umadbro Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 Full on drama entertainment tonight. Great stuff kids. Keep at it. 1 Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 I can only post what the guy gives. Mat gave what we can now.Which is most likely the same models information we are able to obtain. Unless of course, your insider lives in an alternate timeline. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest CulverJosh Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 Which is most likely the same models information we are able to obtain. Unless of course, your insider lives in an alternate timeline.It’s how you interpret them Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 It’s how you interpret themWhat's exciting about that? We have the CFS to do the same thing! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest CulverJosh Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 What's exciting about that? We have the CFS to do the same thing!Keeps getting pushed out. But New Years is the latest time this is happening. Just watch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 Probably the best way to show the ECMWF weeklies is to show the PNA graph. I'll bet it's been ages since we had a Janaury with -PNA the entire month. The last few updates of the weeklies have been mostly good, but this is the best yet. The 500mb mean and control both show some real cold in January as well. 4 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 Keeps getting pushed out. But New Years is the latest time this is happening. Just watch.New Years is when it strikes us or when the pattern starts to evolve? Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 12z ECMWF. BIG CHANGE Day 6-8. Energy south of Aleutians just holds back not charging east as with previous runs. floop-ecmwf-2019122312.500h_anom.na(1).gifOutside slider. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 Just a warning. I'm not going to even bother posting on here if the Debbie Downers continue to insist on ruining this for everybody. We have a very legit shot at a great January. Be happy! 8 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 New Years is when it strikes us or when the pattern starts to evolve? I'm betting the models will really start to crystallize on something good over the next two days. The signs are there we have nearly arrived. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 Probably the best way to show the ECMWF weeklies is to show the PNA graph. I'll bet it's been ages since we had a Janaury with -PNA the entire month. The last few updates of the weeklies have been mostly good, but this is the best yet. The 500mb mean and control both show some real cold in January as well.Yeah, looking good! Nice solid negative dip around the middle of the month. Looks like a retrogression signal from the smaller dip earlier in the month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 Got up to 41, down to 31 now. Feelz like winter. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 Just a warning. I'm not going to even bother posting on here if the Debbie Downers continue to insist on ruining this for everybody. We have a very legit shot at a great January. Be happy! I mean, it's pretty realistic to be pessimistic about things. It's how it usually goes here. But obviously I'm hoping for the best. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 I'd like to take a look at the R2D2 model Dewey was talking about last winter. Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 Got up to 41, down to 31 now. Feelz like winter. It's nice to have these little chilly interludes until the big stuff arrives. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 Nice day on Mt. Hood. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 I'd like to take a look at the R2D2 model Dewey was talking about last winter.I want to see the new Baby Yoda model! 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 There are some serious cold and hot weenies here. I’m just glad most of us are in the middle ground to keep us sane. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 I mean, it's pretty realistic to be pessimistic about things. It's how it usually goes here. But obviously I'm hoping for the best. It gets old. We have had some decent stuff in recent years and the table is set perfectly for this winter. I suppose the way the models have been so erratic is giving people a headache, but that's par for the course before most cold snaps. The models often rush things too much early on. The ECMWF is showing a good indication of the MJO emerging in the Maritime Continent region as we get into January. Yet another good sign. This has a very good shot at working out. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 Probably the best way to show the ECMWF weeklies is to show the PNA graph. I'll bet it's been ages since we had a Janaury with -PNA the entire month. The last few updates of the weeklies have been mostly good, but this is the best yet. The 500mb mean and control both show some real cold in January as well.Looks like the last weeklies were better though. Ryan Maue@RyanMaue·5hJanuary 2020 is warmer in the most recent EPS 46-day forecast. Map is difference b/t today's forecast output for next 4-weeks vs. last Thursday's model output. Canada trends much colder. Not too surprising Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 Looks like the last weeklies were better though. Ryan Maue@RyanMaue·5hJanuary 2020 is warmer in the most recent EPS 46-day forecast. Map is difference b/t today's forecast output for next 4-weeks vs. last Thursday's model output. Canada trends much colder. Not too surprising EMgB9hHWwAUafDu.png Exactly...it's not gonna happen. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 There are some serious cold and hot weenies here. I’m just glad most of us are in the middle ground to keep us sane. I just get ticked off when it's pretty obvious something good is going to happen and people insist on being so negative. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 Looks like the last weeklies were better though. Ryan Maue@RyanMaue·5hJanuary 2020 is warmer in the most recent EPS 46-day forecast. Map is difference b/t today's forecast output for next 4-weeks vs. last Thursday's model output. Canada trends much colder. Not too surprising EMgB9hHWwAUafDu.png That sure doesn't look right to me. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 Exactly...it's not gonna happen.We actually have no clue what is going to happen. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 I just get ticked off when it's pretty obvious something good is going to happen and people insist on being so negative.Don't let it get to you man. 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 That sure doesn't look right to me.Maybe there was more sustained cold before or more extreme cold? This is the overall average change for the month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 Exactly...it's not gonna happen. Just wait and see. Sheesh. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 There is 2 inches of snow on the ground at my cabin and that is the least amount there since 2011. Mountains really need to get in gear! This Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 We actually have no clue what is going to happen. It's going to get cold in January. Plan on it. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 I just get ticked off when it's pretty obvious something good is going to happen and people insist on being so negative.I hear ya. In the end, I just let the models speak because that will be the irrefutable facts and are louder than any negativity. I have a lot of faith that we could be in for another back-loaded winter, just have to see. Stay positive Wiz. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 Anyway...there is no question the 500mb mean looks better than the previous ECMWF weekly runs. This is what it looks like around January 10. Around the same time the control shows a blast. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 Looks like the last weeklies were better though. Ryan Maue@RyanMaue·5hJanuary 2020 is warmer in the most recent EPS 46-day forecast. Map is difference b/t today's forecast output for next 4-weeks vs. last Thursday's model output. Canada trends much colder. Not too surprising EMgB9hHWwAUafDu.pngI'm confused. That doesn't look anything like what was posted in my group. I dunno? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 Anyway...there is no question the 500mb mean looks better than the previous ECMWF weekly runs. This is what it looks like around January 10. Around the same time the control shows a blast.That is certainly better. The base of the block further north, better amplification. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 So many threats. And I can interpret the models in a way that makes them look the way I want them too!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 I hear ya. In the end, I just let the models speak because that will be the irrefutable facts and are louder than any negativity. I have a lot of faith that we could be in for another back-loaded winter, just have to see. Stay positive Wiz. I am positive, but obviously nobody believes me. I have been watching this for more years than nearly anyone on here and all I can say is the table is set about as good as it can be. Obviously people want to let their shitty negative attitude rule their forecasting. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 24, 2019 Report Share Posted December 24, 2019 That is certainly better. The base of the block further north, better amplification. I was going to say we are finally going to be doing away with the problem of too much energy digging into the SW and just off the coast of CA. 2 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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