November 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Front Ranger]

41 and sunny in Seattle where my boys are at pre-Apple Cup party.

 

39 and very sunny here.

What's the difference between sunny and very sunny?

[BLI snowman]

That produced some impressive numbers, but the low of 5 at OLM at the end of Feb 2011 is the most incredible 21st century low temp outside of EUG's -10 with Dec 2013.

 

In terms of cold air advection, November 2010 is one of the few events this century that really felt old school to me in terms of how it played out. A daytime high in the 20s at PDX with no gorge winds, a 25/14 day at SEA, a single digit high at GEG.

 

For WA and NW OR, I think it's the standout arctic airmass of this decade. In a cruel twist of fate it was also the first 

[Timmy Supercell]

If it wasn’t for the chilly October you could also frame this current season with a 2014-2015 spin.

 

Yeah big difference being I had a wet October, actually almost as wet as 2016 at KLMT.

 

And pretty sure Nov 2014 didn't feature any major snowfall in southern OR. A couple traces here perhaps.

[BLI snowman]

Yeah it looks especially ugly on the euro and 3km NAM. Looks like a really brief snow to ZR/rain deal. Too bad it wasn't just a bit colder up there, pretty close to being a nice setup for a solid little snow event. 

 

We do quite well with failing at snow here by a hair.

[Deweydog]

#justice4justin

[snow_wizard]

In terms of cold air advection, November 2010 is one of the few events this century that really felt old school to me in terms of how it played out. A daytime high in the 20s at PDX with no gorge winds, a 25/14 day at SEA, a single digit high at GEG.

 

For WA and NW OR, I think it's the standout arctic airmass of this decade. In a cruel twist of fate it was also the first 

 

Yeah....that one was  classic.  The Puget Sound area had a flash freeze snowstorm and screaming north winds in the exposed areas.  At my place we had a period of pretty heavy snowfall with temps in the low 20s and decent NW winds.

[snow_wizard]

Must have been hard to pick the top 2 since there’s just SO MANY events to choose from.

 

We have had a lot of Arctic airmasses since 2005, but only a few were really noteworthy from an 850mb point of view.

[BLI snowman]

#justice4justin

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z9JHUU7ThlM

[TT-SEA]

What's the difference between sunny and very sunny?

 

Not much... its just very bright here.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At SLE November 2010 and December 2013 were the only legit upper level arctic airmasses. 

 

The only airmasses to achieve -10C or lower at 850mb over SLE were:

 

November 2010

December 2013

December 2016

February   2018

 

December 2013 bottomed out at -14.1C, November 2010 -12.5C.

 

 

The early January 2017 airmass bottomed out at -9.3C, and February 2011 -9.5C

[TacomaWaWx]

Yeah....that one was classic. The Puget Sound area had a flash freeze snowstorm and screaming north winds in the exposed areas. At my place we had a period of pretty heavy snowfall with temps in the low 20s and decent NW winds.

Yeah...we had 50-55mph N gusts here in November 2010. Those were the strongest north wind gusts I’ve ever seen. Still remember it pretty well even though I was 11 at the time.

[Perturbed Member]

We do quite well with failing at snow here by a hair.

 

Might drive a few miles west to Banks to check it out Sunday AM, 1-2 inches there is probably a decent bet. 

[Prairiedog]

Looks like an icy sounding to me...

Might be.  I'm wondering how much precip gets sucked up into such dry air.  Evap cooling could help keep temps lower.  Once the air gets saturated then that's when I'm curious how much precip will make it to the surface.  You have to figure, a lot of the early precip will be virga. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2010-11 was a pretty decent cold season, it just didn't work out well for snow at the lowest elevations of NW Oregon. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Beautiful day and love the crisp air.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Beautiful day and love the crisp air.

 

I agree, wish we could stay in this pattern for a few more days. 

[Gradient Keeper]

12z EPS similar to previous runs. Large scale pattern is progressing. Aleutian low and large, broad Gulf of Alaska trough sliding east and transitory ridge moving inland. Promising for a pattern change.

 

Day 5-10

[Perturbed Member]

18z NAM came in quite a bit wetter down here

 

 

vs 12z

 

 

 

Most of it falling as sleet/zr though

 

This map looks nice but it counts sleet as snow.

[MossMan]

A spike before a massive crash in mid December!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z NAM came in quite a bit wetter down here

 

 

vs 12z

 

 

 

Most of it falling as sleet/zr though

 

This map looks nice but it counts sleet as snow.

 

That snow looks way overdone for snow south of PDX. I bet the 3K NAM shows no snow for the valley south of PDX.

[GHweatherChris]

3K Nam showing 2-3 inches of snow/frozen precip here, I have a gut feeling this will overperform on snow totals.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

More precip probably means more aggressive WAA. 

[Perturbed Member]

That snow looks way overdone for snow south of PDX. I bet the 3K NAM shows no snow for the valley south of PDX.

 

It's just the tropical tidbits map. The pivotal one here looks more realistic

 

 

3km

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It's just the tropical tidbits map. The pivotal one here looks more realistic

 

 

3km

 

Looks like a solid event for the Harney Basin.

[Front Ranger]

We have had a lot of Arctic airmasses since 2005, but only a few were really noteworthy from an 850mb point of view.

 

2006-14 was really pretty good for the number of Arctic events it produced.

 

Since then has sucked for Arctic air, but has done pretty well for lowland snow events (at least since 2016).

[SilverFallsAndrew]

My friend taking a little hike around the Crooked River Gorge.

 

[FroYoBro]

I'm hoping the freezing rain isn't a big deal Sunday morning because I have to drive around town then.

 

I'm guessing the roads will be fine around here though. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2006-14 was really pretty good for the number of Arctic events it produced.

 

Since then has sucked for Arctic air, but has done pretty well for lowland snow events (at least since 2016).

 

Yeah I could live with the 2015/16-present cold season climate. Would like to see cooler/wetter springs and cooler summers. 

[Dave]

At SLE November 2010 and December 2013 were the only legit upper level arctic airmasses. 

 

The only airmasses to achieve -10C or lower at 850mb over SLE were:

 

November 2010

December 2013

December 2016

February   2018

 

December 2013 bottomed out at -14.1C, November 2010 -12.5C.

 

 

The early January 2017 airmass bottomed out at -9.3C, and February 2011 -9.5C

What were the 850's over SLE for Feb 2014? That was pretty chilly at the surface.

[Timmy Supercell]

Yeah I could live with the 2015/16-present cold season climate. Would like to see cooler/wetter springs and cooler summers. 

 

And cooler summers are not really cold, unless you live in the UK. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What were the 850's over SLE for Feb 2014? That was pretty chilly at the surface.

 

Not that cold. I think around -8C or so. Tons of low level cold air though. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Wow I didn't realize how chilly it is today, still just 36 here after a low of 22.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Cold day in the Rogue Valley. Medford only 32 at 1pm. Bet the air quality is awful today down there. 

[TT-SEA]

"Sailgating" on Lake Washington next to Husky stadium...

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

"Sailgating" on Lake Washington next to Husky stadium...

 

 

The twins on that boat?

[TT-SEA]

The twins on that boat?

 

 

No idea... I have lost contact with them.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow I didn't realize how chilly it is today, still just 36 here after a low of 22.

 

35 here after a low of 23. This will be our 4th straight day with a high in the 30s. 

[Jesse]

Cold day in the Rogue Valley. Medford only 32 at 1pm. Bet the air quality is awful today down there.

Low of only 32 at Roseburg.

[GHweatherChris]

[TT-SEA]

If they are, probably having some beers !

I also assume they have been partaking in the festivities.