow night!

 

 

Will my profile picture get changed?!?!?!?!?!?!?!? 

 

Should I dig up my frog gif again? 

[Guest CulverJosh]

Culver will get 3 inches. My wife’s name is culver. Heyoooo

[Blizzard777]

Must have been some great Black Friday deals!

SOCKS! People want SOCKS!

two news channels earlier today were standing around the socks table 

they almost got me excited to go buy a pair!

[TT-SEA]

I also sense the precip comes in earlier and the models are probably underestimating it. Seems like that was a common theme last winter.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

PDX is gonna get a snowstorm. Maybe Salem. I’m getting excited for y’all.

[seattleweatherguy]

I also sense the precip comes in earlier and the models are probably underestimating it. Seems like that was a common theme last winter.

Maybe at least first flakes/flurries of the year?

[Guest CulverJosh]

I also sense the precip comes in earlier and the models are probably underestimating it. Seems like that was a common theme last winter.

Mark Nelsen is calling for 35 degree rain in pdx.

[Jesse]

Fake cold. Oh I said it.

Upper levels are still pretty cold. Ironically that is probably part of the reason the low level airmass has had more trouble finding its teeth with this setup.

[Perturbed Member]

Mark Nelsen is calling for 35 degree rain in pdx.

 

Yep here is his forecast:

 

"Tomorrow night a very weak weather system passes overhead, dropping light precipitation sometime after 10pm and that continues through early Sunday.  The first few hours it could fall as snow, but I doubt temperatures will drop down to freezing in most of the metro area.  That means a dusting at best for a few spots while we sleep.   After 1am or so, warming air overhead would change any snow to rain.  BUT, near and in the Gorge that cold wind could lead to light freezing rain on top of a few inches of snow .

A lot of uncertainty is due to how marginal we are temperature-wise.  It may just be too warm to see anything beyond some snow in the air tomorrow night for a couple of hours.  We’ll have a much better idea after we see how “warm” it gets tomorrow afternoon.

Regardless, roads in the metro area should be fine during this little event for 95% of us. 

SUNDAY DRIVING WEST OF THE CASCADES WILL FEATURE BARE PAVEMENT ONLY"

[Timmy Supercell]

PDX is gonna get a snowstorm.

 

35 degree rain in pdx.

 

This is going to be fun 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

35 and clear. Going to be another cold night.

[Timmy Supercell]

Already low 20's. Told ya there was a rock involved.

[Blizzard777]

35* Federal Way

How tall is the Tree Mossman??? 

[Deweydog]

Yep here is his forecast:

 

"Tomorrow night a very weak weather system passes overhead, dropping light precipitation sometime after 10pm and that continues through early Sunday. The first few hours it could fall as snow, but I doubt temperatures will drop down to freezing in most of the metro area. That means a dusting at best for a few spots while we sleep. After 1am or so, warming air overhead would change any snow to rain. BUT, near and in the Gorge that cold wind could lead to light freezing rainon top of a few inches of snow .

A lot of uncertainty is due to how marginal we are temperature-wise. It may just be too warm to see anything beyond some snow in the air tomorrow night for a couple of hours. We’ll have a much better idea after we see how “warm” it gets tomorrow afternoon.

Regardless, roads in the metro area should be fine during this little event for 95% of us.

SUNDAY DRIVING WEST OF THE CASCADES WILL FEATURE BARE PAVEMENT ONLY"

Mark nailed it again! Hard to see most spots being lower than 35-37 when light precip arrives.

[TacomaWaWx]

Most places across the region are in the low to mid 30s at 5pm. Going to be a cold one here tonight...no wind at all and down to 37.

[Guest CulverJosh]

13 here already. With some overriding snow tomorrow. Jealous anyone.

[Deweydog]

Christmas lights are ON!!!!!!

 

All outdoor adornment done before the first big snows.

[GHweatherChris]

13 here already. With some overriding snow tomorrow. Jealous anyone.

Tomorrow is not Sunday.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Tomorrow is not Sunday.

Shush. I meant late tomorrow/Sunday.