December 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Gradient Keeper]

Has anyone seen any Alaskan Robins(Varied Thrush) yet in their yards? January 2017 we had some. We all know what happened then.

 

00z NAM (New Years Eve) in 23 hours 39 minutes

[Prairiedog]

Has anyone seen any Alaskan Robins(Varied Thrush) yet in their yards? January 2017 we had some. We all know what happened then.

 

00z NAM (New Years Eve) in 23 hours 39 minutes

I've had them since late Nov.  They're late.  Usually I have a few start to straggle in around the second week of Nov.  No foothill and mid elevation snow to chase them down.  I've had one regular and two others that jump back and forth between my neighbors eating cracked corn.  Usually by this time of year I have maybe a dozen Varied Thrushes.  Been a slow year so far.  Need snow!

[Timmy Supercell]

Has anyone seen any Alaskan Robins(Varied Thrush) yet in their yards? January 2017 we had some. We all know what happened then.

 

00z NAM (New Years Eve) in 23 hours 39 minutes

 

A marmot and jack rabbit up the hill, which I saw a few days before my Jan 2017 storm. 

[Gradient Keeper]

I've had them since late Nov.  They're late.  Usually I have a few start to straggle in around the second week of Nov.  No foothill and mid elevation snow to chase them down.  I've had one regular and two others that jump back and forth between my neighbors eating cracked corn.  Usually by this time of year I have maybe a dozen Varied Thrushes.  Been a slow year so far.  Need snow!

Yeah I figured as much. They along with the Flicker are the most beautiful birds there are. The markings and colors are just amazing.

 

00z ECMWF (MLK Day) in 507 hours 37 minutes

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like the ensembles were relatively unchanged with the explosive 18z run.

[Gradient Keeper]

If there's a weather forum that encourages casual racism and drunken shitposting I'd check there.

LMAO 

[GHweatherChris]

I thought Tim said we were just looking at a bunch of warm boring drizzle fronts.

Yea, there was some foothill catfighting going on.

[TT-SEA]

Yea, there was some foothill catfighting going on.

 

 

I definitely said that the next 10 days was all warm front drizzle.    Look it up.   

[Jesse]

Yea, there was some foothill catfighting going on.

Better than cathill footfighting I guess.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Looks like the ensembles were relatively unchanged with the explosive 18z run.

The really long range ensemble looks like the ECMWF weeklies for the same time period.

[GHweatherChris]

I definitely said that the next 10 days was all warm front drizzle. Look it up.

I didn't say you did, Randy did. I was just reminding him of the cat fight.

[GHweatherChris]

Better than cathill footfighting I guess.

That might have been what it was, it was funny either way.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

The really long range ensemble looks like the ECMWF weeklies for the same time period.

 

Wetterzentrale not loading for me. Anybody else?

[kokaneekidz]

I believe yesterday and those "models" were the ultimate dead cat bounce if I ever saw one. LMFAO?!!!!!!!!!!!

[Gradient Keeper]

This may be unpopular, so click that -negative button, but let's lay off Tim just a bit. In the spirit of Christmas lay off a Tim just a bit? Something like that. He wasn't wrong when he recently said the EPS was a step backwards. It was. It was in fact a significant step back. He hasn't just posted about warm drizzle. He has some partiality in some aspects of his analysis just like others that he could work on, but he's relatively impartial too. I don't see him just waiting to post only things we don't like. I'd think if the EPS turns favorable/cold he would post that also. I think some people are a wee bit testier than usual due to the models not looking real fantastic right now which is silly. Yep. Alright then. Feel free to disagree with me that's alright.

[Front Ranger]

In Silverton we had a few inches the day before Super Bowl Sunday. It had melted by the following day, the arctic front didn't make it here until Monday afternoon if I recall. 

 

Yeah, I remember areas south of OLM had a decent storm before the one that hit Super Bowl Sunday.

 

Got 5-6" with that, and snow stuck around for almost a week afterward.

[jakeinthevalley]

Has anyone seen any Alaskan Robins(Varied Thrush) yet in their yards? January 2017 we had some. We all know what happened then.

 

00z NAM (New Years Eve) in 23 hours 39 minutes

Had a couple each morning over the weekend messing around with some leaf piles I haven't disposed of yet.

 

My daffodils are at least 2" high as well

[SnarkyGoblin]

Maybe we should get our govt to truck in fake snow for us.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/30/world/europe/moscow-snow-warm.html

[Front Ranger]

I believe yesterday and those "models" were the ultimate dead cat bounce if I ever saw one. LMFAO?!!!!!!!!!!!

 

Dead puppy bounce.

[Front Ranger]

I am trying to remember the last time I had a wet January....I know 2012 was wet, we had about 20" of precip that month. 

 

2018 or 2016? Silverton was wetter than normal both those Januaries.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2018 or 2016? Silverton was wetter than normal both those Januaries.

 

I don't remember 2016 off hand, I'll have to go through my files. January 2018 was about 12" here, A little above average, but not really wet. I should have been more specific, I meant a well above average January. Which for January here would be about 15"+. 

[Gradient Keeper]

So basically based on the Weeklies and all Ensembles we don't even need to look at any models until next Wednesday. Nothing favorable should happen until near or after the 9th. What are we going to do with ourselves the next 10 days!!!!

[Weiner Warrior]

I actually appreciate Tiny Tim especially at Christmas time. He tells the truth even when warm drizzle is no fun

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The 2016-17 wet season had 3 extremely wet months, October, February,and March. November was above average with around 13", but both December and January were a bit drier than average. 

[Jesse]

I actually appreciate Tiny Tim especially at Christmas time. He tells the truth even when warm drizzle is no fun

Yeah, pretty much everyone else here is a big phat liar.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Phil?

 

[Jesse]

So basically based on the Weeklies and all Ensembles we don't even need to look at any models until next Wednesday. Nothing favorable should happen until near or after the 9th. What are we going to do with ourselves the next 10 days!!!!

Might be a good time to hit the slopes, or even drive up the hill for some sledding/snowball fights.

[Gradient Keeper]

Might be a good time to hit the slopes, or even drive up the hill for some sledding/snowball fights.

[Gradient Keeper]

Phil?

 

Super Nina next Winter!

[MossMan]

Tim knows I’m just giving him a hard time...I like to do that once a year for old times sake!

[Cloud]

This may be unpopular, so click that -negative button, but let's lay off Tim just a bit. In the spirit of Christmas lay off a Tim just a bit? Something like that. He wasn't wrong when he recently said the EPS was a step backwards. It was. It was in fact a significant step back. He hasn't just posted about warm drizzle. He has some partiality in some aspects of his analysis just like others that he could work on, but he's relatively impartial too. I don't see him just waiting to post only things we don't like. I'd think if the EPS turns favorable/cold he would post that also. I think some people are a wee bit testier than usual due to the models not looking real fantastic right now which is silly. Yep. Alright then. Feel free to disagree with me that's alright.

He's a realist, people may not like it but he calls spade a spade and I respect the hell out of that. Does not have to be a popular opinion.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

Nobody complained about Tim last February when, day after day, he posted EPS maps showing cold for the PNW.

[GHweatherChris]

He's a realist, people may not like it but he calls spade a spade and I respect the hell out of that. Does not have to be a popular opinion.

This is laughable, but that is just my opinion.

[Dave]

Has anyone seen any Alaskan Robins(Varied Thrush) yet in their yards? January 2017 we had some. We all know what happened then.

 

00z NAM (New Years Eve) in 23 hours 39 minutes

I see them all the time. They have the coolest chirp.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

He's a realist, people may not like it but he calls spade a spade and I respect the hell out of that. Does not have to be a popular opinion.

 

Yeah I agree to an extent, but he also intentionally pushes people's buttons. I don't really have a problem with it because he can take what he dishes, but let's not start with the "Tim is an innocent victim" crap. He knows what he does too, and that's why he tolerates people throwing it back at him. I truly believe he enjoys the back and forth. I do not think he takes this forum as seriously as his 30,000 posts would indicate. 

[GHweatherChris]

Yeah I agree to an extent, but he also intentionally pushes people's buttons. I don't really have a problem with it because he can take what he dishes, but let's not start with the "Tim is an innocent victim" crap. He knows what he does too, and that's why he tolerates people throwing it back at him. I truly believe he enjoys the back and forth. I do not think he takes this forum as seriously as his 30,000 posts would indicate.

Well said.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Saw a couple flickers yesterday when I was working in the yard. I love them except when they decide to pound on the house on occasion. I had to get a couple barn cats to control the rodent population, unfortunately I had to take down all our bird feeders. 

[Cloud]

Yeah I agree to an extent, but he also intentionally pushes people's buttons. I don't really have a problem with it because he can take what he dishes, but let's not start with the "Tim is an innocent victim" crap. He knows what he does too, and that's why he tolerates people throwing it back at him. I truly believe he enjoys the back and forth. I do not think he takes this forum as seriously as his 30,000 posts would indicate. 

 

I never said he's the victim, I think he does a good job portraying it on his own a lot of times and I don't disagree that he intentionally pushes  people's button, he does it because he knows he'll get a response out of it 99% of the time. This still does not change the fact that when it comes to showing what's on the models, he doesn't sugarcoat things, that's what I was referring to. 

[Cloud]

This is laughable, but that is just my opinion.

It gets the same amount of respect with almost all the other members posting on here, that's my opinion. Except for maybe Buster dude.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah I agree to an extent, but he also intentionally pushes people's buttons. I don't really have a problem with it because he can take what he dishes, but let's not start with the "Tim is an innocent victim" crap. He knows what he does too, and that's why he tolerates people throwing it back at him. I truly believe he enjoys the back and forth. I do not think he takes this forum as seriously as his 30,000 posts would indicate. 

 

All true. 

 

I think many of us old-timers spend lots of time pushing buttons because we know each other so well.